Kamala Harris will achieve a 'comfortable' victory, conservative expert predicts

A British conservative pundit and political pundit has cast doubt on former President Donald Trump's chances of victory, saying this week that he sees Vice President Kamala Harris winning the 2024 election.

“I remain confident that Kamala Harris is going to win and win by a comfortable margin,” Rory Stewart, a former Conservative MP and British minister, said in an episode of his podcast “The Rest is Politics.”

“And as I think I told you before, I believe that because I think what's happened is the polling companies are panicked, and it's no surprise that they're all turning around 50-50,” Stewart added.

“They hover around 50-50 because they like to be in a pack and 50-50 is a pretty safe place,” Stewart continued. “I think the turnout assumptions about Trump don't make sense. I don't necessarily see young African-American voters who say they support Trump going to the polls.”

Stewart has enjoyed a varied and eventful political career, serving as a diplomat in the Middle East before winning a seat in David Cameron's government in 2010 and eventually holding several ministerial posts before leaving Boris Johnson's government in 2019.

Since leaving government, Stewart has teamed up with Labor political strategist Alastair Campbell for the podcast 'The Rest is Politics', in which formerly rival politicians analyze current news and trends.

In a recent episode, Stewart broke from the narrative that Trump appeared to be soaring in the polls and that Republicans can expect strong turnout in November, instead arguing that all signs point, in his mind, to a victory Democrats.

Stewart pointed to an extensive on-the-ground campaign aimed at “getting out the vote” and igniting voter enthusiasm in recent weeks, arguing that Trump instead seems “very dependent on his social media status.”

“Republicans have no influence on the ground in the African-American communities of mid-Michigan, because those have traditionally been Democratic voters, so they just don't have the infrastructure there,” he said. Stewart said.

The Republican National Committee (RNC) pushed back against criticism of its ground game efforts, saying News week that the party is seeing major results from its strategy to boost voter participation and enthusiasm.

“The Harris campaign is really going sour,” said RNC spokeswoman Anna Kelly. News week. “We've been smoking them on voter registration. We're increasing early voting and they're underperforming. More of our low-leaning and new voters are turning out to vote than theirs. “

“President Trump is leading the polls in every battleground state. No one has cared about what the British think about our strategy since 1776,” Kelly added.

Stewart acknowledged that his view no longer fits the mainstream reading of the tea leaves, especially as reports over the past week have increasingly determined that Trump has a good chance of winning key states and win the electoral college.

The election website FiveThirtyEight reported that although Harris holds a lead of about 1.7 points over Trump nationally, Trump remains the favorite to win the electoral college with a slim margin of 51% chance of victory.

In all major contests, the poll results remain too close for anyone to proclaim a clear picture of victory, because all numbers fall within the margin of error.

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