What Assad's fall means for Beijing

Welcome to the China In Eurasia Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm Reid Standish, RFE/RL correspondent, and I'm back from a reporting trip to Taiwan. I'm going away for the holidays again but will be back here with another newsletter at the end of the year.

This is what I am at the moment.

Beijing watches Assad fall

The effects of the rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria are still being felt on the ground, but its sudden fall is set to shake up the Middle East and beyond.

Here's what this means for China.

Find a perspective: China has aligned itself with Assad since Syria's civil war began in 2011, but largely due to its close ties with Russia and Iran, which have supported the Syrian leader.

At the United Nations, Beijing has often voted with Moscow, blocking condemnations of Assad as well as cross-border aid. Beijing has backed the Assad regime with eight vetoes at the UN, half of the total vetoes ever used by China.

Beijing significantly reduced its presence in Syria amid the conflict, while continuing to build close ties with Assad, ultimately culminating with his state visit to China in 2023.

Chinese investment in Syria was rare and, beyond a strategic partnership agreement and a commitment to join the Belt and Road Initiative, there has been virtually no Chinese investment in Syria nor no major contracts with Chinese companies in the country since 2010.

So why did Beijing throw all its weight behind Assad?

Revisiting the Arab Spring: For Beijing, the bigger problem was the symbolism and appearance of stability that Assad represented, especially since he was first threatened by a popular uprising that then sparked the Syrian civil war.

The spread of revolutions across the Arab world in 2011 was alarming for the Chinese Communist Party.

At the time in China, popular discontent over corruption at various levels of government was common, and the party feared that protests across the Middle East could inspire its own population, particularly given simmering tensions in Tibet and Xinjiang at the time.

Added to this is the rise of the Islamic State in Syria. The war has led thousands of Uyghurs, the predominantly Muslim group in western China, to travel to Syria to fight against the Syrian government.

Many of these fighters said they were there to learn how to use the weapons and then return to China, and fears about the return of seasoned fighters to Xinjiang was one of the excuses Xi gave senior party leaders to launch repression and the camp system. in western China which targeted the Uyghur population, according to to a set of leaked internal government documents obtained by The New York Times.

Why it's important: By this logic, Beijing's support for Assad makes sense, but it is a big gamble that has not paid off.

The fall of Assad is also a reflection of the weakening of the regional power of two of his main partners: Iran and Russia.

Their failure to support Assad indicates that they have been consumed by wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Ukraine, which could worry Beijing in the future.

The rapid collapse of the Syrian government is also an unwanted message for Beijing, which was reflected in the way Chinese media covered the events to Chinese viewers.

As images of cheering crowds and toppled statues circulated around the world, Chinese state media coverage of CCTV focused primarily on a live still image of Damascus with no crowds in sight.

Three more stories from Eurasia

1. China flexes its muscles around Taiwan

Beijing said it was taking “necessary measures” to defend the country's sovereignty and would not tolerate “separatist” activities, as Taiwan reported a further increase in the number of Chinese warplanes and ships near the island.

The details: Taiwan's Defense Ministry said China is deploying its largest naval fleet to regional waters in nearly three decades, posing a more pronounced threat to Taiwan than previous Chinese war exercises.

China, which considers Taiwan its own territory, was expected to launch drills to express anger over President Lai Ching-te's Pacific tour that ended last week and included stops in Hawaii and on the American territory of Guam.

With no announcement from China on the military exercises, Taiwan officials are calling the ongoing activity a training exercise and have warned it could be used to further violate Taiwan's territorial borders.

China, which considers Lai a separatist, held major military exercises around Taiwan after his inauguration in May and his National Day speech in October. It also organized a major exercise after then-Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022.

2. The California Connection

A Chinese company that owns a California electronics distributor has sent hundreds of shipments of restricted dual-use technology to Russia since the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine, including to sanctioned companies with ties to the military Russian, my colleagues Mike Eckel and Mark Krutov report.

What you need to know: The findings further highlight the difficulty Western countries have had in trying to prevent the Russian military from accessing Western technology for use in its weapons and operations as its war against Ukraine escalates. continues.

At least one component manufactured by Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Company Limited has been discovered in a Russian weapons guidance system recovered from the battlefield in Ukraine, according to a public database maintained by the Ukrainian military.

Yangjie Technology, located in the city of Yangzhou, northwest of Shanghai, has sent more than 200 shipments of specific goods to Russia since its large-scale invasion began in February 2022, according to customs records obtained by C4ADS. a company based in Washington. non-profit global data analysis and research organization.

The listed contents of these shipments – in total at least 238 – included electronic components classified as “high priority” by the United States due to their potential use in Russian weapons systems, according to data obtained by C4ADS and shared with RFE/RL, which has independently corroborated more than 150 such submissions.

3. China and Serbia consider new cooperation on extraditions

Serbia has extradited five Chinese citizens in the past five years, according to the data obtained by my colleague Mila Manojlovic from RFE/RL's Balkans service.

What this means: Data shows that extraditions are already taking place. This cooperation is also expected to grow as Serbia's Justice Ministry prepares to submit to Parliament an extradition bill with China that, if passed, would expand the scope of cooperation between Beijing and Belgrade.

This extradition agreement, which would regulate the bilateral extradition of citizens accused of crimes, is seen by experts as a response to the influx of tourists and Chinese nationals to Serbia which corresponds to large-scale Chinese investments and loans for projects through the BIS.

According to data from the National Employment Service of Serbia, more than 45,000 work permits have been issued to Chinese citizens since 2016, when the ruling Serbian Progressive Party began to intensify its relations with Beijing and expand BIS projects.

Serbia's Interior Ministry told RFE/RL that there are currently 3,433 Chinese citizens registered in the country.

Across the supercontinent

Looking to 2025: Here is my take on what's on Taiwan's agenda as we prepare to enter 2025, as part of a broader forward-looking view of the entire RFE/RL coverage region. My segment starts at 7:25.

Rail connections: THE first train carrying goods from China to Afghanistan arrived in Mazar-e Sharif on November 23 after passing through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

The Taliban said 55 containers arrived in Afghanistan after a 22-day journey, marking the inauguration of the first direct rail link between China and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.

The new normal: From attacks in Pakistan to new episodes in Tajikistan, my colleagues Bashir Ahmad Gwakh and Frud Bezhan examine how new violence in South and Central Asia could affect Chinese investment plans in the region.

A late warning: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on December 2 warned his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that Beijing's support for Russia would have an “impact” on relations with Europe.

One thing to watch out for

According to Following a sanctions plan obtained by RFE/RL, the European Union proposed for the first time targeting Chinese companies and individuals with visa bans and asset freezes because of their dealings with Russian companies linked to Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.

The draft sanctions were first shared with EU countries on November 22 and will still need to be approved before the end of the year by all 27 member states to come into force.

That's it for me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments or advice you may have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

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