Russia and Turkey struggle to realign their strategy for post-Assad Syria

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime to the rebel coalition forces of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA) led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani poses new challenges to this country in difficulty. .

With Assad's departure, the conflict has entered an uncertain phase with key players like Russia and Turkey deeply embedded in the region's geopolitics.

Syria's geopolitical positioning and alliances have always underlined its strategic importance. It is home to critical Russian military installations, including the Tartus Naval Facility and Khmeimim Air Base. These bases have been crucial to Russia's assertiveness in the Middle East, also serving as logistics hubs for operations in North Africa and the Sahel.

Meanwhile, Turkey's concerns revolve around border security, the return of millions of Syrian refugees and containing threats from groups like the People's Defense Units (YPG), linked to the Workers' Party. Kurdistan (PKK).

Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has advocated a resolution to the Syrian crisis based on dialogue. However, distrust between Erdogan and Assad has thwarted the efforts, with Assad accusing Turkey of supporting rebel factions and providing refuge for dissidents.

The collapse of the Assad regime prompted Turkey to realign its strategy, including reopening the Yayladagi border crossing to facilitate the safe return of Syrian migrants.

“Our calls to resolve the Syrian conflict through dialogue were arrogantly rejected by the former regime. The hand extended by our country was not appreciated and its significance was not understood. Bashar al-Assad fled, leaving behind a Syria where nearly a million people were killed, 12 million people were forced to leave and many cities were reduced to ruins.

Although it supports some rebel factions, Turkey has warned that groups like ISIS and the YPG are taking advantage of the transition phase. Ankara emphasizes the importance of an inclusive governing body and the preservation of state institutions.

“We must be vigilant during this transition period. We are in communication with the groups to ensure that terrorist organizations, including Daesh and the PKK, do not take advantage of the situation.

Turkey is determined to continue the fight against terrorism. All minorities, non-Muslims, Christians, non-Arabs, Kurds, must be treated equally. Any possible inventory of chemical weapons or related material must be secured. The new governing body should include all parties. Opposition groups should be united now. State institutions must be preserved and function properly. »

Russia, a staunch ally of the Assad regime, played a decisive role in maintaining it during the civil war, often in collaboration with Iran and Hezbollah. With the fall of Assad, Russia faces the challenge of maintaining its strategic hold in Syria, particularly its military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim, amid international sanctions and a protracted war in Ukraine. Reports suggest that Russian military ships have temporarily left Tartus, reflecting wider pressure on its resources.

As Moscow faces this new reality, it must decide whether to align with or oppose Turkey and other regional players. The possibility of an escalation of factional and sectarian conflict looms, which could further destabilize the region.

The evolving situation in Syria raises questions: will Russia and Turkey join forces to stabilize the region, or will their respective interests increase tensions? The broader implications extend beyond Syria and could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.