Fall of Al-Assad in Syria: what is at stake for China? | News from the war in Syria

As China hosted the 19th Asian Games in September last year, President Xi Jinping hosted Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad at a picturesque lakeside guesthouse in the eastern city of Hangzhou.

By the time Xi and al-Assad emerged from their meeting, China and Syria had formed what they called a strategic partnership.

Just over a year later, that partnership is in tatters, after opposition rebel groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), seized the Syrian capital, Damascus, on Sunday, toppling al- Assad, who fled to Russia.

Since then, China has been cautious in its response to the rapid changes in Syria. On Monday, China's Foreign Ministry said a political solution must be found as quickly as possible in Syria to restore stability.

But while this caution also reflects how China has approached its relations with Syria more broadly, Al-Assad's sudden ouster affects the world's second-largest economy just as it increasingly attempts to expand its presence in the Middle East, analysts believe.

So what has China's relationship been like with Syria, and how will it change with the new leadership in Damascus?

What happened in Syria?

Syria's war broke out in 2011 after Al-Assad suppressed protests against his government. The protests then turned into a rebellion, involving several groups.

The Russian and Iranian governments, Lebanese Hezbollah, and some other Iran-aligned groups in the region have supported al-Assad. The United States, Turkey and most Middle Eastern countries have meanwhile criticized al-Assad and his brutal crackdown on civilian populations and the political opposition.

On November 27, rebel groups, led by HTS, launched a major offensive from their base in Idlib Governorate in northwest Syria. In three days, opposition fighters captured Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo. A little over a week later, they took Damascus. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday that Al-Assad had been granted asylum in Russia.

What has been China's relationship with al-Assad?

Officially, China has been reluctant to take sides on Syria's future direction since the collapse of al-Assad's regime.

“The future and destiny of Syria must be decided by the Syrian people, and we hope that all parties concerned will find a political solution to restore stability and order as quickly as possible,” said Mao Ning, door -spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, during a regular press conference. Monday.

However, even though China has not been directly militarily involved in the war in Syria, unlike Iran and Russiarelations between Damascus and Beijing were warm when al-Assad was in power.

And it was getting hotter and hotter.

The Syrian leader's visit to Hangzhou was his first official trip to the country in nearly two decades. During the trip, China pledged to help al-Assad rebuild Syria after more than a decade of war, at a time when the Syrian leader was a pariah to many countries around the world.

Faced with an international situation full of instability and uncertainty, China is willing to continue to work with Syria, firmly support each other, promote friendly cooperation and jointly uphold international fairness and justice, said Xi to al-Assad, according to Chinese state media. .

Xi added that relations between the two countries have stood the test of international changes.

Diplomatic shield for al-Assad

China has used its veto power in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to block draft resolutions criticizing al-Assad ten times. This is out of 30 resolutions related to the war in Syria proposed to the UN Security Council.

In July 2020, for example, Russia and China vetoed a draft resolution to expand aid deliveries from Turkey to Syria. The reason behind this veto, according to the countries, was that it violated Syria's sovereignty and that aid had to be distributed by Syrian authorities. The remaining 13 members voted for the resolution to pass.

Chinese Ambassador to the UN Zhang Jun has accused unilateral sanctions against Syria of worsening the humanitarian situation in the country. The sanctions were imposed by the United States and the European Union.

In September 2019, Russia and China vetoed a draft resolution calling for a ceasefire in Syria's Idlib, a rebel stronghold.

I think the Chinese, as they have repeatedly done, sided with the Russians out of solidarity, but that was actually Russia's objection to this resolution, Diplomatic Editor James Bays said at the time. from Al Jazeeras.

Chinese money in Al-Assad's Syria

But China has been more than an ally of Russia in Syria. Over the past decade, China has increased its financial aid to Syria, a sign of its support for Al-Assad's government.

In December 2016, the Syrian government won a victory against the rebels by retaking the city of Aleppo. This marked a turning point in China's aid strategy, according to the independent Cyprus-based risk and development consultancy, the Center for Operational Analysis and Research (COAR).

Chinese aid to Syria increased 100-fold, from around $500,000 in 2016 to $54 million in 2017, according to COAR reports. In October 2018, China donated 800 power generators to Latakia, Syria's largest port.

Beijing has also made major long-term investments in Syrian oil and gas, totaling around $3 billion.

In 2008, Chinese petrochemical company Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation bought Calgary-based Canadian company Tanganyika Oil in a deal worth about $2 billion. Tanganyika had a production sharing agreement with Syria and held operational interests in two Syrian properties.

In 2009, the Chinese multinational Sinochem bought the British oil and gas company Emerald Energy, which operates in Syria, for $878 million.

And in 2010, the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed an agreement with Shell to acquire a 35% stake in Shell's unit in Syria.

Earlier this year, Syrian Electricity Minister Ghassan Al-Zamel confirmed a 38.2 million euro (about $40 million) contract with a Chinese company to build a large photovoltaic plant near Homs, in western Syria, according to the Berlin publication The Syria Report. .

In 2022, Syria also joined Xi's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a network of highways, ports and railways that China is building, connecting Asia to Africa, Europe and Latin America.

Investment in Syria since its entry into the BRI has been slow and, facing the threat of US secondary sanctions, China has divestment from some of its projects in Syria in recent years.

Yet China remains Syria's third-largest source of imports behind Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, according to the Economic Complexity Observatory. In 2022, Chinese exports to Syria amounted to $424 million, driven by fabric, iron and rubber tires. Syrian exports to China are negligible in comparison and are dominated by soap, olive oil and other plant products.

How will the situation in Syria affect China?

For China, Assad's fall effectively represents the loss of a diplomatic partner, William Matthews, senior fellow for the Asia-Pacific program at London-based think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.

China's overall approach to the region has been one of pragmatic engagement, Matthews added.

He added that while the HTS is unlikely to be willing to work with China as a close partner, China will most likely seek to maintain its ties with the new government, including opportunities for cooperation.

Matthews explained that China's engagement with the Taliban in Afghanistan could provide a potential comparison, but that it is too early to say definitively.

On January 30 this year, Xi's government was the first to officially recognize a Taliban diplomat since the group took power in 2021. Although no country officially recognizes the Taliban-led government, Beijing has acknowledged Bilal Karimi, a former Taliban spokesperson, as official envoy. in China. In 2023, many Chinese companies have signed trade agreements with the Taliban government.

The fact that China remains on good terms with the Taliban, said Andrew Leung, an international and independent China strategist, suggests that HTS is unlikely to pose a critical problem for China. Leung, who has held many high-level government positions in Hong Kong, added: Indeed, China's infrastructure-building capabilities are likely to be sought after in the war-torn Middle East.

However, it is unclear how China will respond to this investment demand.

Given that China has taken a more cautious approach to overseas investment in recent years, although it may make further investments in Syria, these will likely be calibrated according to risk of instability and potential opportunities for increased influence in the long term, Matthews. said.

He added that the fall of Al-Assad poses a challenge for China, as it has growing interests in the Middle East region as an economic and development partner, and increasingly in areas such as technology and defense.

In March 2023, China negotiated diplomatic détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The agreement came as a surprise, after years of simmering tensions and a formal severing of ties between the two countries in 2016.

In July this year, Beijing hosted rival Palestinian groups Hamas and Fatah, alongside 12 smaller Palestinian groups. After three days of intensive negotiations, the groups signed a national unity agreement aimed at maintaining Palestinian control over Gaza after the end of Israel's war against the enclave.

According to Matthews, China's main setback is the risk that Assad's overthrow poses to regional stability, including the spread of conflict into neighboring countries.