Will the specter of war in Ukraine overshadow Xi and Putin's push for global reform? – Analysis – Eurasia Review

ByKatherine Michaelson

The 2024 BRICS summit in Russia this week provided Moscow and Beijing with a showcase of their shared anti-West sentiment and global ambitions, but analysts say the war in Ukraine could shatter the no-holds-barred relationship between the two countries .

The location of the summit was strategically important, given international efforts to isolate Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine.

For Russia, as host, the most important thing is to emphasize that it is not isolated and still has supporters on the international stage. said Shiau-shyang Liou, a research associate at the Taiwan-based National Defense and Security Research Institute.

China actually faces a predicament similar to that of US sanctions, although it has not yet reached the point of military conflict. Therefore, on these issues, they share common interests and align in their direction, Liou added.

The summit results reflect the shared ambitions of China and Russia within BRICS, a group of 10 countries that initially included Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but which now extends. New members include Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Ethiopia.

At the summit, Beijing and Moscow both articulated plans for economic systems distinct from Western-led institutions; praised the success of BRICS countries in various development initiatives; and advanced plans to lead the network of states toward a more interconnected future.

In his speech at the BRICS summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin encouraged the creation of various mechanisms that would circumvent traditional Western-led systems that make his country vulnerable to Western economic sanctions.

We believe that the launch of a special mechanism for consultations among BRICS countries on issues related to the World Trade Organization will help us define a common position on formulating a more level playing field in the global economy and overhaul of the international financial system, according to a report. transcription of his speech published by the Kremlin.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping echoed Putin's remarkssaying BRICS countries should play a leading role in reform.

We must ensure that the international financial system more effectively reflects changes in the global economic landscape, Xi said.

He also said that BRICS member countries should work together to make BRICS a main channel for strengthening solidarity and cooperation among Southern countries and a vanguard for advancing global governance reform.

The ability of China and Russia to produce meaningful results on the commitments they have made will likely face challenges, said Ali Wyne, a senior fellow at the International Crisis Group.

The BRICS group is unlikely to achieve geopolitical coherence. China's relations with India are strained, as are Iran's relations with Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Furthermore, most member countries view participation in BRICS as a way to expand their freedom of maneuver in foreign policy, not as a way to position themselves against the West, Wyne said.

Beijing and Moscow's shared ambitions could also be overshadowed by broader geopolitical priorities, the most notable being the war in Ukraine, analysts say.

At the summit, China redoubled its commitment to seeking a resolution to the war. Xi promoted the Friends for Peace initiative, a collaborative effort led by China and Brazil to achieve a negotiated end to the conflict.

U.S. and South Korean intelligence revealed the presence of around 3,000 North Korean troops training in Russia for possible deployment to Ukraine. Ukrainian military intelligence estimated on Thursday that the number of North Koreans already present in Russia was 12,000.

The Kremlin initially dismissed reports of North Korean troop deployments, but on Thursday at the BRICS summit, Putin did not deny the presence of North Korean troops in Russia. This deepening of wartime collaboration between China's two neighbors puts pressure on China and runs counter to its peacemaking ambitions.

North Korea is increasingly comfortable defying China's wishes, not only by increasing its nuclear and missile provocations in the Indo-Pacific, but also by fueling armed conflict in another theater, at a time when Beijing is seeking to present itself as a potential peacemaker, Wyne said.

In June, Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a mutual defense treaty aimed at strengthening military ties. North Korea also shares a similar treaty with China and is the only country to have such a formal agreement with Beijing.

China's challenge would be whether it would honor its commitment to protect North Korea and possibly engage in conflict with Ukraine. If North Korea were to go to war, it would cause considerable uncertainty in relations between China and North Korea, said Dingli Shen, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar.

China's position on the Ukraine crisis is consistent and clear. We hope all parties will work toward de-escalation and commit to a political settlement, Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said in a statement to VOA.

• Chuang Chih-wei of VOA's Mandarin Service contributed to this report.