China's new Silk Road could pass through Syria, without passing through Russia

Sino-Russian relations have undergone subtle changes following Hezbollah's defeat by Israeli operations in Lebanon in September and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's victory in the United States in early November.

The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, a powerful ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, on December 8 has also widened the difference in geopolitical interests between China and Russia, according to some Chinese commentators.

Due to all these incidents, Dmitry Medvedev, chairman of the United Russia party and vice-chairman of the Russian Security Council, visited Beijing on December 12.

Xinhua News Agency said Medvedev met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and handed him a letter signed by Putin. It said the letter expressed Putin's joy at visiting China again on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China and the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and China. .

However, Chinese experts said people should pay attention to Medvedev's latest meeting with Liu Jianchao, a senior Chinese diplomat and current head of the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

During their meeting, Medvedev told Liu that “Russia is ready to resume negotiations with Ukraine if kyiv understands today's realities and takes into consideration the suggestions made by Putin.”

Some observers said Medvedev's speech means that Putin is reluctant to enter into ceasefire negotiations with kyiv, while Beijing is only concerned with whether it can maintain trade relations with Europe in the Trump 2.0 era.

A Hebei-based writer called Bo Ge said In an article published on December 12, Medvedev's remarks showed that Moscow wanted to maintain its independence and sought to achieve effective interaction on particular topics of Russian-Chinese relations.

Although China and Russia have cooperated on some energy and counterterrorism issues, the two sides' strategic interests are very different on geopolitical issues related to Europe's security and Middle East issues, he said. Medvedev's latest trip to Beijing failed to break the deep ice between China and Russia.

A Henan columnist using the pseudonym A Bookseller in the Ocean published a article with the title China and Russia cannot form an alliance; Medvedev made a decision on December 12.

According to him, the Liu-Medvedev meeting focused on the Syrian and Ukrainian issues. He believes that the new Syrian government's lack of full control over the country could allow terrorism to flourish and possibly harm China's interests in the Middle East region.

The author argues that Putin's letter could have requested increased strategic cooperation between China and Russia in order to increase Moscow's bargaining power on the Kursk battlefields before possible ceasefire negotiations. The fire is not initiated by US President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office in the white region. Home on January 20 next year.

It reiterates Beijing's position that China and Russia should not form an alliance.

Southern Silk Road

Some Chinese commentators said Beijing would closely monitor the political situation in Syria, but would only do so for its own good, instead of helping Russia.

Some believe that the collapse of the Assad regime would harm China's interests, but in reality, this incident represents a big opportunity for China, according to a Hong Kong-based columnist. writing in an article. China's interests will only be harmed if Syria becomes chaotic.

It claims former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad failed in his efforts to boost the local economy and eliminate anti-government forces and ISIS for many years, preventing China from completing its Silk Road from the South to connect to Europe via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Iran. , Iraq and Syria.

He points out that China's total direct investment in Syria amounted to only $13.24 million at the end of 2022, far below the figure of $300 billion mentioned by netizens.

By offering humanitarian aid, China can establish good relations with the new Syrian government, he said. China and Syria can cooperate economically while China can contribute to reconstruction projects in that country.

A writer based in Beijing said Establishing the Northern Silk Road to connect China and Europe via Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland may not be a wise choice for Beijing.

For the moment, it is not a question of going through Russia because Sino-Russian relations are good,” he says. “But what happens if we one day have to ask Russia for help? How much should we pay? He adds that Poland may not be a reliable trading partner either.

He says China's South Silk Road could pass through Turkey, but the Middle Eastern country will likely ask Beijing for a large sum of money. Today, he said, Syria constitutes a new option for China to build its Silk Road.

Sino-Russian bilateral trade

In the first 10 months of this year, bilateral trade between China and Russia grew up 2.8% over one year, to $202 billion, according to Chinese customs. However, this figure fell 5% year-on-year to $20.5 billion in November.

China also exports to Russia fell 10.5% year-on-year in November after growth of 24.4% in October.

Before that, in September, China approved the regulation on civil-military dual-use items after G7 countries raised concerns in April on shipments of weapons components by Chinese companies to Russia. Earlier this year, the country urged local financial institutions to stop accepting Russian renminbi payments to avoid US sanctions.

While Beijing keeps Moscow at bay, the customs service in the eastern Russian city of Moscow, Vladivostok has imposed a customs duty of 55.65% on furniture parts made in China since the fall.

In October, Russia's Ministry of Industry and Trade announced a plan to gradually increase recycling fees for car buyers from 70 to 85 percent from current levels by 2030. The fees, which are seen as another form of tariff targeting Chinese vehicles, will increase. from 10 to 20% from the start of 2025.

Read: First salvo in a Russian-Chinese trade war