Boris Johnson's allies dream of a Trump-style return

For Boris Johnson's allies, there is an alternative history of the last two and a half years of British politics in which he was not ousted from power in July 2022.

In this parallel reality, Johnson presented a budget less worrying for the markets, but still favorable to growth, in the autumn of the same year and, above all, successfully defended his conservative majority in the 2024 elections.

No one will ever know if this counterfactual timeline would have actually played out this way. But it's an issue that continues to dog a group of his political allies who hope Johnson might at some point return to the Westminster frontline to save the Conservative Party from potential another electoral defeat or, more disastrously, of an overtaking by the Reformed as the first party. leading force of the British right.

It is the growing success of Nigel Farages' party since the election campaign, which threatens to divide the right, as well as the astonishing return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States, which makes Johnson's allies miss their former leader .

But Johnson's friends say that, unlike the US presidential system, it is too difficult for him to stage a similar comeback, which would involve him being elected MP in a by-election, waiting for a run-in the leadership of the Conservatives and that he wins support. of a sufficient number of deputies who did not turn against him in 2022.

And his friends also wondered if he really wanted to come back.

Several of Johnson's most loyal ministerial allies have recently spoken publicly and enthusiastically about the prospect of his return before the next election, potentially in a by-election in a (relatively) safe Conservative seat.

Jacob Rees-Mogg told the Sun Sunday: I haven't talked to him about this, but he must look at Donald Trump and think: Look, Donald can do this, he's 78 years old. I just turned 60 and I still have a lot of life left in me.

His former colleague, Brendan Clarke-Smith, told the Sunday Express: He is one of the great kings of the return of politics. Why not?

And Nadine Dorries told the same newspaper: “Red lights are flashing on the road, telling us that, week after week, Nigel Farage is growing on the political scene.

I would say the only reason this is happening is because Boris Johnson has left the political scene. This facilitates its growth, both in popularity and alternative. Although Dorries added: Of course I want to see it [Johnson] I make no apologies for that. The problem is: does he want it?

And that's the $1 million (790,000) question (after dinner speaking fees). In the first six months after leaving office in September 2022, Johnson earned 5 million from his speeches and other outside income, and he remains in high demand on the circuit, meaning that figure is now expected to be well over 10 million.

He received an advance of 510,000 for the writing of his memoirs, Unchainedand reportedly earns a six-figure annual sum to write a weekly column in the Daily Mail.

This income allowed Johnson and his wife Carrie to purchase a €3.8 million mansion in Oxfordshire in March 2023, where they live with their three young children, Dilyn the dog and a brood of animals farmyard.

On her Instagram account, Ms Johnson paints an idyllic picture of country life and recently suggested the couple build an outdoor sauna in their garden.

With the former Prime Minister living in domestic bliss and earning far more than he could have as an MP, and the Conservative Party reduced to a handful of 121 MPs after the July election, why would- will he return to the fray?

In his memoir, Johnson claimed he did not know whether he would run for MP again. But he teased readers a bit, in classic Johnson style, by saying: I used to pretend that my chances of becoming Prime Minister were about the same as if I were reincarnated as an olive or decapitated by a Frisbee.

The more time I spend away from Westminster, the more firmly I believe that you should only get involved if you truly believe you can be of use.

A spokesperson for Johnson declined to say whether he was interested in a return, while a source close to him said he was very busy promoting Unchainedwhile continuing to write and advocate for causes such as Ukraine.

But another friend said: My honest view, after seeing what happened with Trump and thinking about it, is that if you had a presidential system or a head of government elected for a fixed term, then he [a comeback] would be a very real possibility.

Many people lack what he provided. [But] I think he is very aware of the reality: you can only become Prime Minister by being leader of a party in our system. The party system has proven brutal across the board in recent years, and not just for conservatives.

It's hard. I don't think he has the appetite for some kind of futile, let alone humiliating, comeback attempt.

It is this futility which is the essential thing. It is very very realistic.

For Johnson's critics within the Conservative Party, there were good reasons for his downfall, namely that many of his MPs turned against him for partisan and sordid reasons.

Then again, 75 Conservative MPs stood down at the election, and 26 of the current 121 MPs are newly elected, suggesting that there might have been enough churn to consider Johnson, who after all, won the election under a new day.

However, these deputies have just elected a new leader: Kemi Badenoch. And even Johnson's most ardent political fans think she should be given a chance to prove herself.

The former Prime Minister himself said THE Spectator in November, Badenoch had shown impatience and decided to make the Conservatives eligible again, and congratulated her on her good start.

A friend said Johnson admired Badenoch and added that his election was a sign that the party was, as he sincerely believes, meritocratic.

They added: The progressive left talks about ethnic minorities and gay rights, but its leaders are only privileged, heterosexual white men.

I think most people would forgive him for thinking that there is no one in politics right now, apart from Farage, who evokes Boris's charisma.

If he hadn't been knocked down, if he had just spent the summer [of 2022]he would have gotten a growth budget that wasn't all your Christmases at once like Liz Truss did, but a serious plan to start growing.

He reportedly had a plan to help people overcome the cost of living.

There is no vision [with the current Government]. There is no strategy, there is no ambition.

Boris is convinced that Britain is the best place on earth. I don't think Keir Starmer thinks that.

Thanks to the weakening of the Conservative Party, the Farages reformers are building on the already resounding success of their results in July's general election, when they won 14 percent of the vote from an almost standing start.

The latest polls suggest Reform now averages 21 per cent, trailing the Conservatives on 26 per cent and Labour, who have also fallen to 26 per cent since election day.

This rise coincided with a number of defections from Conservatives to Reform, raising the question: Would Johnson ever jump ship to a party that would undoubtedly welcome him with open arms?

A friend of Johnson dismissed the idea, saying: Boris is a Tory through and through. He is a liberal capitalist. He favored migration from the Commonwealth, but not uncontrolled migration.

He is not a reformist. I would be surprised and disappointed [if he joined Reform].