Prabowo must improve Indonesia's defense posture

Prabowo-Gibran, whose candidacy for president and vice president sparked controversy, started work on October 20, 2024.

To protect their government, we have published a special edition of #PantauPrabowo which contains important questions resulting from our mapping with the TCID author network. This edition also evaluates Joko Widodo's 10 years of government, as well as the support given to Prabowo-Gibran in carrying out his duties.

Since October 7, 2023, tensions in the Middle East have increased following the war between the Axis of Resistance composed of The Islamic Republic of Iran, the Iraqi resistance group, the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollahagainst Israel.

Although geographically distant, Indonesia appears likely to begin paying more attention to the potential for widespread escalation of the conflict that will perhaps affect allied countries even outside the Middle East region. Building a military posture, including superiority in weapons technology, is one of the important issues that the Prabowo SubiantoGibran Rakabuming Raka regime must address.

Learning from military operations in the Middle East

There are at least two crucial things in the war currently taking place in the Middle East region that Indonesia can learn to strengthen its defense, namely regarding war technology and the intelligence function.

First of allThe Resistance Axis and Israel use the latest war technologies. On attack Operation True Promise 2 in Israel, for example, Iran claims to use hypersonic missile.

Although many parties question claims regarding hypersonic capabilities, the fact is that anti-ballistic defense systems such as the Israeli David Sling, Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems, unable to repel hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles. The Iranian side claims about 90% its missiles can hit vital targets in Israel.

Non-state groups such as the Houthis and the Islamic Resistance Group in Iraq also have the capability to launch ballistic missiles at Israel. Besides ballistic missiles, the Resistance Axis uses different types dronelike Hudhud, Samad, Mirshad and Shaheed which they used in reconnaissance and attacks against Israel.

Iran, for example, uses combination of missiles and drone in operation True Promise 1. Additionally, Hezbollah used Hudhud drones for surveillance functions in Haifaas well as drone Shaheed or Mirsad to attack military targets in Israel. Using drone Committing suicide, Hezbollah managed to target the headquarters of the Golani Brigade, killing four Israeli soldiers and injuring dozens more.

On the other hand, Israel also relies on various variants of combat aircraft. drone to launch air attacks on various regions including Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and even Yemen. Israel uses different types of bombs, including penetrating bombs bunker as GBU-31(v)3 who killed several important figures of the Resistance Axis.

In addition to its air attack capabilities, Israel is protected by a defense system Iron Dome which can repel most short-range missiles such as those launched by Hamas from Gaza and Hezbollah from Lebanon.

Secondthe intelligence function is important in war. Israel is known to have various intelligence units and is capable of combining them. human intelligence, electromagnetic intelligence and remote sensing intelligence to track and attack its targets.

For example, there are strong indications of Israeli intelligence operations against the Hezbollah group. One indication of this is Israel's success in understanding Hezbollah's strategy of changing communications tools, marketing and pagerplanted explosives by the thousands pageras well as carrying out explosions pager simultaneously targeting members of Hezbollah. Preparations for this type of operation cannot be done in a short time.

Another indication is partial fallout key figure in Hezbollah in the near future. This incident implies that Israel managed to discover the position of senior Hezbollah officials and identify their strategic bases. Israel can calculate the location of Hezbollah headquarters and determine the number and type of bombs to attack Hezbollah headquarters.

Technology: an essential factor in war

Superiority in weapons technology is one of the essential factors for developing a military posture. Warfare technologies such as ballistic missiles, combat aircraft, droneAnd integrated air and missile defense (IAMD) are among the crucial elements of contemporary warfare.

Parties that have limits on weapons technology are more vulnerable to attacks from other parties. This is the case in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, which are often targets of enemy air attacks due to limited air defense systems.

With superior air power, combat aircraft and drone Israel has repeatedly carried out attacks in these areas. On the other hand, Iran's superior ballistic missile technology has made it difficult for Israeli air defense to ward off Iran's ballistic missile attacks.

No less important is the integration of military capabilities and intelligence capabilities in warfare. Whoever successfully maximizes the combination of human intelligence, signals intelligence, and remote sensing intelligence has the opportunity to achieve combat superiority.

The need to build defense equipment

The unfolding conflict in the Middle East could be a warning for Prabowo's government to immediately update military technology according to the latest developments.

In the defense sector, for example, Indonesia already has short and medium range defense systems, such as Mistral, Starstreak and NASAMS 2. However, to anticipate contemporary military trends, it seems that Indonesia also needs to think in the future about the possibility of acquiring a ballistic missile defense system.

Apart from this, Indonesia must also learn from this war its independence in industry and military technology. For example, we can learn lessons from Iran on defense industry development. The reason is that although Iran has received various economic sanctions from the United States and its partners, Iran can create its independence in the fields of military technology and industry, especially in production. drone combat and ballistic missiles.

It is interesting to note that with this independence, Iran can create deterrent effect which is credible towards Israel, even if Israel itself is supported by the United States.

Apart from this, the various military and intelligence operations between the parties involved in the war between the Axis of Resistance and Israel should be a lesson for the Indonesian military and intelligence.

Unfortunately, in Indonesia, institutions military neither Indonesian intelligence often attracts a lot of criticism. Indeed, they often focus on internal affairs in the civilian domain that are not linked to questions related to defense, international geopolitics or strategic affairs.

This trend can be seen from phenomenon Many TNI soldiers hold civilian positions and are involved in commercial activities.

In September 2023, former President Joko Jokowi Widodo made a statement blunder that his party used the intelligence to find detailed information about political parties. Then, in October 2024, former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said intelligence should be used to spy on enemies of the state, not a political opponent.

Anticipating the potential for widespread war

The war in the Middle East, previously limited to Hamas and Israel, now involves other parties such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Iraqi Resistance group and the Islamic Republic of Iran. In fact, U.S. troops have begun moving into Mediterranean waters to help Israel preempt an Iranian attack. Without good crisis management, it is not impossible that this war will degenerate into a war on a larger scale.

The risk of escalation into a broader regional war could have serious consequences not only for regional security stability, but also lead to a broader humanitarian crisis. So far the war has caused tens of thousands of victims and waves of displacement.

It is therefore important that the Indonesian government anticipates the potential long-term impacts of this war and encourages strategic measures aimed at gradually reducing tensions.