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How Turkey Dominated Egypt and the United States in the Horn of Africa

How Turkey Dominated Egypt and the United States in the Horn of Africa

 


Turkey has publicized an agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia, ending nearly a decade of rivalry between the two African nations. Although the agreement is a welcome development for regional stability, Turkish mediation complicates Egypt's regional strategy, while Cairo remains active. engaged in this conflict.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hailed the agreement as a historic agreement. He sees Ethiopia and Somalia All right leave behind differences of opinion and contentious issues. The agreement would grant Ethiopia reliable, secure and sustainable maritime access under Somali sovereignty, implicitly signaling that Addis Ababa will rescind its recognition of the de facto state of Somaliland.

Tensions peaked in January when landlocked Ethiopia reportedly struck an agreement with Somaliland to lease a port and military base in exchange for recognition. Even though Addis Ababa never confirmed the agreement, Somalia considers the agreement a violation of its sovereignty. Egypt, plagued by its own problems dispute with Ethiopia on the water resources of the Nile, supported Somalia as part of its broader strategy to put pressure on Ethiopia.

In August, Egypt would have deployed 10,000 troops and sent two shipments of weapons to Mogadishu. Addis Ababa expressed concern over the arrival of troops and weapons, adage this could worsen the security situation in Somalia and weapons could fall into the hands of Islamist groups like Al Shabab.

In an October 18 interview, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty reaffirmed Cairo's commitment to Somalia's security following Ethiopia's decision completion of the fifth filling phase of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Abdelatty too disclosed that he had reiterated his objection to Ethiopia's unilateral action in a letter to the United Nations National Security Council. Addis Ababa responded with its own response letter at the UN Security Council, accusing Egypt of making repeated threats of use of force. In November, Egypt sent a third arms shipment to Somalia.

Meanwhile, relations between Egypt and Turkey have been cautiously warm-up. In September, Erdogan hosted Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Ankara, marking Sisis' victory. first visit in Türkiye. Relations between the two nations had been far from warm since 2013, when Erdogan sentenced Military coup by Sisis against Mohammed Morsi, then leader of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Erdogan's fiery rhetoric, including calling Sissi a tyrantdeepened the gap.

This dynamic began to change in 2020 when Erdogan reevaluated its strategy. Restoring ties with Turkey could neutralize Egypt's regional threats and boost its ailing economy. For Erdogan, rebuilding ties with Cairo offers a chance to reverse the failure of his isolationist policies, reaffirm Turkey's regional role and seek inclusion in the world. Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum.

Through his mediation with Somalia and Ethiopia, Erdogan dealt a blow to Egyptian influence in the region and its rivalry with Ethiopia. As its influence disappears overnight, Egypt must recalibrate its strategy. Although warming ties between Cairo and Ankara could offer alternatives, Turkey's success in this case underlines its ability to leapfrog Egypt on the regional stage.

This agreement demonstrates Ankara's growing confidence and influence on the world stage. Erdogan has made it clear that he wants to expand Turkey's footprint in Africa and beyond, even in areas of traditional American influence. This reminds us that Turkey is actively challenging traditional power dynamics, often at the expense of the United States and its allies.

This is not the only example of Turkey making headlines. Turkey has become more powerful throughout the Middle East, particularly in Syria. The recent rebel uprising that brought down the Assad regime is widespread. assigned in Ankara green light Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army's military campaign against Damascus, which surprised the entire world and showed the inability of Russia and Iran to support their ally. Turkey wants to assert its will in all areas where Washington seems absent or too distracted by the transition process between the Biden and Trump administrations.

For the United States, Turkey's maneuver should serve as a wake-up call. Although the Horn of Africa is sometimes marginalized in U.S. foreign policy, the region is strategically important for combating instability, curbing extremism and securing key maritime routes in the world's fastest-growing continent. . Turkey's ability to negotiate a deal in Washington's absence shows how power vacuums can be exploited.

Without a regional presence, Washington risks ceding its influence to powers with divergent objectives. Effective mediation in the Nile dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia could restore American credibility and stabilize the Horn of Africa. Failure to do so could deepen fractures among U.S. allies, weaken their influence in an increasingly competitive global landscape or, worse yet, provide Ankara with a new opportunity to further strengthen its position.

Sinan Serious is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and an associate professor of national security studies at Marine Corps University. Follow him on @SinanCiddi.

Mariam Wahba is a research analyst at FDD. Follow her on @themariamwahba.

Image: Photography Sasa Dzambic / Shutterstock.com.

Sources

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2/ https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-turkey-outplayed-egypt-and-us-horn-africa-214120

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