Pakistan's nascent democracy is on the verge of collapse. He has two options: change course or implode | Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar

For most of its history, Pakistan was ruled by military dictators. Brief democratic intervals were only possible because the military became so unpopular that it had no choice but to temporarily cede space to democracy. The last military dictator was forced to resign in 2008, and Pakistan has since enjoyed the longest period of civilian control in its history. Instead of moving forward, it went backwards and was demoted last year from a hybrid to an authoritarian regime. Its electoral process and democracy have lost all credibility not only in the eyes of ordinary Pakistanis, but also in the eyes of the world.

We didn't get here overnight. In Ernest Hemingway's The Sun Also Rises, one character asks another How did you go bankrupt? and gets the famous answer: Two ways. Little by little, then all at once. Over the past decade, all major political parties in Pakistan have participated in the gradual decline of democracy. In their lust for power, they conspired with the military, using its influence to manipulate elections and crush political opponents. In doing so, they helped undermine the rule of law, democratic norms and the country's constitution.

The last two elections were marred by blatant irregularities. Instead of resolving political conflicts, they exacerbated them. Those detained in 2018 brought Imran Khan to power and caused huge controversy, and those detained in 2024 arbitrarily denied him power. In 2018, Khan counted the military among his allies; by 2024, he had become an enemy. Today, Khan is exactly where his adversaries were a few years ago: in prison, waiting for the tide to turn. If history is any example, the tide will surely turn at some point for both Khan and his adversaries. The larger question is why the military is allowed to choose who will rule Pakistan. For now, political leaders and parties do not seem interested in asking this question, much less resolving it. Politics has been reduced to a matter of “Pick me, love me, pick me.”

As a result, various worrying trends are surfacing in the country. The state has suppressed dissent, attempted to decimate Khan's party, and recently moved to ban the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement, a peaceful organization that has long championed the rights of the country's ethnic Pashtuns. Meanwhile, the government was slow to condemn. recent murders in police custody. Last month, two citizens were killed in custody after being accused of blasphemy. There has been no discussion of what might have triggered the killings or whether growing religious radicalization played a role.

When politics turns away from the well-being of citizens and turns into a power struggle between elites, ordinary citizens are the biggest losers. This cycle of political instability damaged Pakistan's economy, causing capital flight, while an additional 12.5 million people fell below the poverty line. The number of children out of school has increased significantly to 25.3 million, representing more than a third of children aged five to 16. Budget allocations for education and health remain woefully low.

Last month, the country entered the 25th IMF bailout program in its history. While this prevented Pakistan from defaulting on its sovereign debt, it also involved a number of reforms such as the privatization of loss-making state-owned enterprises and raising taxes so unpopular that previous governments avoided removing them out of fear of a negative reaction from public opinion. Economic stability relies on political stability, but instead of easing political tensions, the government has fueled them. Last week, he hastily passed, without any debate, a controversial amendment that will give him more control over the appointment of supreme and superior court judges. The move faced harsh criticism at home and abroad, with the International Commission of Jurists (ICJ) and the top UN human rights official calling it an attempt to undermine independence of the judicial power.

I fear that the situation on the international scene is as bleak as at home. Since the US withdrawal and the Taliban's capture of Kabul, thousands of Pakistani civilians and security force personnel have been killed in terrorist attacks orchestrated by the Taliban's radical wing, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan ( TTP). Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan are deteriorating and could collapse completely. For years, Pakistan's security apparatus ignored calls warning it against treating the Taliban as allies. The Taliban built sanctuaries in Pakistan's tribal areas, betting that they would take control of Afghanistan as soon as the United States withdrew. He radically underestimated the risks. Far from being an ally, the Taliban want to expand the Islamic emirate, and the TTP's stated goal is to overthrow Pakistan's constitution and government.

Mistakes and follies have the power to catch up with people at the worst possible time. From here, Pakistan could take two paths. The government could change course and run the country according to the wishes of the people, expressed through free and fair elections. Or it could risk crossing the invisible line between the gradual and the sudden. Its future is in balance, between democracy and implosion.

Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar is a former senator of Pakistan. From 2009 to 2013, he served as advisor to the Prime Minister of Pakistan on human rights.

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