Why America's Kurdish Allies Are Threatened in a New Syria

The 13-year civil war between the Syrian government and rebel fighters is over. But the danger is not over for the Kurdish minority in Syria.

A number of armed factions are still fighting to take control of the country following the collapse of the Assad regime. These include the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which has allied with the United States to fight the Islamic State extremist group, and the Syrian National Army, a Turkey-backed militia hostile to Kurdish forces.

For more than a decade, Kurdish-led troops have been the United States' most reliable partner in Syria, liberating towns seized by the extremist group and arresting about 9,000 of its fighters.

But Turkey, which shares a border with Syria, has long considered the Kurdish group its enemy. The Turkish government believes that Kurdish fighters in Syria are allied with the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which has been fighting the Turkish state for decades.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who supports rebel groups that toppled Assad's regime, appears eager to seize the opportunity created by the momentous political change in Syria to pursue his own agenda against Kurdish fighters.

Turkey's new dominance leaves Kurds exposed

The shape of Syria's new government, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is still being determined. But U.S. officials and Middle East analysts agree: Turkey will have outsized influence.

That means the presence of Kurdish groups in the northeast appears increasingly tenuous, said Wael Alzayat, a Syria expert and former U.S. diplomat. Turkey will have the greatest say in what is happening, and will happen, in Syria in the near future, he said.

When Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies took control from President Bashar Assad, they brought with them a wave of Turkish power and influence over Syria's future, said Nicholas Heras, senior analyst at New Lines Institute.

The high stakes for the Kurds and for Western forces determined to prevent a new threat from Islamic State were highlighted last week. Even as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies seized power, Turkish-backed rebels attacked the Syrian Democratic Forces, supported by Turkish airstrikes and artillery fire.

Syrian Democratic Forces commander Gen. Mazloum Abdi told the New York Times that he had to divert fighters defending prisons housing accused Islamic State members to fight Turkish-backed militants.

Now, Heras predicts, Arabs who joined the Syrian Democratic Forces to fight Islamic State could disband or join other rebel groups, under pressure from Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. This would further weaken the Kurdish forces.

In a best-case scenario, officials and experts say, the Kurds could receive enough support from the United States to secure the territory they hold in northeastern Syria. This could give them leverage with the new government in Damascus to achieve a fully autonomous state, something Syria's Kurdish minorities have long sought.

In a worst-case scenario, the Kurds could face a fiery conflict with Turkish-backed fighters, be forced to cede control of at least part of their oil-rich territory and, if President-elect Donald Trump decides to withdraw American troops, losing vital aid on the ground. ground.

The role of the Americas will be crucial

There really needs to be some sort of ceasefire/peace deal between the Turks and Kurds that both sides can agree on, said Natasha Hall, a Syria expert at the Center for Washington Strategic and International Studies.

The Biden administration is racing to negotiate exactly that before leaving office next month.

After meetings in Turkey last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Saturday, using another acronym for the Islamic State group, that ensuring ISIS was in a box remained an urgent priority in Syria . He said Kurdish fighters played a vital role in continuing this mission.

But the diplomatic balance he faced was clear: His meetings in Turkey included talks with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who said earlier last week that a possible PKK expansion into Syria could not be considered. as a legitimate partner.

And on Friday, Fidan pointedly cited the PKK when describing efforts to prevent terrorist organizations from exploiting the political chaos in Syria.

Yet there are signs that American diplomacy is having an impact. Last week, a U.S. commander, Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, visited northeast Syria, where 900 U.S. troops are stationed. Hours later, a ceasefire between Kurdish forces and the Syrian National Army was announced in the northern town of Manbij, where the two sides have frequently clashed.

Abdi, the Kurdish commander, said on social platform X that the ceasefire was negotiated with American assistance. Under the deal, he said, Kurdish forces would withdraw from Manbij, a majority-Arab town that they recaptured from Islamic State in 2016 but which has since become a flashpoint between the factions fighting for control. But he and other Syrian Kurds increasingly fear that their withdrawal from Manbij is only the beginning.

Kobani town could be the next hot spot

Last Tuesday, a senior Hayat Tahrir al-Sham officer said local tribes allied with his group had wrested control of the eastern town of Deir el-Zour from Kurdish fighters who seized power when the forces collapsed. of Assad a few days earlier.

And since then, Turkish-backed rebels have repeatedly fought Kurdish forces in the region around the Euphrates River.

Heras said he believed the skirmishes could be military preparations for an invasion of Kobani, a predominantly Kurdish town.

The city, located just south of the Turkish border, holds deep emotional significance for Kurdish forces, who fought alongside U.S. troops to retake it after a four-month siege by Islamic State that began in late 2015 .

Abdi now appears to be preparing for a possible invasion by Turkey's allied fighters. Heras said residents were fleeing Kobani in their thousands despite a fragile truce deal last week that was aimed at buying time for negotiations.

Turkey is taking advantage of the crisis in Syria to destabilize the region and seize our territory, while claiming to fight terrorists, Sinam Sherkany Mohamad, head of the political wing of Kurdish fighters in Washington, said in a statement. But we are not terrorists; we are democratic allies of the United States.

James F. Jeffrey, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and chief envoy for Syria during the first Trump administration, said any invasion of Kobane would violate a 2019 détente deal that the United States negotiated, whether through Turks or by associated Syrian forces. with the Turks it makes no difference.

Meanwhile, Abdi sought to consolidate relations between the Kurdish fighters and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, saying he sought to establish direct relations with the group's leaders.

Officials and experts have said Turkey may wait until its interests are tied to Syria's new government before deciding whether to launch a full-scale military offensive against Kurdish forces. He could also monitor whether Trump withdraws U.S. troops and how his administration treats Erdogan, a like-minded strongman whose relationship with the United States has often been tumultuous.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., warned in a statement on social media that he was prepared to push for economic sanctions against Turkey if it attacked Kurdish forces, which he said would trigger a breakout of ISIS. He added: If Turkey takes military action against Kurdish forces in Syria, it will significantly jeopardize U.S. interests.

This article was originally published in The New York Times.