The EU prepares for a Trump victory

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European capitals are racing to assess the bloc's biggest vulnerabilities if Donald Trump is re-elected to the White House, with polls suggesting the contest would tilt in the former president's favor.

Senior EU officials are holding daily meetings to determine areas where a Trump presidency could cause the most pain for the bloc, sources close to the negotiations said.

They said topics under discussion included how to resist a barrage of tariffs, compensate for the end of U.S. aid to Ukraine and maintain sanctions against Russia if Washington lifts its restrictions.

Everyone is taking everything much more seriously, a senior European diplomat said. We're trying to make sure we're not taken by surprise.

Preparations include formal discussions between EU ambassadors and staff of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, as well as informal groups of senior EU diplomats examining possible strategies.

Trump has pledged to impose flat 10% tariffs on all imports and is critical of U.S. support for kyiv and is skeptical of NATO, which supports Europe's defense.

Polls suggest he is in a dead heat against Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of the Nov. 5 election and has overtaken his Democratic rival as the candidate Americans trust most on the economy, according to a Financial Times survey published this week.

From my personal point of view, we will be in trouble. Big problems, another European diplomat said of a Trump victory. This disruptive element will be enormous, as will the unpredictability.

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Charles Michel, the president of the European Council who represents EU member states, told the FT that a Trump victory would lead to immediate decisions by the new US administration that would have an immediate impact, a huge impact at short term in Europe, of course.

Michel added: If it's Trump, it would be another wake-up call that we need to do more to take control of our destiny.

Officials fear that the tariffs threatened by Trump could reduce EU exports to the United States by around 150 billion a year.

The commission, which manages trade policy, has already drawn up a strategy to offer Trump a quick deal on increasing U.S. imports to the EU and only resort to targeted retaliation if he opts for tariffs. punitive customs.

Goldman Sachs predicted this week that the euro could fall as much as 10% against the dollar if Trump imposed widespread tariffs and cut domestic taxes, while a study by the German Economic Institute in Cologne said that a trade war could reduce GDP. of the EU's largest economy by 1.5 percent.

EU officials' biggest short-term security concern is how to continue supporting Ukraine if Trump cuts off the flow of arms that has played a critical role in helping kyiv thwart the Russian invasion .

The EU has provided more financial support to Ukraine than the United States. But American weapons stocks and capabilities are much larger than those of European countries. Officials briefed on the discussions say there is no possibility that EU militaries can match what the United States provides.

The bloc's officials are also deeply concerned about the possibility that a Trump administration would lift sanctions on Russia. That would raise the question of how much economic pressure the EU could maintain on Moscow without U.S. support, even if Japan, Britain and other allies maintained sanctions.

Trump's skepticism of NATO has also exacerbated long-standing fears about Europe's dependence on U.S. security guarantees.

Right now we are debating among ourselves how to raise $100 billion for defense and whether we really need it, another EU diplomat said, referring to the debate between the blocs on the issue of the common debt. If Trump wins, let's talk about 1 trillion and it won't be optional.

Negotiations with the EU aimed at preparing for a possible return of Trump to the White House have intensified over the past month. They follow von der Leyens' decision this year to create a small internal situation room to prepare for the outcome of the US election, mainly focused on trade and security issues.

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NATO officials are also considering how to minimize potential disruptions and protect Ukraine's support for Trump as much as possible. One option would be to give the 32-nation alliance a greater role in coordinating the supply of weapons and training to Ukrainian troops to reduce direct U.S. control over both issues.

The alliance's new secretary general, Mark Rutte, who enjoyed good relations with Trump during the former president's first term, said last week that NATO would not lose its unity over Ukraine.

But Michel said there was no guarantee Harris would maintain current U.S. policy toward Ukraine, arguing that both candidates would likely identify the U.S. economy as their top priority.

Maybe the tone will be more polite in one case, less polite in another, more brutal in one case, less brutal in another, he said. But the fact is that there is a protectionist trend in the United States.

Additional reporting by Guy Chazan in Berlin

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