Federal unions prepare for mass Trump layoffs

As January quickly approaches, federal workers are bracing for the new reality under President Donald Trump and worrying about their jobs.

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, whom Trump named to co-lead the new government advisory board, the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, have pledged to cut spending by about $2 trillion, the nearly $3 million of civil servants being at the head of the proverbial chopping block.

In a recent opinion piece, tech CEOs called for massive downsizing across the federal bureaucracy. But to get there, they will have to overcome a major obstacle: federal unions.

By 2023, about 25 percent of the federal workforce was unionized, and the rate of unionization was steadily increasing. Many of these unions rushed to expand or secure favorable collective bargaining agreements that put in place protections for federal employees before Trump took office.

If Musk, Ramaswamy and Trump want to lay off federal workers en masse, they will have to go through these unions, which have the means to enforce federal regulations designed to prevent a new president from cleaning house.

The challenge is not really new to the new administration. Toward the end of his first term, Trump turned his attention to federal worker unions. He issued three decrees weakening their ability to negotiate on behalf of members. When he took office, President Joe Biden rescinded the orders.

“I think it’s going to be a lot worse this time.”

Four years later, however, union leaders and experts predict that an emboldened and prepared Trump will wreak havoc on federal unions. Backed by an anti-union agenda crafted by conservative policy groups like the America First Policy Institute and Project 2025, Trump's coming assault could have catastrophic consequences for federal workers and the American public.

“They're absolutely going to attack unions, there's no doubt about it,” said Ben Olinsky, senior vice president for structural reform and governance at the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank. “I think generally speaking, we should expect Trump to come into office, A) with an actual plan, and B) with people who have thought through how to implement and execute it when of his coming to power the last time.

So I think it's going to be a lot worse this time.

Trumps Anti-Labor Braintrust

Besides Musk and Ramaswamy, Trump has surrounded himself with people determined to shrink the federal workforce and weaken their unions.

Linda McMahon, nominee for Secretary of Education, Brooke Rollins, nominee for Secretary of Agriculture, and Scott Turner, nominee for Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, all come directly from America First Policy Institute, a right-wing think tank that emerged four years ago and has quietly gained significant influence over the incoming administration.

The America First Policy Institute regularly criticizes federal unions, calling, for example, on Congress to prohibit federal unions from engaging in the grievance process following layoffs. In its policy platform, the group argued that federal unions should “reimburse taxpayers for the use of agency resources”, called for the entire federal civil service to be shifted to at-will employment , and once again argued that unions should not be able to appeal layoffs through outside arbitration, a process that protects federal workers from unfair terminations.

A protester holds a sign during an American Federation of Government Employees rally on Capitol Hill in Washington on March 29, 2022. Photo: Eric Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Congressional Republicans have already seized on some of these ideas. Last week, Rep. Barry Loudermilk, R-Ga., reintroduced the MERIT Act, which would make it easier to fire federal workers and prohibit federal unions from filing complaints regarding layoffs, working conditions and mass layoffs.

Another way Trump is mass firing federal employees is “Exhibit F.” At the end of Trump's final term, the former president issued an executive order moving nonpartisan civil servants to a new job category reserved for political appointees. The new category, known as Schedule F, makes it easier to fire these federal workers for any reason, including their political ideology.

Olinksy, of the Center for American Progress, argued that Trump would likely move quickly to put as many federal employees on Schedule F as possible, while also reissuing the three executive orders limiting the bargaining power of federal unions.

“I'm not a betting man, but I'm betting on the fact that they would create a new Schedule F very quickly,” Olinsky said. “I think, to the extent that they can, they're going to use them as tools to try to drive out everyone that you know wouldn't want to go.”

This myriad of threats constantly concerns Jacqueline Simons.

“Federal employee unions are the only thing standing against Ramaswamy, Musk, Trump and the complete annihilation of the federal government,” said Simon, political director of the American Federation of Government Employees, the largest union federal government of the country. .

“Federal employees are often portrayed in the media as lazy, incompetent and worthless. »

Simon said unions like his are the reason DOGE can't just step in, ignore federal law and fire everyone. Instead, such hasty moves would be slowed by processes put in place through union organizing, including the grievance procedure that allows the union to pursue arbitration on behalf of federal workers facing layoffs.

Federal workers are easy political targets, Simon said.

“Federal employees are often portrayed in the media as lazy, incompetent and worthless. I think there’s a lot of racism in there as well,” she said.

Although a slim majority of the federal workforce is white, it is significantly more racially diverse than the nation as a whole, with Black Americans consistently overrepresented in federal government jobs.

Target: Everyone

Workers would not be the only ones at risk if Trump succeeds in weakening federal labor protections, because their jobs directly touch the lives of so many Americans.

One of the groups represented by AFGE is, for example, that of food and safety inspectors within the Ministry of Agriculture.

“So,” Simon said, “if we deregulate food safety standards and get rid of the inspectors that are in the slaughterhouses and meat processing plants, then diseased animals will enter the food supply and we will have more pandemics because, after all, where does this pandemic come from? It passed from other animals to humans.

Retirees are another group who should be concerned, Simon said. About half of retirees rely on their Social Security checks for 100% of their post-retirement income. Mass layoffs could hamper the agency's ability to provide people with their vital checks in a timely manner. Simon.

“It will just lead to more poverty among older people,” she said.

Veterans are another at-risk group. Republicans have made no secret of their efforts to privatize the Department of Veterans Affairs and reduce the existing, already beleaguered staff. Without strong unions to stop them, progressives in Congress say they will be one step closer to their goal.

“They don’t want unions,” said Rep. Delia Ramirez, D-Ill. “They want to be able to make sure that their friends, when they privatize their services, can make the biggest profits. And when we talk about workers' rights, benefits and their salaries, it impacts the bottom line of their billionaire friends.

“When they go after these federal employees, they go after the American people directly.”

Cuts to VA health care personnel are bound to hit veterans hard, Ramirez said, especially vulnerable people and those from minority communities.

They're really going to target, as is the case in many departments, and particularly in the VA, the most vulnerable veterans, often women and black and brown veterans,” she said.

The cascading effects of federal workforce cuts mean that while Trump and DOGE may claim they are only targeting a bloated bureaucracy, they are actually targeting everyone.

“These federal employees are responsible for either providing direct services or establishing the type of programs necessary to make the government work for the American people,” she said. “When they go after these federal employees, they go after the American people directly.”

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