University of Akron poll shows comfortable lead for Trump in Ohio and tied U.S. Senate race • Ohio Capital Journal

A poll from the University of Akron's Bliss Institute released Thursday finds that Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by seven points in Ohio, and that U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown holds a slight advantage over his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.

The results are part of the Buckeye 2024 Poll of Schools conducted September 12-October 24. The survey included 1,241 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Digging into the details, pollsters noted that the wide gender gap many expect to see in the presidential race nationally hasn't really manifested itself at the state level. They even note that Trump holds a nominal one-point lead among women, although that's well within the margin of error and 3 percent remain undecided.

The poll finds that Ohio independents are leaning toward Trump in the presidential race, but nearly a quarter of that group is still undecided. In the Senate race, a third of independents still had not made up their minds.

The survey also highlights deep divisions in voters' views of the country. Partisans on both sides are sharply divergent on issues such as economic policy, immigration, abortion and trans rights.

U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown speaks to a supporter during a Democratic Party campaign event for Franklin County voters. (Photo by Graham Stokes for the Ohio Capital Journal. Republish photo only with original article.) Presidential race

The Buckeye poll found that 51% of respondents support Donald Trump, compared to 44% for Kamala Harris. These results include 4% of respondents favoring a particular candidate in the case of Trump and 6% for Harris, while 5% of voters supported a third party or remained undecided. Trump's seven-point advantage exceeds the polls' margin of error and roughly matches his actual performance in Ohio in 2016 and 2020, which he won by eight points each time.

We're not at all surprised by the numbers from the presidential race showing that Donald Trump has a healthy seven-point lead over Harris, said Cherie Stachan, director of the Bliss Institute and a political scientist.

The poll also spread respondents' partisanship across a spectrum from strong to leaning toward both parties, with independents in the middle. Among voters who identified as independent, 39% support Trump, compared to 24% supporting Harris. Another 23% said they supported neither.

VANDALIA, OHIO – MARCH 16: Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno greets former President Donald Trump in Vandalia earlier this year. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images) U.S. Senate Race

Strachan described the contest between Brown and Moreno as a race for the margin of error. The first Buckeye poll result had Brown leading Moreno neck and neck 46% to 44%, given the poll's margin of error.

The only interesting thing about the Senate race, she said, is that there are still, at least in this poll, enough people willing to split their ticket and support the incumbent senator for any reason to make it a margin of error. race.

Based on the overlap found in the poll, Brown scored about three points from respondents who support Trump but are nonetheless considering voting for the Democratic senator.

It's remarkable, Strachan said, that Trump's support hasn't pushed this challenger over the edge. Moreno did not solidify all Republicans despite Trump's support.

This can be seen somewhat in the quality of their responses during the Senate race. Voter preferences were a bit shakier, with significantly more lean voters than in the presidential race. Brown received strong support from 37% of those surveyed, with an additional 9% speaking in his favor. But for Moreno, 30% of those surveyed said they were strong supporters, and 14% said they were only leaning in his favor.

I think it's just another sign that maybe he's done some things that maybe haven't been successful in persuading people that he's a good candidate, Strachan said, or that he's a candidate that people feel comfortable supporting.

As an anecdotal example, she cited television commercials. Although Moreno and the outside groups supporting him have spent a lot of money attacking Brown, they have spent much less promoting Moreno as a political newcomer. According to FEC data, independent groups have invested more than $114 million to attack Brown, but less than $66 million to support Moreno.

Polarization

The Buckeye poll found that Republicans and Democrats were sharply divided on several major policy issues. When it comes to abortion, immigration, and trans rights, the parties mirror each other in terms of support or opposition.

Strachan noted that these divides have become so pronounced and widespread in recent years that political scientists describe the phenomenon as negative partisanship: I don't like the other side more than maybe my own, Strachan described. Animosity toward the other side causes us to stay in our partisan silos rather than loving our own.

That's part of what makes Brown's continued appeal across partisan lines, even if that appeal put him in a statistical tie.

In American politics at large, it's becoming increasingly difficult to achieve what Brown is doing and get these voters to split their ticket.

Follow OCJ reporter Nick Evans on Twitter.

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