Donald Trump: Europe will pay a “high price” on trade and customs duties

The prospect of a Donald Trump presidency could be closer to reality. For Europe, this means preparing for a future of more costly trade while maintaining close relations with the United States.

Trump has proclaimed his intention to impose tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on imports across the board if elected to office, prioritizing U.S.-made goods over international goods. This has alarmed some industries over others, such as German automakers, who risk paying high tariffs.

At a rally in Pennsylvania this week, Trump made clear he would not make an exception for Europe on trade.

I'll tell you, the European Union seems so nice, so charming, doesn't it? All the nice little European countries coming together, Trump said, Reuters reported.

They don't take our cars. They don't take our agricultural products. They sell millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no, they will have to pay a heavy price.

The United States is Europe's largest trading partner, with transatlantic trade accounting for nearly 20% of all exports.

Trump's manifesto proposes a tough Reciprocal Trade Act that would impose punitive tariffs on countries with similar levies, making the United States a fortune. He added that the EU's average tariffs are 50% higher than those of the United States.

That's not all: the former president predicts large-scale carnage that could affect the European regulatory and manufacturing environment. For example, Trump also complains about the EU imposing multibillion-dollar fines on tech companies, promising to take action if he takes office.

The knock-on effect of tariffs could be serious for the auto industry by potentially reducing German GDP by 0.23%, according to a report from the London School of Economics released on Wednesday. The UK economy could also be hit if the Trump taxes take effect.

Given that Germany, Europe's largest economy, is grappling with its own challenges stemming from years of underinvestment and economic decline, a Trump presidency could exacerbate its woes.

Vice President Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has not proposed tariffs and has criticized Trump's policies on the matter.

US tariffs would force Europeans to impose their own tariffs, fearing a diversion of Chinese exports to European markets, while subsidies would threaten to attract investment into the US and out of Europe, wrote the Center for European Reform in a September report.

Senior officials have not ruled out a possible trade war if Trump takes office, with one European diplomat telling Politico that the EU would hit back quickly and we would hit back hard.

After all, Trump had already done it during his first term. As part of his protectionist policies, he imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from the EU, which President Joe Biden ultimately suspended upon his election (although they did not not been completely removed).

It remains unclear how helpful these tariffs are to U.S. citizens. Studies show a negative impact on their real income and, to a lesser extent, on real American GDP.

Regardless, Europe is anxiously watching the outcome of the US elections, as the two candidates deliver different results in terms of trade relations, geopolitics and much more.

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