Between Trump and Harris, who does China prefer? DW 10/27/2024

One of the few issues on which Democrats and Republicans largely agree is maintaining economic and strategic pressure on China.

During his presidency, Republican candidate Donald Trump started a trade war with China. Democratic President Joe Biden's administration has largely maintained a tough stance on Beijing, with policies focused on Chinese exports and access to critical technologies.

It's unclear what path Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris would take on China if she wins on November 5. However, it should be consistent with its predecessor, albeit with subtle differences.

Faced with this situation, some experts say that China has no favoritism in who will occupy the White House from January 2025.

Expert Diao Daming, deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Renmin University of China in Beijing, believes that the current trend of strategic competition between the United States and China will likely continue after the election.

He added that while there is no fundamental change in the rivalry between the two countries, the victory of neither candidate “will bring significant benefits to China.”

Curbing China's intentions

On the campaign trail, both Trump and Harris focused on stopping China's strategic ambitions in Asia and responding to continued aggression against Taiwan, which the Chinese regime considers a rebel province.

In a recent interview with the newspaper The Wall Street JournalTrump said he would impose 200% tariffs on Chinese goods if China “enters Taiwan.”

He added that if he were president again, China would think twice before blocking Taiwan because President Xi Jinping “respects me and knows I'm… crazy.”

On the economic front, Trump has proposed across-the-board tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on virtually all imports, as well as tariffs of 60 percent or more on goods from China. He says these measures would boost U.S. domestic production.

“If it actually imposes these tariffs, China will react in the same way, that's for sure,” notes Diao. During Trump's previous presidency, from 2017 to 2021, he introduced a series of tariffs on Chinese products. China responded by imposing its own tariffs, primarily targeting U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans.

“Trump initiated strategic competition with China, while Biden put it into practice over the past four years,” Diao says. “If Trump returns to power, it would mean the continuation of Biden's agenda with Trump's preferences and pace. It would be a very complicated situation,” he adds.

An Incgnita Harris

Since Harris began her presidential campaign in July, after Biden dropped out of the race, her few statements on China have included a promise to ensure that “the United States, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century.” “.

Diao says it's harder to predict Harris' actions toward China as president. “No one is clear what external relations with her will be like.”

However, it is expected to maintain policies imposed by the Biden administration, including tariffs on Chinese imports and blocking China's access to critical semiconductor technology.

In September, Biden finalized tariff increases on some products made in China, with the rate reaching 100% on electric vehicles. The European Union has also applied similar tariffs, angering Beijing.

At the same time, Biden sought to communicate more openly with China. He hosted President Xi in California for a bilateral summit in 2023.

In September, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Security Summit in Singapore, the United States and China held military-to-military talks at “commander level” to “maintain open lines of communication and manage competition responsibly.” .

The Biden administration has also strengthened its regional alliances with the Philippines, Japan, Australia and India.

Beijing may prefer Trump's isolationism

Chinese political analyst Wu Qiang, a former professor at Beijing's Tsinghua University, believes China may prefer Trump over Harris. “The return of Trump to the White House would be a great advantage for China, because it would lead to deeper divisions in American democracy,” he analyzes.

“Amid division with Europe and its global allies, the United States will turn to a new form of isolationism, which was already evident during Trump's previous term,” he predicts.

Trump became known for his isolationism in foreign policy, adopting an “America First” policy and withdrawing the United States from several international agreements.

Trump also takes a transactional view of strategic alliances, threatening to reduce support for NATO in Europe and its allies in Asia, such as South Korea and Japan, if the partners do not contribute more to their own defense.

However, expert Elizabeth Freund Larus of the Atlantic Council think tank believes that the geopolitical landscape has deteriorated significantly since Trump's first presidency and that US foreign policy makers will therefore put pressure on him to engage with allies of the United States. “I don't think Trump is going to go back in time and stop working with these alliances, which are taking a stronger shape,” he says.

Or what about Harris' focus on internal affairs?

In this case, Chinese leaders might prefer a Harris victory from a foreign and defense policy perspective, Larus says, because the current vice president is more likely to “cooperate with China in the same way that l 'did his predecessors apart from Trump'.

“Biden, when he was still the Democratic Party's pick, was tougher on China. It even seemed like Trump and Biden were trying to show who was tougher. Harris doesn't give that impression. His political agenda is much more focused on domestic issues,” assesses Larus.

On the issue of Taiwan, the vice president is also seen as more reserved in his explicit military support for the island than Biden, who has repeatedly indicated that U.S. military forces would defend Taiwan in the event of an “unprecedented attack.”

Compared to Trump, Larus said, Harris would be “more likely to be engaged and willing to put the U.S.-China relationship back on some sort of path.”

“If I were the Chinese Communist Party, I would prefer the one that is willing to talk. I could come and say 'we are going to implement market reforms and we want a peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue,'” Larus says .