Sri Lanka walks a tightrope between India and China DW 16/12/2024

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake on Monday met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Droupadi Murmu in New Delhi to strengthen ties between the neighboring countries.

Dissanayake said India's economic support was critical to realizing his vision of a prosperous Sri Lanka, as the island nation emerges from the worst economic crisis in its independent history.

“Our conversations focused on strengthening Indo-Sri Lankan economic cooperation, enhancing investment opportunities, promoting regional security and developing key sectors such as tourism and energy,” Dissanayake said , better known as AKD, in a press release.

“These commitments reaffirm the commitment to deepening the partnership between our two nations.”

Support from New Delhi in a context of geopolitical tensions

Modi announced on Monday that India plans to supply liquefied natural gas to Sri Lanka's power plants and will work to connect the two countries' power grids.

Many analysts expect the AKD government to come under pressure amid growing geopolitical competition, particularly as India and China vie for influence in the region.

Srikanth Kondapalli, an expert in Chinese studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, said Dissanayake's decision to prioritize India as a strategic partner is influenced by their shared geographical proximity. India has long enjoyed close political, cultural, economic and military ties with Sri Lanka.

“Unlike Nepalese Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who broke with the usual practice of making India the first destination in the neighborhood, AKD's strategy aligns with India's interests in promoting stability and democratic governance,” Kondapalli told DW.

Sri Lanka's strategic change

Earlier this month, Nepal's Oli, who was appointed prime minister in July, made a four-day trip to Beijing to expand cooperation on China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a plan to massive infrastructure that aims to facilitate Chinese trade ties with dozens of people. of countries.

” This is also informed [by] “the much-needed aid of almost $4 billion (3.8 billion) that India provided after the Sri Lanka crisis in 2022 and China's failure to bail out Colombo,” he added, referring to the country's 2022 economic crisis.

Kondapalli noted that China's aggressive maritime activities and alleged predatory fishing operations in the Indian Ocean have raised concerns for Sri Lanka.

“The loss of Hambantota Port for 99 years and the extra-constitutional provisions on the Colombo Port Project to China have undermined Sri Lanka,” Kondapalli said.

Hambantota Port has been a Chinese-run facility since 2017, when Sri Lanka and China signed a 99-year lease after Colombo struggled to repay debt related to the port's construction.

“Dissanayake corrects the wrongs committed by his predecessors who provided unprecedented space to China and restores relations with India,” Kondapalli added.

Relations with China under surveillance

As Sri Lanka faces its economic realities and seeks to redefine its relationships with its influential neighbors, it faces crucial decisions that will shape its economic future and sovereignty.

Dissanayake's visit to New Delhi is crucial in setting the tone of the island nation's foreign policy, especially given his next trip to China scheduled for early 2025.

“Sri Lanka has indeed decided to balance India and China and the Dissanayake government will strive to show gains while being impartial,” Anil Wadhwa, a former Indian diplomat, told DW.

“The Chinese military presence will, however, continue to grow with ships equipped with radar and ultrasound equipment now making regular visits to Sri Lankan ports,” he added.

Sri Lanka's balance between India and China

Sri Lanka's strategic location along vital maritime routes makes it a critical asset for China as it seeks to secure its maritime interests and strengthen its geopolitical influence.

“On the other hand, allowing these visits to other ships, including Indian ones, gives them the latitude to avoid a confrontational situation,” Wadhwa said.

“Confrontations between India and China may continue, but nevertheless, the fact that Dissanayake's first official visit takes place in neighboring India is a good idea and will help move forward on stuck issues.”

It remains unclear how Dissanayake will handle the India-China rivalry or whether he will choose one over the other.

Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, president of the Mantraya Institute of Strategic Studies, an independent research forum, noted that Sri Lanka is not trying to distance itself from China and rely solely on India for all its economic needs.

“It needs help from both countries and would like to cultivate both to meet its distinct needs. Assurance that Sri Lanka will not allow its territory to be used by China for anti-India activities would be the New Delhi's minimum requirement,” Souza told DW.

“India would also need details on what steps Sri Lanka would take to prevent this. However, an aid-dependent Sri Lanka, already deeply caught in a Chinese debt trap, may not be in full control to allay Indian concerns,” she added.

Recently, Dissanayake expressed his intention to strengthen ties with China and India, and he made it clear that Sri Lanka's assets, including its land, seas and airspace, were not up for grabs.

This stance was evident when he opposed Indian group Adani's control of key economic sectors such as Sri Lankan ports and renewable energy, citing environmental concerns.

“The fact that he is visiting China after his India trip underlines how China is closely linked to Dissanayake's vision and policies,” D'Souza said.

“It could ask Beijing for more flexible and restructured repayment conditions. The fact remains that Dissanayake's Sri Lanka is neither inclined nor in a position to seek an alternative to China.”

Edited by: Keith Walker