Exposing China's Four Red Lines and Warning to Trump

Following Chinese leader Xi Jinping's latest meeting with President Joe Biden, which took place in November on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Peru, Beijing released a summary of the conversation that delineated four lines red for relations between the United States and China. THE statement “The Taiwan issue, democracy and human rights, China's path and system, and China's right to development are four red lines for China. They should not be disputed.

The intended audience for this message was not the current President of the United States but rather his successor. With these four red lines, China seeks to set the terms of bilateral relations between the United States and China for the next four years and to warn President-elect Donald Trump and his national security team not to pursue certain policies. Furthermore, while China likely understands that the United States will not respect these red lines, stating them publicly gives Beijing the opportunity to shift the blame for increased tensions to Washington by arguing that its warnings were not heeded. heard and therefore has no choice but to respond with countermeasures.

Although the four red lines may at first glance seem vague or strange, upon closer inspection their meaning is clear and it is worth analyzing them to discern China's priorities and the areas it values ​​most. great importance.

It's all about Taiwan

Unsurprisingly, Taiwan, that Beijing often described as the core of China's fundamental interests, is mentioned first, emphasizing that it will remain the most sensitive issue in the bilateral relationship.

Under the first Trump administration, relations between the United States and Taiwan deepened. Among other measures, the Trump administration has strengthened security cooperation with Taiwan and increased arms sales to Taiwan, sent high-level officials to Taipei (including Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar), declassified the Six insurancesadjusted the language of the US One China Policy to place the Taiwan Relations Act before the three US-China joint communiqués, and survey self-imposed restrictions that regulated contact between U.S. and Taiwanese officials.

The Biden administration continued on this path by launching the US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Commercefurther strengthening security cooperation by extending presidential withdrawal authority and foreign military financing to Taiwan, and inviting Taiwan to participate in the Administration's Democracy Summit. Additionally, President Biden has stated four times that the United States will defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression, although members of his administration have attempted to walk back those comments.

China wants to put an end to all this, believing that if Taiwan is isolated and uncertain of American support, it will be more willing to negotiate. At the very least, he wants to ensure that the United States does not grant diplomatic recognition to Taiwan or support its membership in the United Nations, steps that Mike Pompeo, who served as Trump's secretary of state during his first term, and Nikki Haley, who was his ambassador to the UN, to have recommended. China also wants the United States to use its influence to pressure Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te to take a more accommodating stance on cross-Strait issues.

Who defines democracy?

China's second red line, which covers democracy and human rights, might seem odd to the casual observer that the leader of a one-party dictatorship could single out. Its inclusion, however, serves to highlight how China seeks to redefine these terms to make them compatible with the authoritarian rule of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This is an example of the CCP's pursuit of discourse power, or the ability to frame issues and establish narratives, which it believes the United States and the West have monopolized for its own sake. detriment.

Chinese leaders say the country is not only a democracy, but is actually more democratic than the United States. According to this narrative, Western democracies give citizens the right to elect their leaders, but once elections are over, voters are denied the opportunity to make their voices heard, while politicians are captured and work for vested interests. individuals. China, on the other hand, is a people's democracy with a comprehensive process, a concept introduced by Xi and it describes a system in which people do not vote but somehow exert greater control over the country's leaders. XI argued that this is democracy in its broadest, most authentic and most effective form.

In another attempt to redefine terms, human rights for Beijing do not refer to universal values ​​such as freedom of expression or the right to life and liberty. Instead, states determine rights and the Chinese government should be evaluated based on its ability to deliver economic development. According to an article published by the Information Office of the State Council of China declaredThe right to subsistence and development are the main fundamental human rights. Poverty is the greatest obstacle to the realization of human rights. By this logic, the CCP is a champion of human rights because it has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.

Xi's focus on democracy and human rights expresses both his confidence that his efforts to redefine these terms have been successful and his concern that the United States will continue to do pressure on China over human rights violations in Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong.

Do not question the path that has been chosen

The CCP defines the Chinese path and system as socialism with Chinese characteristics, pursued under the unquestioned leadership of the party. This red line centers on the issue of the legitimacy and security of the regime and is an attempt to warn the new Trump administration not to attempt to separate the CCP from the Chinese people, not to criticize or question the system Chinese politics, or seeking to change the regime.

There are many examples that would give Xi plenty of reason to worry. In 2020, for example, Pompeo, then Secretary of State, gave a high-profile speech at the Nixon Library, where he arguedWe must also engage and empower the Chinese people, a dynamic and freedom-loving people, completely distinct from the Chinese Communist Party. He continued: Communists almost always lie. The biggest lie they tell is thinking they speak for 1.4 billion people who are being watched, oppressed and afraid to speak out.

Matt Pottinger, Trump's former deputy national security adviser, and Mike Gallagher, former congressman and chairman of the House Select Committee on U.S.-CCP Strategic Competition, recently wrote an influential essay calling on United States to adopt a strategy which seeks to win competition with China by demonstrating to the Chinese people that they can explore new models of development and governance that do not rely on domestic repression and compulsive hostility abroad. The authors continue: Washington should not fear the end state desired by a growing number of Chinese: a China capable of charting its own course without communist dictatorship.

Trump's new national security adviser, Mike Waltz, has declaredTo be clear, we are dealing with the Chinese Communist Party, not the Chinese people.

Beijing is trying to make the new Trump administration understand that it should refrain from repeating such lines.

When the chips are gone

The fourth and final red line, the right to development, likely centers on China's demand that the United States abandon its export controls and tariffs and stop pursuing a risk reduction strategy. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi elaborated on this pointing the finger at US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in April 2024, explaining that the Chinese people's right to development is inalienable. The United States should implement its declaration that it does not seek to contain China's economic development, does not seek to disassociate itself from China, and is not The goal is to stop scientific and technological progress of China. He should stop spreading the false narrative of overcapacity in China, revoke illegal sanctions against Chinese companies, and stop imposing 301 tariffs that violate WTO rules.

China's biggest concern is likely to be U.S. controls on technology-related exports, particularly those targeting semiconductors and equipment needed to make the most advanced chips. In October 2022, the Biden administration expanded the Trump administration's export controls, and it has since strengthened those controls, most recently in December 2024.

China has struggled to overcome these restrictions, putting it at a disadvantage in developing artificial intelligence capabilities. China is also concerned about threats of 60% tariffs imposed by Trump on Chinese exports and the possibility that the United States and its allies will coordinate their response to Chinese overcapacity in sectors such as electric vehicles.

Red lines for what?

The Trump administration is unlikely to respect any of these four red lines. Instead, it is far more likely that U.S. security cooperation with Taiwan will continue apace, that export controls will be tightened, that additional tariffs will be introduced, and that U.S. officials will continue to highlight human rights violations in China. China knows all this, which raises the question of what it is trying to accomplish by introducing red lines that will almost certainly be violated. Beijing is likely trying to signal that U.S. pressure on these fronts will elicit a tough response, while also establishing a written document it can use to blame Washington for the heightened tensions. Finally, even if these red lines are neither respected nor applied, they open a window on Beijing's priorities, concerns and sensitivities.