IP24099 | A pragmatic path: Indonesia's engagement with AUKUS

SYNOPSIS

In May 2023, then-President Joko Widodo said Indonesia should consider AUKUS as a partner, marking a departure from the country's initially cautious approach. In this article, Mohammed Haripine And Adhi Priamarizki explore potential explanations for this shift in perspective and examine the likely implications of President Prabowo Subianto's ascension for Indonesia's relationship with AUKUS.

COMMENT

The Indonesian government's initial approach to the creation of AUKUS, a US-led security arrangement with the United Kingdom and Australia, was cautious due to the partnership's potential negative impacts on regional stability. Indonesian Ministries of Foreign Affairs five point statement on Australia's nuclear-powered submarine program under AUKUS reflected this cautious position. However, Indonesia has since recognized that the best response to AUKUS was to avoid a confrontational approach. Further hesitation or opposition could undermine Indonesia's chances of gaining economic benefits and playing an active broker role amid great power rivalry in the region.

Thus, a more conciliatory approach was evident in then-President Joko Widodo's (Jokowi) statement in May 2023, which outlined AUKUS, as well as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) involving the United States , Australia, Japan and India: as partners rather than competitors. Intensified communication launched by AUKUS membersnotably Australia and the United Kingdom, has been seen as one of the factors contributing to Indonesia's improved perception of the group, although domestic considerations appear to have been a major factor in softening the country's initial response to AUKUS. Since then, Prabowo Subianto has been officially named President of Indonesia. The new president will likely place the pursuit of national interests at the heart of all his policies and could potentially reset Indonesia's foreign policy. Prabowos' diplomatic activities between his election as president in February 2024 and his inauguration last month highlighted such tendency.

Indonesia's engagement with AUKUS members under Jokowi

Indonesia maintains defense and economic cooperation with AUKUS members, including Australia and the United States. Indonesia is an avid user of US and Western military platforms. Indonesia's close relations with AUKUS members in the defense sector extend beyond weapons acquisition and include military education and training exercises. The extension of the Garuda Shield military exercises between the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) and the US military to the Super Garuda Shield in 2022 is one of them. example. Earlier this year, Indonesia and Australia signed a defense cooperation agreement aimed at strengthening their relationship. Indonesia is currently working with the United Kingdom on the Red White Frigate (Red and white frigate) joint construction project, a partnership between the British defense company Babcock and the Indonesian state-owned shipbuilding company, PT PAL. Additionally, in November 2023, the relationship between the United States and Indonesia was upgraded from a strategic partnership to a strategic partnership. Global strategic partnership. However, some analysts have criticized this upgrade because it just a symbolic gesture.

In the economic sector, the green energy transition is emerging as a major subject of economic cooperation. Driven by his ambition for economic development, Jokowi took a transactional approach in the conduct of external affairs; foreign policy was for him a means of producing tangible benefits for ordinary Indonesians. Under his leadership, Indonesia launched various new economic initiatives, such as the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP)launched at the G20 summit in Indonesia in November 2022. Indonesia and a group of developed countries, led by the United States and Japan, established the JETP to help Jakarta accelerate its energy transition in the electricity sector. Indonesia has also launched economic cooperation initiatives with Australia and the United Kingdom. Australia's pursuit economic collaboration with Indonesia was part of Australian Economic Strategy for Southeast Asia to 2040an initiative to strengthen Canberras economic engagement with South East Asian countries. Indonesia has also worked with the United Kingdom to improve economic relations between the two countries, including through the formation of the Indonesia-UK Agreement. Joint Economic and Commercial Committee (JETCO).

The rise of Prabowo and the Indonesian approach to AUKUS

Prabowo is known for his emphasis on good neighborly foreign policy, aiming to establish good relations with as many other countries as possible. He showed his desire to engage the global community in a personal and pragmatic way. Prabowo used the jargon of continuity as a central theme of his campaign for the 2024 presidential election, pledging to continue Jokowi's policies, such as infrastructure development and the new investment project. This commitment to continuing Jokowi's legacy could mean a radical departure from the spirit of his predecessor. pragmatic foreign policy is unlikely, as undertaking projects such as the construction of the new capital as well as Prabowos' flagship programs, including food resilience and providing free meals to students, will require significant financial support.

Prabowo's past as an ardent nationalist with a strong Indonesia-first stance should also be taken into account when trying to assess how his foreign policy is likely to pan out. This position suggests that he will prioritize national interests in his foreign policy approach. The new president is also expected to maintain Indonesia's independent and active foreign policy, focused on maintaining domestic and regional stability. Furthermore, diplomacy will likely remain the key tool in conducting Indonesia's external affairs to compensate for the country's limited defense capabilities and resources. These factors will therefore affect the Prabowo administration's approach towards AUKUS.

Indonesia and AUKUS: what’s next?

A survey of Indonesian elites conducted by the Foreign Policy Research Group of the Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) in December 2023 indicated a positive perception of AUKUS and Quad. Respondents, who included senior officials from ministries and state agencies and international relations specialists from various Indonesian universities, had generally favorable views of the Quad and AUKUS. They believed that these minilateral groups could create new opportunities for Indonesia in trade, investment, advanced technology and research and development.

The survey also found that respondents were aware of the Quad and AUKUS' intention to limit China's growing influence in Indonesia and Southeast Asia more broadly. Despite this awareness, the elites interviewed were open to the idea of ​​cooperation with minilateral groups. According to them, the rivalry between the United States and China should not be seen as a zero-sum game; instead, they believed that great power competition should be seen as an opportunity to gain benefits for Indonesia from both countries.

Such pragmatism might also be shared by the recently inaugurated Prabowo. He stressed the importance of building friendship with all countries through his policy of good neighborliness and his philosophy of a thousand friends is too few, one enemy too many. Pragmatism and the search for opportunities will greatly influence the trajectory of Prabowos' foreign policy. On the one hand, this orientation offers potential strategic advantages to Indonesia. On the other hand, this could hardly advance AUKUS' goal of containing China's rise in the Indo-Pacific region.

Mohammed Haripine is a researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Indonesia. Adhi Priamarizki is a research associate in the Indonesian Program at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).