A powerful Prabowo presidency could prove disastrous for Papua

The Indonesian presidential election took place on February 14, 2024. Prabowo Subianto's electoral victory was accompanied by surprise success in almost all provinces of Papua.

Prabowos' landslide victory comes as a shock because the former general is a deeply unpopular figure in the region. Papua has seen decades of conflict over its ambitions for local independence and brutal military repression, and distrust of military personnel is widespread. So why did Prabowo achieve such a victory?

The good and the bad: Jokowis' policy in the Papua region

A plausible explanation for Prabowos' electoral success in Papua could be the Jokowi effect, named after incumbent President Joko Jokowi Widodo. Jokowi's eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is Prabowo's running mate. Even though Jokowi cannot officially support them, Prabowo and Gibran are considered continuity candidates. Jokowi's supporters therefore have a weakness for Prabowo.

Additionally, Jokowi is popular for his stance on Papua. Many residents view his progress in the region as encouraging. Jokowi visit Papua at least 14 times more than any previous Indonesian president, demonstrating his commitment to the region. During his two terms in office, he sought to invest in the Papua region through infrastructure projects such as highways And airports. Papua was also offered the opportunity to host the Indonesia National Games in October 2021 in a bid to showcase the administration's dedication to the region's development and dispel public skepticism over security.

But Jokowi's approach to Papua has been heavily criticized, particularly because of his intense military operations. The government has stressed the need to maintain public order, particularly in the face of separatist groups in the region. Sometimes these military operations targeted civilians.

As recently as February 2024, a viral video showed a group of Indonesian soldiers subjecting a West Papuan man to torture in a barrel filled with water after a military raid in the Omukia and Gome districts of Central Papua province. The soldiers repeatedly hit, elbowed and kicked the man, cutting him with a knife as he sat in a pool of his own blood.

On the one hand, Papua residents should not ignore the progress made in the region through infrastructure development, reputation improvement and repeat visits, but on the other hand, neither should they ignore the lack of constructive dialogue with local Papuans regarding the continuation of the peace process. persecutions civilians by the Indonesian army.

Prabowos tainted the past in Papua

The question is whether Prabowo's presidency will be different for the Papua region. The simple answer is no. Some analysts, journalists and human rights activists, as well as some local Papuans, believe the situation in the region could become even more dire.

This concern is largely attributable to Prabowo's past human rights record as well as his strongman personality, reminiscent of his years as an army general under the previous president and dictator. Suharto. West Papua was one of Prabowo's old stomping grounds, and he was reportedly involved in civilian activities. death during the Mapeduma hostage crisis.

THE Folding The hostage crisis occurred in 1996 when the Free Papua Movement (OPM) took 26 hostages as part of the struggle for Papua's independence from Indonesia. During the rescue operations, Indonesian army special forces reportedly used a helicopter usually flown by the Red Cross, ultimately misleading the OPM. This caused several civilian casualties.

However, these allegations are not substantial. Besides, Prabowo might now be a changed man. However, his recent actions provide indications of what a Prabowo presidency will look like for Papua once he enters the presidential palace in October 2024.

The stance Prabowo took towards Freeport McMoran, a major US mining company in West Papua, during his 2019 campaign should set off some alarm bells. Prabowo called the company a big investor that we should not bother helping, even though the company has a reputation for violating the rights of the indigenous population and local Papuan workers, as well as contributing to the degradation of the environment in the region.

Additionally, there are reports that Prabowo intervened to prevent a lawsuit filed by his own assistant against the company. This should worry local Papuans and environmental activists who oppose mining operations. A Prabowo administration is unlikely to heed local sentiments. Those who express disagreement with mining activities can be persecuted and repressed.

A closer look at Prabowos' planned policy for Papua

It does not appear that Prabowo's disregard for the well-being of Papuan residents has changed in the five years between 2019 and 2024. debate in January 2024, his response to a question about his policy towards Papua was very ambiguous and unconvincing.

Prabowo did mention accelerating economic development in Papua, but there were notable signs that he would implement a much more strict version of Jokowi's developmental strategy. His plan to strengthen the security apparatus in Papua certainly means more bad news for local Papuans. This was particularly disconcerting because it came from a former soldier. It appears that he has not ruled out the possibility of increased troop development in the region.

While assuring that human rights remained a priority in resolving the conflict in the Papua region, Prabowos refused to respond to a request from Human Rights Watch. quiz on key issues facing the Indonesian population as a whole has shown its low respect for human rights. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that Prabowo will succeed in effectively protecting human rights in Papua, given his past and current record of inaction.

Despite the optimism that Jokowi will succeed in eradicating Prabowo's aggressive nature, the reality is that Prabowo is a nationalist and a military man at heart. He made it clear that he would increase military activity in Papua without regard for the local population. A policy of reinforced militarization in the region is something that should not be neglected. There will be adverse consequences for the people of Paupan under the Prabowo administration.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policies of Fair Observers.