Central Asia, possible winner of the regional reshuffle around Syria

Since the Syrian rebel offensive that toppled President Bashar Assad this month, there has been talk of who is up and who is down. Central Asia could end up winning on the geopolitical scoreboard, according to one theory.

For Syrians, the future depends on whether the country can stabilize under a new government or whether it heads toward new conflict. But here is the international fallout so far:

Russia, Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah, Assad's main backers during the years of civil war, have lost power and influence in the region. Turkey, which has supported some rebel groups, has more influence in Syria, where it opposes Syrian Kurdish forces. Israel has benefited because its enemy Hezbollah has lost a supply route through Syria to Iran, although it says it is striking Syrian military sites because threats remain.

There could be economic gains for Central Asia, a far cry from the maneuvers on the ground in Syria. Some analysts believe an ascendant Türkiye will call in some favors from Russia, which, along with Iran, is on the decline. What Turkey and its Central Asian trading partners really want is the opening of a land route, the so-called Zanzegur Corridor, in the South Caucasus, and Russia can possibly help to that this comes true.

The 43 kilometer corridor, which should make land trade between East Asia and Europe more efficient, would connect Azerbaijan to its enclave of Nakhichevan, passing through Armenia before joining Turkey and the European markets beyond. The transport link is supposed to open under a 2020 ceasefire deal following Azerbaijan's military success against Armenia, with Russia as security guarantor. But Zanzegur remains controversial due to Armenian concerns over sovereignty and a final peace deal has not yet been signed.

According to the theory, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could push Russian President Vladimir Putin to provide aid to Zanzegur in exchange for ostensibly helping Russia evacuate its troops from Syria, and possibly helping Moscow to tie relations with the new Syrian leaders.

What will Turkey demand from Russia? Perhaps lighter conditions for the supply of key energy resources now threatened by US sanctions, economist Timothy Ash wrote in a statement. analysis. A Russian agreement perhaps also on access for Azeris and Turks to Nakhichevan [through] the Zangezur corridor and towards Central Asia? Putin now owes Erdogan. He will collect.

Ahmad Vakhshiteh, a lecturer at RUDN University in Moscow, made a similar argument, saying in a interview with German media outlet DW, Turkey could use Syria's influence to advance broader geopolitical goals such as the Zanzegur Corridor.

As part of the 2020 ceasefire agreementRussian border guards would control transport on the corridor, the opening of which could also benefit Russian trade relations. But Russian influence has waned as Armenia has all but withdrawn from a Russian-led regional security pact and increasingly seeks Western partnerships. There have also been discussions about the possibility of bypassing Armenia and building an adjacent land corridor through Iranian territory, although Iran's commercial and security interests are important factors.

Yet Erdogan insisted that a land route would have cultural implications as a link to Turkic ethnic groups in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Furthermore, as part of his intense Syrian diplomacy, the Turkish president spoke by telephone with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Erdogan's office. said SATURDAY. Earlier this year, Erdogan told reporters that the Zanzegur corridor was of great importance to Aliyev and that Azerbaijan would be very relieved as soon as the rail system was put into operation. according to the Turkish presidency.

Currently, Turkey and Azerbaijan are connected by a land route through Georgia. The Zanzegur route, however, is the shortest land route between Asia and Europe and would offer great prospects for the development of trans-Caspian transport, which involves almost all of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, Nargiza Umarova wrote for the Caspian Policy Center.

The Zangezur Corridor is more than just a shortcut: it is a game-changer for Central Asia, providing unprecedented economic integration and connectivity between Asia and Europe, Regional Director Raissa Muhutdinova said last month. from Global Civil Initiatives, an NGO based in Kyrgyzstan. a publication on LinkedIn.

For the five Central Asian countries, this route could redefine their geoeconomic landscape by facilitating faster and cheaper access to European markets, thereby allowing these countries to capitalize on their strategic positions like never before, Muhutdinova said, referring to to the five post-Soviet states of Central Asia. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.