Chinese spy cozying up to Prince Andrew is part of a much more dangerous game

Xi Jinping likes princes. The Chinese leader is himself one. He came to power through his lineage and cunning as the princely son of an old revolutionary.

But although he shares an air of entitlement that befits any monarch, there was no chemistry between Xi and the House of Windsor when he stayed at Buckingham Palace as a guest of the late queen.

Chinese relations with foreign figures are not based on sentiment but on utility. Xi likes his princes, whether merchants or minor royals, to be vain, greedy or foolish. Preferably all three. Perhaps we can think of examples.

It is therefore tempting to dismiss the latest episode involving Prince Andrew and a mysterious alleged Chinese agent as nonsense. Likewise, the actions of Xi's admirers in Britain, such as the activities of the 48 Club, a grouping of business types, are often an invitation to satire.

I cannot read the account of these antics without thinking of the reception given to the Emperor of China in Anthony Trollope's novel of 19th-century greed and madness, The way we live now. Invited by the great crook of the novel, Auguste Melmotte, the emperor sits, impenetrable and mute, above a crowd of financiers and speculators who have come to know nothing about China, but in the expectation of an advantage . Of course, this all ends disadvantageously for them. It ends worse for Melmotte, a crook who bought his seat in Parliament, who poisons himself.

But irony isn't enough when it comes to today's influence peddlers. Xi and the Communist Party are not interested in selling a few more pieces of questionable telecommunications equipment or taking a few million from a public offering to fund the education of their privileged children. They are way beyond all that.

The best way to understand what the Chinese state is up to is to understand that the goal of its policy is not poison but anesthesia. The party's United Front Work Department honed its skills at deception in the 1940s when it persuaded a large portion of China's liberals and intellectuals that it would do them no harm.

While Xi Jinping's father fought in the Red Army that marched on Beijing, his united front comrades undermined the will of their adversaries, causing rival armies to eventually collapse and flee. No-hit victory is the greatest reward in traditional Chinese military strategy.

What does this mean today? This means that China is diligently preparing the ground, not to strike the UK, but to ensure its passivity in case it goes to war with the US.

This is the task of Beijing's army of bankers, traders, academics, officials and think tanks: to deliver a gently persuasive message via their fellow travelers that China is not a threat, seeking only a fairer world order and simply fight for their rights. Xi Jinping and his friend Vladimir Putin agree on changes not seen in a hundred years.

Xi is rumored to have declined Donald Trump's invitation to attend the president-elect's inauguration next month (a stroke of genius on Trump's part, admittedly). His presence would have eased tensions in relations between the two giant powers. But this could only be a truce.

There are dark thinkers in Beijing planning, as planners must, for the day when shots are fired into the seas off China. Let's imagine this.

A reckless Chinese destroyer captain shines his fire control radar on an American warship for a minute too long (I've heard a real scenario like this from the Japanese government). The rules of engagement kick in, the missiles fly, and the next moment the skies are filled with warplanes.

All of this would happen so quickly that the Americans spent hours persuading the Chinese to agree to instant communications between their armies. The Chinese are timid about this because uncertainty is a principle of war for them.

Make no mistake; if the United States is at war with China in the morning, Britain is involved in the afternoon. There would be instant demands for intelligence sharing, use of the controversial Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, facilities in Cyprus and, ultimately, stockpiles in East Anglia.

This country could not say no but it could hesitate for a fatal moment. This is exactly the moment of hesitation on which the Chinese state will spend unlimited intelligence resources and influence invested in the future to make the Americas' allies think twice. And if the unthinkable happens, Europeans and Asians will look to us as first responders for their signal.

This is why a Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer who collectively know little about China might turn to Trollope to remind him of Britain's weaknesses. -even. They cannot let Xi Jinping doubt their commitments.

Princes and their follies have a habit of ending badly; the government's supreme task is to ensure that this does not happen this time.

Michael Sheridan, long-time foreign correspondent and diplomatic editor of The Independent, is the author of The Red Emperor published by Headline Press at 25