Here's Who's Winning in the Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls

Top line

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a dead-end race for the White House, according to the latest poll, the third consecutive major national poll that found the two tied, keeping the race wildly unpredictable less than two weeks before election day.

Former President Donald Trump dances on stage after speaking at a campaign rally in Greensboro… [+] Coliseum on October 22, 2024 in Greensboro, North Carolina. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Getty Images Key Facts

The Emerson College Polling survey (Oct. 23-24) released Saturday places the two candidates tied at 49%, after finding Harris leading 49% to 48% a week earlier (the poll has a margin of error of 3), and this is the first time. In Emerson's weekly poll, Harris has not enjoyed a lead since August.

Trump and Harris are deadlocked at 48% among likely voters in the Times/Siena poll released Friday (margin of error 2.2), results that are not encouraging for Harris as Democrats won the popular vote in the last election even though they lost the White House. , notes the Times.

The poll represents a decline in support for Harris since the previous Times poll in early October that showed her with a 49 to 46 percent lead over Trump, while at least three polls over the past week show Trump with a slight advantage and six others found. Harris in the lead.

The candidates were also dead at 47%, in a CNN/SSRS poll released Friday (margin of error 3.1), which also represents a downward trend for Harris, who was ahead of Trump 48% to 47% in the group's survey in September, while their poll just after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race found Trump with 49% and Harris with 46%.

Trump leads 48% to 46% in a CNBC poll of registered voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters published Wednesday (margin of error 2.5), a change. in favor of Trump since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal survey.

Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, nationally among likely voters, including those leaning toward a single candidate, according to a HarrisX/Forbes poll released Wednesday (margin of error 2. 5), and it's up one point, 49% to 48%, excluding the so-called lean.

Several other recent polls give Harris a head start: In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters conducted Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47-44 percent advantage over Trump among respondents who said they definitely or probably planned to vote. for one of the candidates, while 4% chose another and 5% did not choose any candidate.

Harris is up three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) when third-party candidates are on the ballot and respondents have the possibility of choosing others, I'm not sure or I wouldn't vote, a drop of one point in its lead compared to the group's previous poll carried out from October 12 to 15.

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in the weekly Morning Consults poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week's results but down from her 51% to 45% lead in both polls from before last week.

Harris has erased Trump's lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her advantage has narrowed slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to the average weighted by FiveThirtyEights surveys.

Important Reminder: Presidential Polls Have Often Been Wrong

And there's a lot of speculation about how they got it wrong this year and who it might benefit. Read all about it in this story.

According to the polls, who will win the election, Harris or Trump?

Trump is favored 53 times out of 100, compared to 47 for Harris, according to election forecasts from FiveThirtyEights.

Large number

1.4. That's the number of points by which Harris leads Trump in the FiveThirtyEights polling average. Meanwhile, the Real Clear Politics polling average shows Trump up 0.1, and Nate Silver gives Harris a 1.3 point rise in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How Does Harris Fare Against Trump in Swing States?

Harris leads in Michigan and Nevada, while Trump leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, although all are within the margin of error, while Georgia and Arizona are within equality.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released September 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, her lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, showed 54% supported Harris, compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they didn't know who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but it remains significantly lower than previous leads by Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and by 50 points in the 2016 poll. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

What is the impact of the debate on the polls?

Pre-debate surveys found Harris' rising poll numbers appeared to be stabilizing, including an NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters conducted September 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, in down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate surveys show that the majority of respondents think Harris won the debate, but not enough to have a significant impact on the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released September 19 found that the majority of voters in every demographic group gave positive reviews of Harris' September 10 debate performance, with 67 percent saying that she had done well, compared to 40% who said the same thing. about Trump. Harris was up 52 to 46 percent among likely voters and 51 to 47 percent among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, essentially unchanged from her lead of six points among likely voters. in late August and early August, according to ABC/Ipsos surveys, even though 63 percent of Americans said Harris won the debate.

Key context

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from his own party for weeks to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris, and she announced her intention to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting for her official nomination in a virtual call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his choice for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Harris' rise in the polls comes with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% today. today, while Republican enthusiasm remained stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released August 14.

Further reading

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Trump leads Harris by 2 points, but 12% are still deciding (Forbes)

Swing State Polls for 2024 Elections: Latest Surveys Show Trump in Nevada, Georgia (Updated) (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 Nevada Polls: Trump up 1 point in latest survey as Harris battles with Latinos (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 Georgia polls: Trump leads latest poll, but undecided voters could tip the scales (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 polls in Arizona: Trump up 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Michigan Polls 2024: Harris Narrowly Leads in Latest Survey (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 Pennsylvania Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State in Latest Survey (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 polls in Wisconsin: Harris leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 polls in North Carolina: Trump leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

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