Politics
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping must get along and rekindle their friendship
The Chinese leader is well aware of the imminent threats and has therefore made efforts. After Trump's election, he sent a congratulatory message saying that China and the United States stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation. But this relationship must also work on Beijing's terms.
Xi's limits are clear. At last month's APEC meeting with US President Joe Biden, he highlighted four red lines that Washington should not cross: Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China's political system and Beijing's right to development. This statement constitutes a clear warning to the Trump administration that failure to comply with these rules could further increase tensions.
Some form of formal communication channels should be established before new tariffs are imposed by Washington, to avoid a cycle of retaliation from Beijing. If that doesn't happen, it will take months, if not longer, to bring both sides back to the negotiating table. There is currently a potential model for negotiations: the strategic channel between National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, which has helped stabilize relations since 2022.
There were rare moments of rapprochement. Most recently, the two countries signed an agreement extending bilateral government-to-government scientific cooperation for another five years. It allows scientific and technological cooperation, but minimizes national security risks and keeps the development of critical and emerging technologies outside Beijing's confines.
On China's side, rebuilding relations will depend on its perception of Trump's new national security team and whether it can create back channels for future negotiations.
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The new administration in Washington may adopt a more transactional approach that could turn Taiwan's security into a bargaining chip. Last week's naval exercises around the Taiwan Strait were among Beijing's largest in 30 years, according to Taiwanese officials, recalling that China considers the self-ruled island as its own and wants the United States to United stay away.
All we can hope for is renewed cordiality between Trump and Xi. The nature of the US-China relationship will be defined by strategic competition. It is crucial to prevent further deterioration.
Bloomberg
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