Xi unlikely to attempt to invade Taiwan during Trump's second term, experts say

Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to attempt to invade Taiwan during U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's term in office, Taiwanese and foreign academics said Friday.

Trump is expected to begin his second term early next year.

Xi's ambition to establish China as a true world power has intensified over the years, but he would not launch an invasion of Taiwan in the near future, as his top priority is maintaining the regime and its power , not unification, according to Tokyo Women's Christian University. » said Akio Takahara, visiting professor and expert in contemporary Chinese politics.

Photo: Reuters

Takahara made the comments during a symposium in Taipei organized by the Institute of International Relations of National Chengchi University to discuss the potential impact of Trump's return to the White House on Indo-Pacific countries. , including Taiwan.

He pointed out that Xi stopped short of telling former US President Barack Obama that the Pacific Ocean was big enough for the United States and China, but last year told US President Joe Biden that the world could accommodate both countries.

Viewing the Pacific Ocean from China's perspective, Xi sees the unification of Taiwan as essential, not only as a highly nationalist goal, but also as a means of breaking through the premier island chain and securing an advantage in competition. strategic with the United States, Takahara said.

When Xi Jinping finds out that it is better to attack Taiwan to maintain power, then I think he will attack, but it's not tomorrow, it's not next year, it's not 2027 , he said, adding that the Chinese president would likely continue to attack. its current strategy of victory without combat, which relies on economic and cultural infiltration into Taiwan.

If Trump does not fundamentally change U.S.-Taiwan policy, then Xi will likely refrain from using military force against Taiwan during his second term, Takahara said.

Attacking Taiwan is too risky, as such action would seriously harm China's economy and certainly undermine the source of its economy. [Xis] legitimacy to govern, he said.

In the event of an unwarranted invasion of China, the United States will likely intervene with Japan's support, provided its Taiwan policy remains unchanged, he added.

Echoing Takahara, Dennis Weng, associate professor in the political science department at Sam Houston State University () said that under the Trump administration, there would be no war or military conflicts between Taiwan and China, as Trump strongly opposes military confrontation.

It will use all kinds of bargaining or negotiations to prevent a war between Taiwan and China, Weng said.

Although China is unlikely to launch an invasion of Taiwan in the next four years, Beijing would use other tools at its disposal, such as severing trade deals with Taiwan and further isolating it by stripping it of diplomatic allies remaining, he said.

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