China attacks South Asia; The Pakistan-Bangladesh-Nepal trio welcomes Beijing; Leaves India very worried

Geopolitical equations in South Asia are undergoing a tectonic shift – a major concern for Indian foreign policy experts.

Chinese warships docked in Bangladesh for the first time since the new government came to power in August, and Nepal's prime minister made his first visit to Beijing, breaking with the tradition of first visiting New Delhi; Meanwhile, Dhaka and Islamabad are becoming closer than they have been since their partition in 1971.

Under pressure from New Delhi, Sri Lanka imposed a moratorium on Chinese survey ships docking in its port. However, this moratorium will end on December 31 this year. India has very cleverly balanced its ties with Russia and the West, but it is losing allies in its neighborhood.

India's sphere of influence, which has remained strong over South Asia since independence, is in decline. China's trade, connectivity, political, military and soft power engagement with every country in South Asia has increased significantly over the past decade. despite its growing global importance, India's influence is paradoxically weakening in South Asia, Dr. Happymon Jacob wrote in an article after Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a third term.

Nepalese Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli broke with tradition in his fourth term by traveling to Beijing before New Delhi. The Global Times said the visit indicated a growing weakening of India's control over the structure of the South Asian region.

During his visit, Prime Minister Oli met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Nepal and China have signed the much-awaited framework agreement on the multi-billion dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), paving the way for enhanced economic cooperation on these projects.

The BRI is Xi Jinping's flagship project, connecting China with Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Russia and Europe. Nepal and China signed the BRI agreement in 2017; however, no project has been implemented in this framework.

The China-Nepal joint statement issued after the visit highlighted that “the two sides agreed to jointly advance the fourth phase of the Araniko Highway maintenance project with the assistance of China and the Hilsa- Simikot, to implement the second phase of the improvement of the Kathmandu ring road. Project, and we welcome the signing of the letters of exchange for the approval of the draft feasibility study of the Chinese aid project for the Tokha-Chhahare tunnel.

China's charm offensive in Nepal could push the Himalayan country away from India. In 2024, the already unstable ties between India and Nepal faced another obstacle when Nepal introduced a new banknote representing territories claimed by India.

Then, Nepalese Prime Minister Pushpakamal Dahal Prachanda decided to print the new map of Nepal, which includes the territory of Lipulekh, Limpiyadhura and Kalapani in the banknotes worth Rs 100. The new map on the banknote of bank comes after the Nepal government described India's claims to the territories as artificial enlargement and untenable.

Nepal shares a border of over 1,850 km with five Indian states: Sikkim, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Since Nepal is a buffer state between China and India, both countries aspire to power in the region, and the Kalapani conflict may impact relations between the three.

Nepal and India have maintained close ties since the latter's independence. A 1950 bilateral treaty made Nepal a protectorate of India and made India responsible for its defense. Over time, Nepal sought to amend the treaty and achieve a more equal status with India.

Nepal, a landlocked country, has always depended on India for its imports. Therefore, the economic blockade imposed by India in 2015 was a rude awakening for the Himalayan country. The country slowly moved away from India and China stepped in to fill the void with investment, aid and loans.

Indiaalso squandered its goodwill in the country, as its new recruitment program for the Indian Army excluded Nepalese Gurkhas from the Indian Army.its Gurkha regiments. It has been almost three years and not a single Nepalese Gurkha has joined the Indian Army, straining century-old ties.

After submarines, other Chinese combat planes for Bangladesh?

The ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina during the Monsoon Revolution is bad news for India. China has built a submarine base in Bangladesh and Chinese submarines are also expected to dock at this base in the future.

But the future could arrive sooner than expected. In October, Chinese naval warships docked at the port of Chittagong, Bangladesh, for the first time since the new government took office in August.

Bangladesh Air Force (BAF) chief Hasan Mahmood Khan visited China for nine days, sparking rumors that the BAF would opt for another Chinese fighter jet, despite earlier complaints about the poor quality of Chinese platforms.

Currently, Bangladesh is the world's second-largest buyer of Chinese arms, with two-thirds of its arms supplied by Beijing. And this will definitely increase in the future.

