Donald Trump's chances decline in major election predictions

Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have been reduced, according to leading election forecasts.

Although Trump's prospects have improved steadily in recent days, with one shift in his favor as he briefly overtook Kamala Harris in the polls, his momentum appears to be slowing.

The former president previously trailed Harris on October 18, when FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave him a 47 percent chance of winning the election, compared to Harris' 53 percent. Three days later, on October 21, the predictions were reversed, giving Trump a 53% chance of winning the election, compared to Harris' 47%.

However, forecasts now show that Trump's chances are starting to decline, with the poll giving the former president a 51 percent chance of winning the election, compared to Harris' 49 percent.

Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

Former President Donald Trump, Republican presidential candidate, speaks during a church town hall with Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones at Christ Chapel Zebulon, Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024, in Zebulon, Georgia. Trump's chances of winning… Former Republican President Donald Trump speaks during a church town hall with Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones at Christ Chapel Zebulon, Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024, in Zebulon, Wash. Georgia. Trump's chances of winning the election have declined slightly. More AP/Alex Brandon

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts aren't the only ones showing that Trump's chances have declined in recent days. According to The Economist's forecast, Trump's chances of victory have declined from a high of 56% on Wednesday to 53% on Thursday.

However, forecasts from pollster Nate Silver show that Trump's chances have increased in recent days, from 50.1% on October 17 to 53.1% on October 24.

This comes amid a positive week for Trump in the polls. Over the past month, four major national polls have shown the former president overtaking Harris. These include polls from Fox News, ActiVote, Redfield and Wilton Strategies and NBC News. However, all showed Trump's lead within the margin of error.

But not all polls show Trump in the lead. Other recent polls, including those from YouGov and Morning Consult, have given Harris a lead of as much as 4 points. The most recent TIPP Insights poll, conducted October 21-23, shows Harris leading by 3 points. The margin of error was not immediately available.

TIPP Insights was recognized by the Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll.

Still, the FiveThirtyEight poll, which gives Harris a 1.7-point national lead, shows that Harris' standing in battleground states, which are crucial to winning elections, is in decline.

According to 538's tracker, Harris leads by a slim margin of between 0.2 and 0.7 points in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. A month ago, she led in the three states by as much as 2.4 points. Meanwhile, Trump leads by between 0.9 and 1.8 points in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. He also leads by 0.2 points in Pennsylvania, where Harris had led since surging to the top of the Democratic ticket.

Silver's forecast shows that if Harris won only Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, she would have a 0.6 percent chance of winning the election. With Pennsylvania, his odds increased to 98.9 percent. But according to Silver's model, the probability of this scenario occurring is only 2.9%.

RealClearPolitics' forecasts showed Trump winning in every battleground state, giving him 312 Electoral College votes to Harris' 227, while Silver's model showed Trump had a 24% chance of winning every battleground state , which made it the most likely scenario.

But the polls are so close that the race remains uncertain. “The race has gone from almost a toss-up to a real toss-up,” Jon Parker, a lecturer in American studies at Keele University in the United Kingdom, told Newsweek last week. However, he added that this “does not suggest that either campaign is a winner or a loser.”

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