What could the Trump presidency mean for Pakistan?

As the specter of a Donald Trump presidency looms once again, some in Pakistan are clinging to the idea that a Trump victory on November 5 would somehow revive US-Pakistan relations or , better still, would guarantee a favorable outcome for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) founder Imran Khan. Such ideas are simply fantasy. The reality is that American foreign policy operates according to cold logic – dictated by American interests, not the whims of a populist leader or the hopes of a diaspora.

Although members of Congress may sometimes express concerns about Imran Khan's imprisonment, it is more of a wink to their constituents than a harbinger of policy change. For many Pakistani Americans, particularly those connected to the influential Association of Pakistani Physicians of North America (AAPNA), these statements offer a glimmer of hope. Founded in the early 2000s, AAPNA is today a powerful lobbying entity representing more than 18,000 Pakistani-American physicians. With the arrest of Imran Khan, AAPNA has mobilized, urging U.S. lawmakers to pay attention to what they see as Pakistan's deviation from democratic norms. But even with its reach, AAPNA's influence on foreign policy is likely limited; America's strategic interests simply will not be dictated by a diaspora organization.

If Trump returns to the presidency, we can expect a return to his signature doctrine of “America First,” a doctrine that views foreign aid with disdain and measures alliances in purely transactional terms. In this scenario, Pakistan could prepare for reduced U.S. aid, with aid likely conditioned on immediate U.S. security objectives.

Trump's 'America First' Goal: No Free Passes, No Free Aid

Trump has always been unapologetic about his “America First” priorities, with foreign aid viewed as a wasteful resource and international partnerships only worth maintaining if they bring rapid returns to the UNITED STATES. Unlike the Biden administration, which invested in civilian support and democratic structures abroad, Trump is more likely to cut aid and focus exclusively on what serves immediate U.S. interests.

Trump may well use American aid and trade as a bargaining chip, urging Pakistan to reduce its economic and technological cooperation with China. For Islamabad, walking the tightrope between Washington and Beijing would be a dangerous act

Pakistan, a longtime recipient of U.S. aid, could find itself on the wrong side of these budget cuts as the United States increasingly channels its resources toward direct security and counterterrorism efforts, leaving thus economic and democratic development on the chopping block.

Squeezing Pakistan as US-China tensions escalate

The previous Trump administration escalated tensions with China, launching a tariff-fueled trade war that pushed U.S.-China relations to new extremes. If he returns to power, we can expect this rivalry to intensify further and Pakistan to feel the pressure.

With China as Pakistan's closest ally, including through joint initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a Trump administration would examine Pakistan's loyalties with renewed vigor. Trump may well use American aid and trade as a bargaining chip, urging Pakistan to reduce its economic and technological cooperation with China. For Islamabad, walking the tightrope between Washington and Beijing would be a dangerous act, with the very real risk of diplomatic fallout on both sides.

Favoring India: Pakistan as collateral damage in the Indo-Pacific strategy

Pakistan could also face an amplified tilt toward India under Trump, whose administration has always viewed India as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific region.

Trump's affinity for India could deepen, particularly if he views India's growing influence as a strategic bulwark against Beijing. Pakistan, on the other hand, could see its concerns downplayed or ignored altogether, particularly on the volatile issue of Kashmir.

With Trump's preference for clear alliances, any perception of Pakistan's allegiance to China could translate into a cooling in US-Pakistan relations – a dynamic that could put Islamabad on the defensive in the face of regional security challenges.

Intensified review of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal

Trump has expressed concerns about nuclear security in South Asia, often viewing Pakistan's nuclear stockpile with skepticism. His administration would likely impose stricter conditions on aid and support, accompanied by new requirements for transparency and oversight. Trump's unpredictability could also increase demands on Pakistan to crack down on extremist groups, as he prioritizes actions that would bring immediate security gains to the United States.

Pakistan's strategic calculus would likely be tested, forced to conform to an increasingly transactional relationship or risk losing Washington's limited support altogether.

The way forward for Pakistan: preparing for a transactional future

A Trump presidency would force Pakistan into a difficult balancing act. With an “America First” administration that would be quick to cut aid and cool toward diplomatic engagement, Pakistan may look more to China for economic stability. The challenge would be to navigate between US security demands and Pakistan's regional interests, without compromising either.

For Islamabad, the stakes under a second Trump administration would be higher than ever. Trump's potential return signals a recalibration of U.S.-Pakistan relations toward selective engagement — engagement that prioritizes U.S. security and leaves Pakistan facing difficult choices.

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