Turkish economy sinks into recession as central bank tightening takes effect

  Turkey's economy slipped into recession over the summer, with economic activity dampened by high interest rates as the country's central bank sought to rein in inflation. 

  Gross domestic product fell 0.2% on a quarterly basis between July and September, according to data released Friday by the Turkish Statistics Agency, matching the contraction in the previous quarter, which had been revised downward. A recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in economic output. 

  Compared to the same quarter of 2023, the Turkish economy grew by 2.1%, its slowest rate since the economic shock of the Covid-19 pandemic in the second quarter of 2020, the agency said. 

  This decline is due to household consumption, which fell over the quarter, while public spending also declined. However, exports increased in the third quarter, helped by summer tourism, and imports declined. 

  The contraction comes after Turkey's central bank kept its key interest rate at 50%, the same since January this year and its highest level in more than 20 years. The bank has tried to combat extremely high inflation, which rose to 49% in October, although well below spring rates. 

  However, the bank indicated at its latest meeting that there were positive signs and that the path towards lower inflation would continue. 

  The cycle of rising interest rates began in mid-2023, when the bank reversed monetary policy promoted by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which kept rates low. 

  Economic data suggests that policymakers' efforts to weaken demand are working and that policy tightening is helping to rebalance the economy, said Nicholas Farr, emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics. 

  If the GDP figures are followed by weaker-than-expected November inflation in data due Tuesday, that could raise expectations that the central bank could cut rates as early as the next December meeting, he said. added. 

  Write to Ed Frankl at [email protected] 

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  November 29, 2024 at 3:23 a.m. ET (08:23 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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