Turkish fingers in the “new” Syria

“We have no territorial claims in Syria. We just want to make sure people get their land back. We marched into Syria to end the regime of the tyrant Assad.”

It is with these words that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan justified the military intervention in Syria in 2016.

However, behind the noble words of the Turkish president lie interests. From the first day of the war in Syria, Ankara supported the armed opposition and resolutely insisted on the overthrow of dictator Bashar al-Assad.

Five years later, Turkey established a permanent military presence in the Syrian rebel stronghold of Idlib.

Today, Turkey is strategically seen as the biggest winner in Syria, while Russia and Iran are the biggest losers: Moscow was the Assad regime's most important ally and Tehran supported it by sending paramilitary forces.

“Compared to the situation two weeks ago, we can now say that Turkey has definitely won in Syria,” said Zaur Gasimov, an expert on Turkish-Russian relations at the German-Turkish University in Istanbul.

According to him, Ankara will cooperate closely with the future Syrian government. “Turkey will be heavily involved in reconstruction and will remain a major investor in war-torn Syria.”

Gasimov believes that Turkey will benefit economically from Syria's reconstruction, particularly through the involvement of its construction companies.

Political analyst Berk Esen of Istanbul's Sabanci University says: “Although Turkey's policy towards Syria has long been considered a failure, Erdogan always said that Assad would one day fall. Now they will get points policies on this subject.

Indirect support?

“Turkey played a key role during the last offensive. In the new Syria, Ankara will use it to expand its sphere of influence,” Berk Esen is convinced.

Turkey supports the Syrian National Army (SNA) and controls large parts of northern Syria. It has also developed some links with the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), although Ankara denies any involvement in their offensive.

Although Turkey does not officially support the HT – and even considers it a terrorist organization – it has aided some paramilitary forces in northern Syria, which participated in the offensive.

“It is legitimate to assume that Turkey indirectly supports the HT militarily,” says Andre Bank, a Middle East expert from the GIGA Institute in Hamburg.

“HT has recently acquired new weapons, including drones and missile systems. Presumably this comes from Türkiye,” adds Bank.

His colleague Simon Mabon, from Lancaster University, is more cautious: it is a non-transparent subject. “We don't know exactly to what extent Turkey actually supported this offensive,” says Mabon.

NATO member Turkey has good relations with Russia and Iran, which regularly irritates Western allies.

However, Gassimov does not expect a breakdown in relations between Moscow and Ankara due to recent events. He predicts that bilateral relations will deepen further: “The fall of Assad makes Turkey even more important for Russia.”

The future of the Kurds?

Turkey's official objective in northern Syria is to prevent the creation of a Kurdish territorial unit. Ankara fears that a Kurdish state could emerge in the region.

Currently, Turkish-backed forces are operating against Kurdish paramilitaries and in recent days have captured areas of northeastern Syria, including the town of Manbij.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control parts of northern Syria, are considered the Syrian branch of the PKK – the Kurdistan Workers' Party. Since 1984, Turkey has been in conflict with the PKK, classified as a terrorist organization within the EU.

“In the future, we could see an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria, like that of Iraq.” The only difference is that it is easier to defend the territories located in the mountainous north of Iraq. In parts of Syria located in the plains, it could be more difficult,” Berk Esen said.

Furthermore, it remains unclear how the HT will behave towards Kurds and other minorities such as Christians.

Return of refugees?

Turkey has a border of around 900 kilometers with Syria and has hosted around three million Syrian refugees. This makes it the country with the most Syrian refugees in the world.

Although Erdogan's government welcomed large numbers of Syrians after the outbreak of the civil war, it is now under enormous pressure as aversion to refugees grows in an economically battered Turkey.

“We attach great importance to the territorial integrity of Syria,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said last week. “Millions of Syrians, who had to leave their homes, can now return.”

In Türkiye, there is a growing expectation that this will happen as quickly as possible. President Erdogan spoke of opening the Jajladag border crossing, near Antakya, with Syria so that refugees could return “safely and voluntarily”.

News