Indonesia's new president likely to be more active on foreign policy

Takeaways

On October 20, Prabowo Subianto was named Indonesia's eighth president, succeeding Joko Widodo (Jokowi). Prabowo, former Minister of Defense (201924), said he was committed to Indonesia's free and active foreign policy, emphasizing non-alignment and strategic autonomy. There are also signs that Prabowo will take a more hands-on approach to foreign policy, contrasting with Jokowi's more domestically focused agenda.

Although Prabowo is expected to strengthen unity within ASEAN, he will nevertheless reiterate the bloc's non-interference stance in the face of regional challenges, such as the South China Sea disputes and the civil war in Myanmar.

His administration will also likely try to balance its relations with major powers such as China, Russia and the United States.

Brief

• Prabowo named his close confidant Sugiono, a former first lieutenant in the Indonesian army, as foreign minister. Although Sugiono has a background in legislation, his lack of formal diplomatic experience has led to criticism that he is simply a rubber-stamp official, allowing Prabowo himself to dominate foreign affairs.
• Unlike his predecessor, Prabowo is expected to take a proactive approach to international affairs, continue The “free and active” foreign policy that characterizes Indonesia. This approach, as evidenced by the country's close ties with the United States and China, emphasizes non-alignment with major powers and prioritizes national interests. It guarantees strategic autonomy and promotes active participation in global diplomacy.
• In September 2024, Prabowo, as Minister of Defense, embarked on a tour through Southeast Asiavisiting key partners including the Philippines, Thailand and 2025 ASEAN Chairmanship Malaysia to affirm Indonesia's solidarity and togetherness. position the nation as a regional leader within ASEAN.

Consequences

Indonesia, under Prabowo, is likely to support ASEAN's non-interventionist approach towards Myanmar. Prabowo always underlines the principle of non-intervention, asserting that the organization can only help Myanmar develop its own resolutions for peace. He also urged the country's military junta to implement the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus (5CP), which calls for an immediate cessation of violence and inclusive peace talks between the military, the government in exile and civil society groups. Although progress on the 5 PCs has been glacial at best, the ASEAN bloc has recently reaffirmed his commitment to the plan.

Prabowo is expected to maintain a passive approach towards Chinese activities in Indonesian maritime areas. Although Indonesia is not a claimant state in the ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea, Chinese vessels are increasingly in demand. spotted in Indonesia's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the North Natuna Sea, an area claimed by Beijing. On October 24, 2024, the Indonesian coast guard forced a Chinese patrol boat to withdraw from its maritime zones, the second such event in a week. Traditionally, Indonesia has maintained a non-confrontational position towards China's current claims in the North Natuna Sea, for fear of antagonizing Beijing, its largest trading partner. Even if Prabowo is determined to maintain this approach of minimizing maritime disputes, he will continue to strengthen Indonesia's position. military and maritime capabilities through Minimum essential strength (MEF), focused on modernizing its ships.

Security ties with the United States are expected to remain important, but will need to be balanced with expanding economic ties with China. As defense minister, Prabowo strengthened military cooperation and maritime security between the United States and Indonesia. Indonesia has used its close security ties with the United States as a counterweight to check China's growing influence in the region. In August 2024, Indonesia and the United States conducted their annual joint military exercise, Super Garuda Shieldwith participation of several Western powers, including Canada. In May 2024, Washington and Jakarta detained the 30th Cooperation afloat, preparation and training, strengthen Indonesia’s maritime response capabilities to ongoing Chinese territorial claims.

At the same time, China is Indonesia's largest economic partner and investor, with bilateral trade reaching 176.1 billion Canadian dollars in 2023 and Chinese foreign direct investments totaling 10.3 billion Canadian dollars. As Prabowo targets an annual growth rate of 8% in his first three years, economic relations with China are expected to grow. fortified. Prabowo is committed to expansion on his predecessor's initiatives regarding critical minerals, promoting a domestic supply chain for electric vehicles and mandating local processing of key minerals to attract more Chinese investment. These efforts are expected to boost Chinese investment in Indonesia, which currently stands at 41.6 billion Canadian dollars. Between 2003 and 2019, Canadian companies invested more than 900 million Canadian dollars in the country's mining sector.

What's next

Opportunities for closer trade and diplomatic relations between Canada and Indonesia

As part of Canada's Indo-Pacific strategy, Ottawa appointed Paul Thoppil, former assistant deputy minister at Global Affairs Canada, as the first trade representative for the Indo-Pacific, stationed in Jakarta, to strengthen trade and investment ties between Canada and Indonesia. A Canadian trade mission to Indonesia is scheduled for December 2024 to further expand access to the regional market.

Bilateral merchandise trade between Canada and Indonesia reached C$6.24 billion in 2022. The Canada-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is expected to be signed. finalized by the end of 2024, while the Canada-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement is expected conclude by 2025.

In September 2024, Indonesia requested join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Canada will chair the CPTPP Commission in 2024. Although Prabowo has not yet officially approved the move, the agreement align with its economic objectives by boosting Indonesian exports, attracting foreign investment and expanding market access.

As Prabowo strengthens Indonesia's role within ASEAN, he could advocate for greater inclusion of countries like Canada in ASEAN's multilateral forums. He had previously suggested expansion joining the ASEAN Plus Defense Ministers Meeting, an initiative in which Canada has expressed interest.

Edited by Erin Williams, Senior Program Manager, Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research and Strategy, and Ted Fraser, Senior Editor, APF Canada