Escalation between Israel and Iran pushes Turkey to begin negotiations with the PKK

Over the past month, Turkish officials in Ankara have been deeply concerned about the regional escalation between Israel and Iran.

In several speeches, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of trying to extend its war on Gaza to Turkey's borders and said the region was engulfed in a ring of fire that could threaten Turkish territorial unity.

Many in Türkiye did not take Erdogan's remarks regarding Israeli territorial expansion seriously. Israel's focus appears to be on Iran and its allies, including possible strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure.

And then something more shocking happened: Devlet Bahceli, Erdogan's nationalist ally, a key member of the ruling coalition and chairman of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), publicly called on his enemy to speak in Parliament .

After three weeks of overtures in parliament towards the Turkish opposition and the pro-Kurdish People's Equality and Democracy (Dem) Party, Bahceli declared that Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party ( PKK), was to be allowed to give a speech calling on the armed group to disarm.

Bahceli also added that by doing so, Öcalan could be allowed to use an exception under the European Convention on Human Rights to be released from prison early.

The MHP leader also said a new wave of democratic and economic reforms could be used to satisfy the Kurdish electorate in the process of ending the decades-long conflict between Turkey and the PKK.

“Strengthening the home front”

As Bahceli delivered his speech, which he called a development that could change the course of Turkish history, everyone in Ankara began to ask: why now?

All experts interviewed by Middle East Eye said they do not believe Ankara took this step to gain immediate political benefits, such as a new constitution that would allow Erdogan to serve another term in 2028.

Ankara's ruling elites view Israel as a destabilizing force in the region and anticipate a possible Iran-Israel conflict, Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank Brookings Institute, told MEE.

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To strengthen their domestic front, they plan to resolve the Kurdish question through an agreement with Öcalan and possibly with the PKK, recognizing the importance of stability within their own borders.

Aydintasbas added that resolving the long-standing Kurdish question would reduce Turkey's main vulnerability in the region, where it would no longer be perpetually tied to operations and security concerns.

More importantly, Turkey views PKK-affiliated Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq as potential tools for its rivals, including Israel and Iran, and wants to neutralize that threat, she said.

Since 2016, Turkey has carried out a series of attacks in northern Syria that have deprived the PKK's Syrian Kurdish affiliates of a continuous stretch of territory along the Turkish border.

Turkish armed forces captured Jarablus, Afrin, al-Bab and other strategic border towns, and have since occupied them with the help of allied Syrian rebels.

Intensive ground and air campaigns have meanwhile pushed the PKK from Iraq's northern borders with Turkey, allowing Ankara to establish several military outposts in Iraqi Kurdistan to prevent infiltration.

Mesut Yegen, a professor specializing in Kurdish culture, told MEE that the Turkish government believes it is in a position of strength and stressed that the 2023 elections showed that Kurdish voters were no longer the kingmakers they had been. previously been in domestic politics.

Yet Yegen says the government has still not been able to achieve all of its goals in northern Iraq due to political disagreements with Baghdad. Meanwhile, PKK affiliates were still dominant in northeastern Syria, with support from the United States.

“Iranian influence in decline”

Kurdish national representation in Türkiye is strong, he noted, with the Dem Party becoming the third party in Parliament.

Kurds could find more space for themselves as Iran's influence wanes in the region due to Israeli attacks on the Iran-led Resistance Axis alliance, Yegen said .

Ankara does not want the PKK to take advantage of this power vacuum [created by Israel] since October 7.

“Ankara’s ruling elites view Israel as a destabilizing force in the region and anticipate a possible Iran-Israel conflict”

-Asli Aydintasbas, Brookings Institute

Turkish political elites increasingly understand the Kurdish insurgency as a never-ending conflict with no clear outcome, Aydintasbas added.

Yildiray Ogur, a Turkish journalist who closely follows Kurdish developments, told MEE that the 2015 peace process with the PKK failed because the People's Defense Units (YPG), a Syrian force perceived by Turkey as indistinguishable from the PKK, have managed to seize vast areas of territory. territory in northern Syria with the help of Iran and Bashar al-Assad's Syria, which easily ceded control at the time.

Many in Ankara still accuse Iran of harming peace talks by encouraging the growth of the YPG.

Ogur says Israel's war against Lebanon, where it struck Hezbollah and killed most of its top leaders, has broken Iranian nails in the region, while Tehran is more concerned about the prospect of immediate escalation and direct with Israel.

He added that this time the Turkish government is specifically focusing on disarming the PKK in Turkey, similar to how the group ended its armed struggle in Iran in 2011.

Bahceli is risking his entire career for this company, he told MEE. Everyone should view Bahcelis' statements regarding Öcalan's possible release as public gestures and guarantees ensuring Öcalans' confidence in the process.

However, Bahceli's proposal will not be easy to accept. The PKK attack on a Turkish defense company on Wednesday, a day after Bahcelis' speech, killed five people and soured the mood. The PKK later announced that the attack was carried out unilaterally by the gunmen and was not a response to Bahceli's call.

“No choice but to coexist”

Roj Girasun, a political pollster, said that although Bahceli's status as a leader of Turkish nationalism legitimizes the new initiative in the public eye, the vast majority of society has become more Turkish nationalist over the past decade.

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He said Bahceli wants this process to bear fruit very quickly, as Omer Öcalan, Democratic Party MP and nephew of Abdullah Öcalan, was allowed to visit the imprisoned PKK leader for the first time in four years.

This time, the process would aim to bring more democratic rights and freedoms to the Kurds, but also more social protection, Girasun told MEE.

The government could use existing laws to strengthen Kurds' cultural rights, for example in language or by creating more Kurdish institutions at universities.

Girasun said Kurds primarily demand teaching in their native language in schools, and polls indicate that it is a demand that enjoys the greatest support among the Turkish public compared to other Kurdish issues.

Others also believe that broader Kurdish society needs to be convinced that the government-led process is a genuine effort and that Selahattin Demirtas, a popular imprisoned Kurdish leader, should be allowed to play a role.

For example, Kani Torun, a former ambassador and MP from the opposition Future Party, told MEE that the government must consider taking steps to strengthen Kurdish civil politics and engage Demirtas in creating a public narrative aimed at countering the perception that which the armed struggle of the PKK is the only option for the Kurds of Turkey.

There could be car accidents during the negotiations and public opinion would have to be taken care of, he said. And there must be awareness among the [Kurdish] elements in northern Syria.

Torun says that if the initiative succeeds, the government could try to realize its plan for a new constitution in the future.

Girasun, for his part, said that Kurdish democratic political representation could become the ultimate winner in this process, as Demirtas could convince Kurdish public opinion to oppose armed struggle.

But, Yegen warns, if the new initiative fails, the government could return to the harsh security-focused methods it has used against the PKK and its offshoots.

Turks and Kurds have little choice but to coexist, given the large Kurdish population in Turkey and beyond its borders in Syria and Iraq, Aydintasbas said.