China: Xi Jinping caught in an “endless purge” within the army?

Policy

Published on November 30, 2024
Updated November 30, 2024

One of the main leaders of Chinese weapons officially fell this week. General Miao Hua, close ally of Xi Jinping, could be indicted for corruption. How to explain his suspension? The start of a new major purge within the Beijing military establishment?

This Thursday, November 28, during a press conference of the Minister of Defense, one of his spokespersons, Wu Qian, announced that Miao Hua was suspended from his functions. The director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission is under investigation on suspicion of serious disciplinary violations. Of course, this information was first reported by Hong Kong media. It took several hours before the Party deigned to make it public.

But then what should we think of Miao Hua’s suspension? Let us first recall the rumors that have already been hovering around Miao since July, fueled in particular by the impromptu promotion, on July 9, of General He Hongjun () to the position of deputy director in charge of daily affairs in the department headed by Miao. In this context, this custody of Miao Hua is undoubtedly as surprising as it was predictable. In principle, we do not appoint a general of the same rank as the head of the department to assist him. This promotion of He Hongjun was already seen in July as a gesture of distrust towards Miao.

Miao Hua had succeeded in putting together a team, establishing an important network alongside the two main fringes of the PLA and playing the role of the man of compromise. As a result, Xi Jinping often opted for candidates suggested by Miao in order to avoid too much favoring on one side the Vietnam veterans and General Zhang Youxia, first vice-president of the CMC, or on the other side, the clique of Taihai () in favor of the invasion of Tawan and General He Weidong, second vice-president of the CMC behind Zhou and Xi in the protocol order. That said, it is very likely that the appointment of Dong Jun as Minister of Defense, which enraged both Zhang Youxia and He Weidong, was the straw that broke the camel's back. And it is precisely these tensions between Zhang, He and Miao and Xi himself that partly explain why Dong, in office for almost a year, is still not a member of the CMC, nor even a state advisor.

Let us also remember that several other senior PLA officers owe Miao Hua a lot. Among them, Hu Zhongming (), appointed Commander of the Navy in December 2023, Wang Houbin (), Commander of the Missile Force since July 2023, and Wang Renhua (), Party Secretary of the Political and Political Affairs Commission legal of the APL since December 2019.

Which brings us to a more concrete point: the impact of a potential purge on the PLA's mobilization and intervention capabilities. In fact, following a series of problems discovered during the purge of the Missile Force and the equipment department, the Party and the high command appeared to have much more to do to rectify the situation in order to consider preparing the army for a potential campaign in the Tawan Strait. However, they are still far from having completed the inventory of defective equipment and having resolved the problems of insubordination, training and corruption discovered during the burst of disciplinary investigations in 2023. Needless to specify the harmful effects of a new purge while the previous one is not finished, both on Xi Jinping's strategic agenda and on his relations with the remainder of the high command. After all, Miao Hua was promoted by Xi and served as an important ally and informant during the implementation of the 2015-2016 national defense and military comprehensive reform program.

Many will be happy to see Miao Hua, a troublemaker par excellence, go, and indirectly, to see one of Xi's favorite political control structures within the PLA scuttled. All this risks forcing the Chinese president to rethink his relationship with the other members of the CMC. Either he chooses to make concessions – for example, stop constantly feeding the army political education and rely more on the military expertise of the generals in place – in order to avoid overflows and, potentially, a long period of organizational instability. Either he begins to think about how to get rid of the influence of Zhang Youxia and He Weidong in order to control, once and for all, the entire command of the PLA.

All that will then remain is to formalize the replacement of Miao by his deputy, General He Hongjun, an acceptable choice for some, or to begin negotiations between Xi, Zhang and He in order to find a less problematic candidate for the proper functioning of the military apparatus. . One thing is certain: the suspension of Miao Hua is the perfect opportunity to review the mode of operation of the Political Affairs Department and to provide the PLA with a real department of the Organization which would be separated from the internal propaganda apparatus.