Donald Trump's call for “energy domination” risks coming up against real limits

WASHINGTON (AP) President-elect Donald Trump is set to create a National Energy Council that he says will establish U.S. energy dominance around the world, as he seeks to boost oil and gas drilling in the states -United and moving away from President Joe Biden's focus on climate change.

The energy council will be led by North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum. Trump's choice to lead the Interior Department will be instrumental in Trump's pledge to drill, drill, drill and sell more oil and other energy sources to his allies in Europe and around the world .

The new council will be granted broad authority over federal agencies involved in energy permitting, generation, distribution, regulation and transportation, with a mandate to cut bureaucratic red tape, improve private sector investment and focus on innovation rather than completely unnecessary regulation, Trump said. said.

But the president-elect's energy wishes risk coming up against real limits. On the one hand, US oil production under Biden has already reached record levels. The federal government cannot force companies to drill for more oil, and increased production could lower prices and reduce profits.

A call for energy dominance, a term Trump also used during his first term as president, is an opportunity, not a requirement, for the oil industry to move forward with drilling projects under conditions likely to be more industry-friendly than those proposed by Biden, said energy analyst Kevin Book.

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Whether Trump achieves energy dominance, however he defines it, depends on the decisions of private companies, based on how they perceive the balance between supply and demand in the global market,” said Book, managing partner at ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington research firm. Don't expect an immediate influx of new oil rigs dotting the nation's landscape, he said.

Trump's attempt to increase oil supplies and lower prices in the United States is complicated by his threat this week to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, two of the largest sources of U.S. oil imports. The U.S. oil industry has warned that tariffs could drive up prices and even harm national security.

Canada and Mexico are our largest energy trading partners, and maintaining the free flow of energy products across our borders is essential to North America's energy security and to American consumers, said Scott Lauermann, speaking on behalf of the American Petroleum Institute, the oil industry's leading lobbying group.

American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, which represents U.S. refineries, also opposes possible tariffs, saying in a statement that U.S. refiners depend on crude oil from Canada and Mexico to produce the affordable and reliable fuels on which consumers matter every day.

Scott Segal, a former Bush administration official, said the idea of ​​centering energy decisions at the White House follows an example set by Biden, who named a trio of White House advisers to lead climate policy . Segal, a partner at the law and policy firm Bracewell, called Burgum a steady hand on the helm with experience in fossil fuels and renewable energy.

And unlike Biden's climate advisers, Gina McCarthy, John Podesta and Ali Zaidi Burgum will likely take his White House post as a Senate-confirmed Cabinet member, Segal said.

Dustin Meyer, senior vice president for policy, economics and regulatory affairs at the American Petroleum Institute, called the new energy council a good thing for the U.S. economy and trade. Conceptually, it makes perfect sense to have as much coordination as possible, he said.

Nonetheless, market dynamics will still be key to any potential increase in energy production, Meyer said.

Jonathan Elkind, a senior fellow at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, called energy dominance a deliberately vague concept, but said: “It's hard to see how (Trump) can push more oil on a already saturated market.

Trump has promised to bring gasoline prices below $2 a gallon, but experts say that is highly unlikely because crude oil prices would have to fall significantly to reach that goal. Gas prices averaged $3.07 nationally on Wednesday, down from $3.25 a year ago.

Elkind and other experts said they hope the new energy council will look beyond oil to focus on renewable energy such as wind, solar and geothermal power, as well as nuclear. None of these energy resources produce greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change.

Failing to focus on climate change as an existential threat to our planet is a major concern and results in a very significant loss of American property and American lives,” said Elkind, former US deputy energy secretary. Obama administration. He cited federal statistics showing two dozen weather disasters this year that each caused more than $1 billion in damage. In total, 418 people were killed.

Trump downplayed climate change risks and pledged to reverse unspent money from the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden's landmark climate and health care bill . He also said he would halt offshore wind development when he returns to the White House in January.

Despite this, his November 15 announcement to the Energy Council says he will expand ALL forms of energy production to grow our economy and create good-paying jobs.

That includes renewable energy, said Safak Yucel, an associate professor at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business.

The Energy Council's mandate is American dominance on a global scale, but what's more American than American solar and wind? he asked. An Ernst & Young report last year showed that solar power was the cheapest source of electricity for new construction in many markets.

Trump, in his statement, said he wants to dramatically increase baseload power to reduce electricity costs, avoid brownouts, and WIN the battle for AI superiority.

In comments to reporters before being named to the energy post, Burgum cited a similar goal, pointing to growing demand for electricity from artificial intelligence, commonly known as AI, and fast-growing data centers . The AI ​​battle affects everything from defense to health care to education to productivity as a country, Burgum said.

Even though Trump derides the climate law as another green scam, he is unlikely to repeal it, Yucel and other experts said. One reason: Most of its investments and jobs are in Republican congressional districts. Republican congressmen urged House Speaker Mike Johnson to keep the law, which passed with only Democratic votes.

Many Southern states are telling Trump, 'We actually like renewable energy,' Yucel said, noting that Republican-led states have created thousands of jobs in recent years in wind energy sectors , solar and battery.

If renewable energy makes economic sense, he added, it will continue.

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