China needs a new approach in Syria – Foreign Policy

Welcome toForeign policys File on China.

Highlights of the week: China reflects on its approach after the collapse of the Syrian governmentChinese officials are watching Political crisis in South Korea with caution and calm, and TikTok loses appeal against US law that could lead to app ban.

Welcome toForeign policys File on China.

Highlights of the week: China reflects on its approach after the collapse of the Syrian governmentChinese officials are watching Political crisis in South Korea with caution and calm, and TikTok loses appeal against US law that could lead to app ban.

China reacts to the fall of Assad in Syria

After the rapid collapse of the Syrian government on Sunday, China will likely reflect on its losing bet on President Bashar al-Assad's regime. But when the dust clears, Damascus' new rulers may be looking for reliable allies.

China has aligned itself with Assad since Syria's civil war began in 2011, but largely due to its close ties with Russia and Iran, which have supported the Syrian leader. At the United Nations, Beijing has often vote working closely with Moscow, blocking Assad's condemnations as well as cross-border aid. China significantly reduced its presence in Syria in the middle of the conflict, even if it maintained invest in the country.

Chinese President Xi Jinping met Assad in Hangzhou before last year's Asian Games. At the time, China believed the Syrian government was on the verge of a clear victory in the civil war. The two countries have elevated their ties to a strategic partnership, but additional investment was slow to come. (Syria joined China's Belt and Road Initiative in 2022, but it has not hosted any projects.)

Like the rest of the world, China has been caught off guard by the rapid advance of rebels in Syria since the end of last month, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Last week, Chinese experts on the Middle East were still planning a long and drawn-out war in Syria as ChinaMed Project helpfully covered.

Chinese discourse on the Syrian civil war has previously been somewhat triumphalist. Many analysts suggested that Beijing's support for Assad was justified by his regime's apparent victory, and there was also praise for the wave of reconciliation – a favorite term of Chinese state media – which reportedly flooded the Middle East in the aftermath China's successful negotiations on Saudi-Iranian rapprochement last year.

The experts and officials concerned will now seek an explanation for the emptiness of the Assad regime and the success of the rebels. There is genuine expertise among Chinese scholars on the Middle East, but there is also a tendency among Chinese officials to jump to conclusions, such as blame the CIA for what we call color revolutions.

An immediate concern will be the safety of Chinese nationals in Syria, which Beijing already supports. encouraging leave the country. It is unclear how many Chinese citizens are in Syria, given the cautious approach to invest in it.

In 2011, China evacuated 35,000 of its citizens from Libya amid the conflict there. A similar operation in Syria is possible, but unlikely unless the situation deteriorates rapidly or Xi decides it could provide a propaganda opportunity. (Many Chinese films glorifying the army, focused on the operation in Libya, in particular on the massive coup Wolf Warrior 2.)

Beijing's other major concern will be the presence of Uyghur fighters among rebel forces in Syria. Estimates of their numbers range from hundreds to thousands. China will prioritize pressuring Syria's new leaders to exclude these fighters from any role in government and, ideally, expel them to China. This can be tricky, as Uyghur activists have a employment relationship with HTS.

Yet any new leader in Damascus will likely also be keen to establish relations with Beijing. Syria lost 85 percent of its GDP during the war. A first step toward strengthening ties could be to protect Chinese assets; it is possible that the Uyghur fighters will end up as sacrificial pawns.

Meanwhile, Chinese awareness of HTS will likely come through Turkey, which has considerable links with the militant group. But Beijing is ideologically flexible enough to accommodate almost any government that rises from the ashes in Damascus.

What followed

Crisis in South Korea. Despite the chaos in Syria, Chinese leaders are perhaps paying as much attention to dramatic events happening closer to home: South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is sometimes seen as a Chinese falconappears to be on the verge of extinction after his outlandish declaration and quickly lifting of martial law last week.

Yoon survived an impeachment vote in the National Assembly over the weekend, but the leader of his own party called for the president to resign. China has remained very silent on the issue, sticking to a stance of not commenting on other countries' internal affairs. when asked; Media coverage of the Chinese state has been relatively neutral.

This may be because Chinese officials are understandably uncertain about what happens next in South Korea, but also because Yoon was not the worst possible option for China. Despite the work he has done to build relations with the United States, which has made him a favorite in Washington, Yoon could be surprisingly diplomatic when it comes to Beijing.

The South Korean public turned abruptly against China since Bullying in Beijing on Seoul's deployment of an American high-altitude missile defense system. But Yoon was ready to reach out to his foreign adversaries, meeting with Xi no later than November. If it is reported that Yoon was ready to risk war North Korea's desire to stay in power is proving true, but Beijing might be particularly happy to see it go.

Fears of deflation. Worrying data on inflation in China, or rather on the lack of thatshook Asian markets. China's consumer price index remains on the verge of deflation, and factory prices are also caught in a deflationary situation. deflationary cycle. With manufacturers under pressure from overproduction and price wars on electric vehicles and e-commerce, this trend has following for more than two years.

The Chinese government has promised a moderately soft deal monetary policy after a high-level economic meeting this week, using language last seen in the wake of the 2008-09 global financial crisis. References to extraordinary countercyclical measures This could mean that Xi is finally ready to abandon stimulus measures in 2025.

Most read FPs this week

Technology and business

The TikToks clock is winding down. Last week, TikTok lost a key call against the American law passed in April, requiring parent company ByteDance to sell the social media app to a U.S. partner by Jan. 19, 2025, or face a U.S. ban. A frenzied public relations campaign by TikTok in March largely backfired, convincing U.S. lawmakers that the app had real power to influence opinion on China's behalf.

Although ByteDance has no power to resist the Chinese state, the evidence that Beijing has attempted to use TikTok for influence is thin, as the court notedeven though academic studies have shown a certain bias towards the Chinese government's views on the app. TikTok is now trying a more nuanced approach, arguing that small American businesses would lose out $1.3 billion only the first month of a ban.

But the real target of TikTok's lobbying is US President-elect Donald Trump, who abruptly changed his position on the ban his own administration had tried to impose after lobbying from the Republican donor and TikTok investor. Jeff Yass. The US law takes effect the day before Trump's inauguration, but he some optionssuch as pressuring the Justice Department not to enforce the ban.

Given Trump's image as a dealmaker, a more likely scenario might be that he finds a relatively acceptable buyer for ByteDance.

NVIDIA investigation. China is sharpening its weapons for an upcoming clash with the United States over tariffs and sanctions, starting with a just-announced deal. antitrust investigation in the American chip giant Nvidia. However, Nvidia and other semiconductor manufacturers have generally pressures against chip sanctions in Washington, making them potentially useful for Beijing.

China seems to have decided to try to push Nvidias business to domestic giants such as Huawei. But U.S. manufacturers still have a technological advantage over China when it comes to high-quality chips. A new push from Trump Silicon Valley consiglieres is also likely to increase demand for high-end chips, which are used to crypto mining.

Meanwhile, Beijing cuts drone components and trying to strangle us supply chains. The technology conflict between the United States and China is already escalating; Depending on Trump's actions when he takes office, the situation could get heated. Between tariffs, sanctions and demand, electronics prices could skyrocket next year.