Farage soars, Starmer struggles. Can Kemi Badenoch survive?

A good sailor knows that tides are more important than waves. Waves require attention and can be noisy. In the worst cases, they destroy cliffs and buildings. But the waves come and go, one moment foamy, the next pond calm. Tides are inevitable, often imperceptible.

As the end of 2024 approaches, there is no shortage of waves (immigrationthe culture wars, whether Love in fact is the best or worst Christmas movie of all time).

But there are only three tides. Reform Party Nigel Farages has momentum. The tide of work risks dying out but could be reversed. Conservatives are quiet, but not for the reasons most people think.

Three weeks ago, the Reform Party reached 100,000 members and set a goal of winning hundreds of city council seats in next May's local elections. This summer, talk of Farage having a chance of attacking Number 10 would have seemed fanciful. Such an outcome remains improbable, but it is no longer impossible.

The defection of Tim Montgomerieformer adviser to Boris Johnson and once considered the most important Conservative not in the Cabinet, is significant. Montgomerie is a thinker in a party that lacks one.

The announcement that real estate multi-millionaire Nick Candy is going become the party treasurer this indicates that more money will flow into the Reform coffers. He has already pledged more than a million and is in negotiations with Elon Musk.

For Labor there is only one chance to succeed in the economy. If growth does not return in 2025, the multiplier effects on debt (rising) and tax revenues (decreasing) will be toxic. The government will limp along until the end of a single term, then be kicked out.

Keir Starmer knows the government's current position is unsustainable, with last week's stagnant growth figures only adding to the gloom. He is working to change course, attacking the civil service for being in a lukewarm bath of managed decline, promising 1.5 million new homes and the resurrection of a Blairite favourite: anti-social behavior orders. Public service reform, more housing and tackling crime are Labour's version of a populist playbook.

Wes Streeting, attacking Ed Miliband over Syria on Question timewill be the poster child for the new story, joking about The spectatorThe Parliamentarian of the Year recognizes that he was the most conservative person in the room. Even Farage laughed.
Alongside Streeting, Rachel Reeves, Morgan McSweeney, Chief of Staff No. 10, and Pat McFadden, the Blairite Cabinet enforcer, make up the head table. Angela Rayner, who is supposed to be in charge of planning reform, was conspicuous by her absence last week, limiting herself to walking behind the Prime Minister as he visited a Cambridgeshire housing estate.

Labour, Conservatives and Reform are now engaged in a three-way battle for public support. Reform is ahead of Labor in some polls and has a leader who demands attention every time he opens his mouth.

Starmer has the levers of the state's communications services and the multimillion-pound budget that constantly churns out news of the real or imagined achievements of his Labor government. Tenure has its advantages.

So, between the laser-style rock of Farages and the emotions of the rebel alliance and the hell of the state-sponsored communication machines, Kemi Badenoch faces pressure.

Some say, a month after her election as party leader, that she is already flirting with failure and that she must somehow make more noise, tackling the problems with aggressive sentences.

However, creating waves is not the path to government for the official opposition. Yes, it tickles your primary vote, excites social media and can make headlines (lunch is for wimps). But Badenoch is not the insurgent. This territory belongs to Farage and why support a tribute band when you can have the real thing?

Badenoch will need three qualities to succeed: patience, deep political work and the ability to speak across political divides, not create them.

Kemi should take the same approach as Margaret Thatcher, one of her allies told me. It took four years in opposition, and in fact Kemi is further ahead than Margaret at the same stage.

Thatcher did not have a Reform Party chasing her on the right. But it had a much more solid political and economic consensus, leaning strongly to the left, and a party much more ideologically divided between Wets and Dries. Each era brings its own unique challenges. Overcoming them is a matter of strategy (tides) and not tactics (waves).

Badenoch's strategy is becoming clearer and has many advantages. His speech at the International Union of Democracy Forum in Washington presented a coherent set of approaches rooted in free markets, a smaller state and the rule of law.

Badenoch argued that left-wing politics had been embedded in society, not by traditional socialist methods of controlling the means of production, but by stealth state overreach, taxes and borrowing, and the orthodoxy of net zero.

I know what freedom looks like, she told her audience, which included Stephen Harper, Canada's former conservative prime minister, who led the rebirth of the right after its almost complete elimination in the 1990s. 1990.

I know the values ​​that can make citizens richer and happier and how, without them, they become engines of misery and despair. Classic liberal values, not left-wing liberalism but the classic liberalism of free market, free speech, free enterprise, freedom of religion, presumption of innocence, institutions of trust in the framework of the rule of law and equality before the law, no matter who you are. or where you come from.

Vitally, we also gained insight into the intellectual underpinnings of Badenoch's approach, an essential element for anyone wanting to present a substantive speech to the public and one on which both Starmer and Farage are weak.

Thatcher had Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman, her own think tank, the Center for Policy Studies, and an outsider, Sir Keith Joseph. All of these elements were essential to the success of his mandate, both in opposition and in government.

Tony Blair had Anthony Giddens (architect of the Third Way), Philip Gould (who wrote the founding speech aimed at the ambitious working and middle classes), Jonathan Powell (who made the government work) and Sir Michael Barber (responsible for the legendary project number 10). Unit). Powell and Barber are back in #10.

Badenoch spoke of Thomas Sowell, America's leading free-market economist, who counts Friedman among his mentors. His allies say the conservative leader can quote major Sowell speeches from memory.

Badenoch must keep his cool and choose his battles wisely. There is a Conservative Britain and it is likely to still be in the majority. He will need to take a sophisticated approach to ensure that he actually votes for the Conservative Party and for her.