Politics
SMRC survey shows satisfaction with Jokowi plays role in Prabowo-Gibran victory
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – The founder of Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), Saiful Mujani, mentioned that the approval rate towards Joko Widodo (Jokowi) influenced Prabowo Subianto's victory in the 2024 presidential election. Prabowo was paired with Jokowi's eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka against the Anies-Muhaimin and Ganjar-Mahfud pairs.
“If the incumbent supports one of the candidates, then his approval rating will strengthen the supported candidate,” he said in a discussion via SMRC TV YouTube channel on Saturday, October 26, 2024.
Previously, the SMRC found that Jokowi's approval rating reached 79 percent. “The benefits of the approval rating are clear, in predicting and understanding who will win in the presidential election. It's the approval rating,” he said.
According to him, in measuring the approval rate, there are rational aspects and psychological aspects. The rational aspect focuses on achievements and performance, such as economic conditions, infrastructure development, law enforcement, and anti-corruption performance.
Meanwhile, psychological aspects include liking or disliking Jokowi's behavior. Then, his way of speaking, greeting, giving speeches and even his habits of distributing rice, t-shirts or money.
As soon as Jokowi supported Prabowo-Gibran in the 2024 presidential election, his popularity rating also contributed to the victory of the number two duo. “He (Jokowi) was re-elected in 2019, and when he supported Prabowo, Prabowo won because his (Jokowi) popularity rating was high,” Saiful said.
He went on to say that the approval rating is a way to simplify a very complicated assessment. According to him, the less educated general public cannot calculate all aspects of the assessment in detail. Yet even those who absolutely do not understand still have the right to vote.
This complexity ultimately influenced the eligibility of Prabowo-Gibrancandidates supported by Jokowi. If Jokowi's popularity rating is low, Saiful said, Prabowo's chances of winning will be difficult.
“That's right, how Jokowi's 79 percent approval rating can help Prabowo win. If Jokowi's approval rating is only 50 percent, it will be difficult for Prabowo to win, relying on Jokowi's support,” he said.
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