Should Israel attack Turkish nuclear power plant? | American Business Institute

Should Israel decommission Türkiye's nuclear power plant? Turkeys Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant can start trial operation in 2025. The transition to operation comes a little more than 15 years later Türkiye signed an agreement with Russia to cooperate in the construction of a nuclear power plant near Mersin.

Such a nuclear power plant should never be allowed to operate.

Turkey is a large seismic zone. DevastatingearthquakesstrikeTürkiye every few years. Even discountscorruptionin the construction sector in Türkiye, the Akkuyu factory represents an untenable risk for allEurope.

A greater risk lies in the possibility that Turkey could use its nuclear power plant to acquire fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Turkish officials and even their American counterparts could claim that the Akkuyu plant is proliferation-proof. Aside from the fact that proof of proliferation is never absolute. As with Iran's Bushehr civilian nuclear reactor, the problem was never the diversion to the civilian energy plant, but rather the use of the civilian program as a cover to acquire and divert goods to a secret program.

A nuclear power plant in Türkiye will forever change the dynamics of the region. Turkey is both an irredentist power, openly contesting the century-old agreements that define its borders, and a sponsor of terrorism, although not designated as such. Erdogan openly supports Hamas and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and there is ample evidence that he has also aided al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria and the Islamic State.

If Turkey acquires nuclear weapons, it could not only carry out its threats against other states in the region, but it could also feel so immune behind its own nuclear deterrent that it could increase its support for terrorism without fear of reprisal or accountability. Such political concern reflects that with which many Western countries view the possibility of Iranian nuclear acquisition.

From the Israeli point of view, it does not matter whether anuclear weaponis originally fromIranor in Türkiye. If President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to call for attacks on the Jewish state, Israel will have no choice but to respond.

Here, the past is a precedent. In 1981, Israeli planes attacked the French nuclear reactor at Osirak shortly before it was refueled. Quiet diplomacy had failed, and Western leaders remained mired either in wishful thinking about Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's supposed moderation or simply calculating that the possibility of an Iranian nuclear weapon was not a problem. The same dynamic occurred with the Al Kabir plutonium processing plant near Deir ez-Zour in eastern Syria. Israeli jets destroyed in 2007. Israeli planes flew nearly 1,000 miles to destroy Osirak. The distance between Tel Aviv and Deir ez-Zour was only 600 kilometers, although Israel's circuitous route may have doubled that distance. The straight-line distance from Tel Aviv to the Akkuyu factory is just over 325 miles.

For Israel, attacking the Turkish nuclear reactor could be easier than the operation in Iraq, in the strictly military sense. Unlike Turkey, Israel has F-35 Joint Strike Fighters and it is not necessary for it to fly over the intermediate countries to strike inside Turkey. Turkeys F-16The United States is very good at attacking unarmed Kurds and Armenians, but Erdogan's purge of pilots has left the Turkish Air Force a shell of its former self. Turkey may have anti-aircraft systemsbut these measures are perhaps not much better than those on which Iran relies.

However, on the diplomatic level, the consequences of an attack on Turkey would be profound, especially ifNATOcollective self-defense clauses. If Israel (or any other country) clandestinely attacked the Akkuyu site and did not claim responsibility, it would be possible to circumvent these concerns. After expressing so many conspiracy theories and providing its allies with dossiers filled with little intelligence, Turkey's word is meaningless.

Israel may be the boldest, but it is not the only country unwilling to live in a world with a nuclear Türkiye. Other NATO countries, including the United States, also have reason to fear Turkey's nuclear program. Many NATO countries, including Sweden and Finland, have every reason to put Turkey on the coalface. Israel might be the prime suspect, but in the age of drones and stealth technology, diplomats would refuse to act in the absence of definitive evidence that Jerusalem was to blame.

Then there are other ways to decommission the Turkish nuclear reactor. The Stuxnet virus set back Iran's nuclear program by several years; Turkey is not immune to cyberattacks. Even if Israel were responsible for inserting a virus into Turkey's atomic software, it is not clear that NATO would consider this a reason to respond.

Of course, Turkey would react with fury. Whether or not Turkey has understood that NATO, it no longer falls under the NATO umbrellathis could be enough to force the mercurial Erdogan out of the alliance, thus killing two birds with one stone.

Turkey may believe Akkuyu will be operational in 2025, but in reality, this could be the year the lights at nuclear sites go out once and for all.