Turkey should play major role in building new SyriaExBulletin

AILSA CHANG, HOST:

A statement on behalf of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad says he left his country involuntarily after rebel fighters surrounded a Russian air base in his country and was flown out. Assad's fortunes may have taken a turn for the worse, but that is not the case for Turkey, which shares a long border with northern Syria. Turkey has supported opposition groups since the start of the civil war and is now expected to play an important role in building the new Syria. To make sense of it all, we're joined now by NPR's Fatma Tanis in Istanbul. Hi Fatma.

FATMA TANIS, BYLINE: Hi, Ailsa.

CHANG: OK, let's back up for a minute. Remind us what Turkey's role has been all these years in the Syrian civil war.

TANIS: Of course. Thus, before the civil war, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Bashar al-Assad had good relations. But after Assad's brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters in 2011, Erdogan severed ties and then put his intelligence and military support behind rebel groups fighting Assad. Turkey has also opened its doors to almost 4 million Syrian refugees, and all this has been accompanied by many domestic and economic difficulties and security threats. So, after more than a decade, the Turkish government feels that it was not all in vain.

CHANG: So what are Turkey's roles or objectives in Syria now?

TANIS: Senior Turkish officials made their goals clear in interviews this weekend. The first priority, they say, is to dismantle the Kurdish fighting group known as the YPG. It is a major part of the Kurdish coalition in northeast Syria to which the United States has supplied weapons to help fight ISIS. But Turkey says the YPG is linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which it has fought for more than four decades and which it labels a terrorist group. Turkey is therefore now asking the United States to reassess its position towards the YPG. There is currently no change from Washington on this subject. And, Ailsa, Turkey's second goal is a stable and united Syria. His defense minister offers military support and training to new leaders. Here is the explanation from political scientist Mustafa Kibaroglu.

MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU: I think Turkey will be there to help the new administration because what happens there has a direct impact on Turkey's prosperity, security and everything else. So we cannot turn a blind eye.

CHANG: OK, that said, what kind of influence could Turkey have on Syria's new leaders, in your opinion?

KIBAROGLU: Well, they're going to be heavily invested, and we're already seeing the signs of that. The Turkish embassy in Damascus is operational. The head of Turkish intelligence visited last week and met with the head of HTS. This is the group that defeated Assad's army. And its Foreign Minister Hakan Fidean said in a recent interview that Turkey knows HTS better than anyone and is working to moderate HTS's jihadist roots and encourage them to form an inclusive government. But many questions remain about what the new Syrian administration will look like. This is political analyst Soli Ozel.

SOLI OZEL: If HTS gains more power, to what extent will it be more receptive to Turkey's suggestions and recommendations? That remains to be seen.

TANIS: Yet experts say Syria's new leaders will have to rely on Turkey to help them restore law and order and distribute resources like water and electricity. And some of the millions of refugees in Türkiye that we mentioned will likely return home and provide more leverage for the Turkish government.

CHANG: Well, ultimately, what does all this mean for Turkish President Erdogan?

TANIS: It's a big victory for him at the national level. He had been criticized by almost everyone because of his policies in Syria and his acceptance of refugees. People were really wondering if Turkey had made a mistake by supporting opposition groups rather than Assad. Today, with the arrival of the Trump administration, things are looking up for Erdogan. President-elect Trump spoke about this today during his press conference. Let's listen.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

DONALD TRUMP: Turkey is actually a major force, and Erdogan is someone with whom I get along very well. But it has a significant military force, and this has not been exhausted by the war.

TANIS: Given all of this, Ailsa, analysts say we will likely see Erdogan have a larger presence on the world stage and play a key role in creating a new Syria.

CHANG: That's Fatma Tanis from NPR in Istanbul. Thank you, Fatma.

TANIS: Thank you, Ailsa.

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