Dhaka could choose to buy weapons from Beijing to circumvent geopolitical obstacles. Furthermore, it is expected that drop of 10 percent Bangladesh's military acquisition budgets this year could push it to turn to cheaper Chinese weapons. China also facilitates these acquisitions through credits and subsidized loans.

According to reports, Beijing is likely to offer Dhaka a plethora of weapons and systems, including J-10C multi-role combat aircraft, Z-10 attack helicopters, Wing Loong 1 attack drones, surface-to-air missiles, air HQ-9, Yuan-class submarines and Type 054 frigates. Bangladeshi scholars have also called on the interim government of Bangladesh to opt for Chinese fighter jets JF-17 Thunder.

Since 2009, China has become thethe largest supplier of arms in Dhaka. Chinese weapons are estimated to make up 82 percent of the total inventory of Bangladesh's defense forces. These include Ming-class diesel-electric attack submarines, Shadhinota-class C13B corvettes, MBT-2000 Type 90-II and VT-5 light tanks, HQ short-range surface-to-air missiles -7 and 36 F-7BGI fighters. jets. Beijing also granted Dhaka a license to manufacture various Chinese small arms and light weapons.

Is Bangladesh cutting the umbilical cord with India?

Already frayed ties between India and Bangladesh received a fresh blow after Dhaka recalled its envoy from New Delhi in October. On November 5, the caretaker government of Bangladesh also recalled its acting deputy high commissioner in Calcutta and its deputy high commissioner in Agartala, following protests in India against the trial of Hindu leaders in Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, the National Board of Revenue of Bangladesh (NBR) has removed mandatory physical inspection of goods imported from Pakistan under the ease of doing business. Pakistan was the only country to benefit from this benefit, raising concerns about the risk of illegal arms transfers and smuggling.

In a historic first since the founding of Bangladesh in 1971, a direct cargo ship from Pakistan docked at the Bangladeshi port of Chittagong on November 11, signaling an unprecedented thaw in relations between the two countries, which were part of the same nation for almost a quarter of a century.

The cargo ship from Karachi arrived in Chittagong, a port city in southeastern Bangladesh, marking the first direct maritime contact between the two countries in more than five decades.

The establishment of a direct sea link between India's eastern and western neighbors marks a major realignment in the region and has alarmed New Delhi.

Bangladesh's new caretaker government is also expanding its military ties with Islamabad. In September, Bangladesh ordered 40,000 rounds of ammunition, 2,000 units of tank ammunition, 40 tonnes of RDX explosives and 2,900 high-intensity projectiles from Pakistan's Ordnance Factories (POF).

Last month, Professor Shahiduzzamaneven of the University of Dhakacalledin favor of a nuclear treaty between Bangladesh and Pakistan, citing concerns about India's influence in the region and suggesting that Pakistan's Ghauri missiles be deployed in Bangladesh.

Sri Lanka's balance between India and China

In November 2024, Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake's left-wing coalition won early parliamentary elections. Dissanayake's National People's Power (NPP) coalition won a two-thirds majority in the legislative elections. parliamentwinning 159 of 225 seats, a huge lead over the opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) alliance, which won 40 seats.

The proximity of nuclear power plants to China and Dissanayake's close relationship with the Chinese Communist Party are concerning, and India will have to wait and watch to see how the new president balances his country's foreign relations with the various competing forces.

Dissanayake has historically criticized the 1987 India-Sri Lanka Accord and expressed ambivalence towards the 13th Amendment, which would have transferred powers to Tamil minorities.

During his presidential campaign, Dissanayake pledged not to allow Sri Lankan territory to be used to threaten India or regional stability. This engagement addresses India's concerns over China's growing influence in the Indian Ocean and its use of Sri Lankan ports for strategic purposes.

Now that the Sri Lankan moratorium on Chinese research vessels ends on December 31, it remains to be seen whether the ban will be extended.

The changing geopolitical equations in South Asia call for a recalibration not only at the level of the Indian Army but also at the level of the national security architecture.

• Ritu Sharma has been writing on defense and foreign affairs for almost 17 years. She holds a master's degree in conflict studies and peace management from the University of Erfurt, Germany. His areas of interest include Asia-Pacific, the South China Sea and aviation history.
• She can be contacted at ritu.sharma(at)mail.com