Donald Trump 'could make history' and break 20-year recordElection analyst

Former President Donald Trump, the Republican Party nominee, “could make history” and break a 20-year record by winning the popular vote in next month's election, election analyst Harry Enten said Friday.

Enten, a CNN political reporter, showed some recent polls on CNN News Central on Friday that found Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, essentially tied for the popular vote.

The popular vote does not decide the election due to the country's electoral college system, which counts the number of electoral votes given to each state until a candidate reaches the threshold of 270 required to win the White House . Still, the popular vote can determine how many Americans supported each candidate overall, and winning it remains an accomplishment.

For Trump, if he wins the popular vote, it would not only be an achievement but a historic event for himself since he lost the popular vote twice in 2016 and 2020.

In his first Oval Office campaign, Trump lost the popular vote to his Democratic opponent, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, by approximately 3 million votes (65,853,514 to 62,984,828). But he won the electoral vote by 304 to 227, giving him the presidency.

In 2020, Trump lost the popular vote and the Electoral College to his Democratic opponent, now-President Joe Biden. Biden received about 7 million more votes than Trump in total (81,268,867 to 74,216,747) and received 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232.

“He could make history, not only for Donald Trump but for a Republican candidate,” Enten said after explaining that no Republican presidential candidate had won the popular vote since George W. Bush in his successful re-election campaign in 2004 against his Democratic opponent. John Kerry, then senator from Massachusetts.

Bush, like Trump in 2016, won the electoral college but lost the popular vote in a very close race against his Democratic opponent, then-Vice President Al Gore, in 2000.

Enten also mentioned that the last time the Republican Party won the popular vote since Bush versus Kerry was in 1988, when Bush's father, George HW Bush, received more electoral votes and overall votes than his Democratic opponent, then-Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis.

The election analyst gave a “potentially good sign for Democrats” in the event Harris wins the Electoral College.

“You can look at the state-level polls and see that Donald Trump is doing particularly well in California, Florida, New York and Texas,” Enten said.

He continued: “Of course, none of these states are really on the board at this point, so Donald Trump might end up winning in the national polls, but in reality he's wasting votes, which might, in fact, lead to a trial where Kamala Harris could sneak into the electoral college by sweeping the Great Lakes battleground states, which at this point are far too close to call.”

California and New York are safe blue states, while Florida and Texas are expected to remain red, but states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are toss-up.

Newsweek contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment Saturday morning.

Former President Donald Trump is seen October 23 in Zebulon, Georgia. Republican Party nominee Trump “could make history” and break a 20-year record by winning the popular vote in next month's election, according to an election analyst… Former President Donald Trump is seen on October 23 in Zebulon, Georgia. Trump, the Republican nominee, “could make history” and break a 20-year record by winning the popular vote in next month's election, election analyst Harry Enten said Friday. More from Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images What do the polls show?

A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted Oct. 20-23 found Harris and Trump tied with 48 percent each of voters. The poll surveyed 2,516 likely voters nationwide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

According to a Wall Street Journal poll conducted between October 19 and 22, Trump leads Harris 47 to 45 percent. The poll covered 1,500 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

A YouGov poll conducted for the Times and SAY24 — a joint project of Stanford, Arizona State and Yale universities — found Harris leading Trump 47 to 45 percent. The poll surveyed 1,266 registered voters Oct. 18-21 and has a margin of error of about 3 percent.

According to a CNBC poll conducted between October 15 and 19, Trump leads Harris 48 to 46 percent. The poll surveyed 1,000 voters across the country and has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted October 4-8 found Harris with 51 percent voter support, compared to 48 percent for Trump. The poll surveyed 2,631 American adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

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