Why Donald Trump is increasing mass deportations

A chilling scene from the new movie Wicked sums up what's wrong with President-elect Donald Trump's view of immigrants.

The two witches, Elphaba and Glinda, went to the Emerald City to meet the wonderful Wizard of Oz. The sorcerer explains to them that he plans to consolidate his power over his troubled country by demonizing its animals, who not only have the power to speak but are also the equals of human beings. He will strip them of the ability to speak and lock them in cages.

But why would you do such a thing, asks the tender-hearted, green-skinned Elphaba, whose horror at his plan will eventually transform her into the Wicked Witch of the West.

The best way to bring people together, the wonderful Wizard of Oz tells women, is to give them a really good enemy.

This is the essence of Trump's immigration policy.

Trump told Kristen Welker of NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday that he plans to keep his campaign promise to deport millions of people.

You have no choice, he says. First of all, they cost us a fortune. But we start with the criminals, and we must. And then we start with the others, and we'll see how it goes.

He then absurdly claimed that more than 13,000 undocumented murderers have been released into our country over the past three years.

They walk the streets, he said. They walk alongside you and your family. And they are very dangerous people.

When Welker tried to point out that he was misinterpreting the data, Trump doubled down: It's 13,099, and it's during the Biden period. And they are murderers, many of whom have murdered more than one person.

This is obviously false. The Department of Homeland Security reported that more than 13,000 non-citizens have been convicted of homicide in the United States over the past four decades, including during Trump's first term. And most of them were in prisons and not walking the streets.

I truly cannot believe that we will be forced to spend the next four years debunking Trump's apocalyptic fantasies or how miserable he will make life for so many people because of his need to make enemies of people whose skin color does not match his.

Whether or not immigrants cost us a fortune is one of the most studied questions in the entire field of immigration studies. Time and time again, experts have concluded that immigrants do not cost American taxpayers a fortune, depress wages, increase government deficits and debt, or commit a disproportionate share of crime.

At the dawn of the Biden administration, after four years of Trump's bashing of immigrants, immigration expert Alex Nowrasteh of the libertarian Cato Institute wrote a clever little booklet, The Most Common Arguments Against Immigration and why they are wrong. This is a very useful and easy to digest primer on the lies commonly told against immigration, legal and illegal.

The most common idea is that immigrants take Americans' jobs, lower their wages and hurt the poor. As Nowrasteh writes, this claim is most supported by the evidence that refutes it.

He cites a study by George Borjas, a Harvard labor economist and immigration expert, who found that between 1990 and 2010, the only group of people whose wages were negatively affected by immigrants were high school dropouts born in the country, which represent approximately 9% of the population. American adults. Wages for these groups fell by less than 2%. But Borjas also found that immigrants raised the wages of other native-born Americans, leading to a net increase in native wages of about 0.6 percent.

I'd love to put Nowrasteh's booklet in Trump's stocking this Christmas, but, as we've learned, he's not a big fan of reading.

So how many people will Trump deport? It's impossible to know for sure, but you can be sure that he intends to inflict as much pain as possible.

Eleven million undocumented immigrants lived in the United States in 2022, 6 million of whom were employed, according to the American Immigration Council. More than 1.5 million people work in the construction sector, representing approximately 13.7% of the workforce. Nearly a quarter of a million people work in agriculture, or 12.7% of workers. One million work in the hotel industry, or 7.1% of the active population.

Trump's new border czar, Tom Homan, said the government would focus first on deporting criminals, but that all undocumented immigrants in the country would face deportation.

Not surprisingly, agriculture groups are frantically pressuring Trump to exempt farmworkers from deportation. Builders say a mass eviction would worsen the current labor shortage and further drive up housing prices.

The storyline is reminiscent of the 2004 mockumentary, A Day Without a Mexican, in which a mysterious pall of fog descends on California and 14 million Latinos suddenly disappear, wreaking havoc on every sector of the economy. Last summer, to celebrate the film's 20th anniversary, filmmakers Sergio Arau and Yareli Arizmendi screened it across the country.

When we did a screening a month ago, Arizmendi told my colleague Andrea Flores in July, someone called me a prophet because that's exactly what Trump is saying today.

Blue Sky: @rabcarian.bsky.social. Topics: @rabcarian

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