Politics
Chinese amphibious warfare: Taiwan targeted, swirling scenarios
Andrew S. Erickson, Chinese amphibious warfare: Taiwan targeted, swirling scenarios, The diplomatDecember 14, 2024.
Part two of a two-part series detailing China's amphibious warfare and its implications for Taiwan.
As China deploys the largest number of warships around Taiwan in its largest maritime operation in three decades, scrutiny of potential military operations being considered by Xi Jinping is long overdue. This second part of a two-part seriesbased on the new conference volume edited by the Naval War Colleges China Maritime Studies Institutes, Chinese amphibious warfare: prospects for a cross-strait invasiondistills the book's key findings regarding scenario factors and policy recommendations, and highlights areas of ongoing research.
A comprehensive and clear-cut assessment of the military balance between the two sides is beyond the scope of our unclassified project. Instead, we focused on amphibious-related developments in China and identified key dynamics and trends. Part Four, Scenario Factors, therefore considers specific elements essential to the success of an invasion of Taiwan. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is focused on addressing all relevant variables, but it still faces considerable challenges and gaps even as it builds and deploys forces at an unprecedented pace in the 'post-war.
A full-scale amphibious invasion is one of the most complex and difficult military operations of all. This is extremely difficult to achieve. Success depends on comprehensive planning, complex command and control architectures, mass employment of forces, and precise synchronization. It can be thwarted by factors ranging from bad weather to enemy countermeasures to unforeseen events. There is no better recognition of these inherent uncertainties than the In case of failure message written by American General Dwight D. Eisenhower on June 5, 1944, the day before the monumental success of the D-Day invasion.
As Lieutenant General Charles Hooper, former American defense attaché in Beijing, points out in his foreword to our volume, the last major amphibious landing against opposition was the American assault on Inchon, South Korea, in 1950 .Beijing is now planning one of the most ambitious amphibious operations in history. , including the largest mobilization of civilian ships ever, far surpassing the Dunkirk evacuation in number of ships and the Falklands War in tonnage. China lacks experience in war conditions on this scale. Its airborne forces, for example, have historically played a regime-preserving role, as evidenced by the suppression of the 1967 Wuhan uprising during the Cultural Revolution and the 1989 Tiananmen massacre. Under various scenarios, Beijing may have to send forces in a one-way mission. … … …
This second part of a two-part series offered broader implications from the penultimate and conclusion of Chinese amphibious warfareas well as related areas of ongoing research. The first part summarizes the main conclusions of these CMSI volumes the preceding sections: China's amphibious history and doctrine, its current joint force, and its supporting enablers.
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