Why September 2025 could be decisive for Narendra Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who publicly confidently declared that the Universe had kept him healthy just so that he could lead India to its Amrit Kaal, till 2047, has to reckon with an obstacle under the form of a man only six days older. than him.

While Modi will celebrate his 75th birthday on September 17, 2025, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat will reach the milestone on September 11.

The two, once comrades in arms, have been at odds in recent years, and Bhagwat might choose their anniversary to up the ante. He could resign or at least appoint a successor, as has been the case within the RSS, the ideological source of the BJP.

Questions will implicitly be asked: Shouldn't Modi follow suit? Shouldn’t he at least talk about retirement?

Lingering Questions

Modi took pains to inform citizens that his retirement is not near. His close aide, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, readily endorsed the proposal. However, the questions may have to be asked again due to internal knots in the Sangh Parivar.

After all, the Parivar, especially the BJP, is very keen on retiring and nurturing the next generation of leaders. Everyone is aware of this, even if they don't do it publicly. For Modi, this is the elephant in the room.

Read also | At nearly 75, Modi is in no hurry to quit, eager to secure his place in history

If Bhagwat makes a grand gesture and says he will resign next year, once the RSS centenary celebrations are over, it could force Modis to address the said elephant.

What RSS wants

The key will clearly be in Bhagwat's hands. It is unclear whether he will continue to fire verbal salvos that, while not aimed at anyone, do not mask his intent.

Since becoming chief minister of Gujarat, Modi has kept the RSS and its leaders at arm's length, barring them from advising him on governance and policy. If the RSS did not like his style of work, it did not make a difference because it pursued its ideological goals of introducing Hindutva to the masses and achieving controversial and long-pending goals , including the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya and the abrogation of Article 370.

But the RSS has never approved of Modi's propensity for self-esteem and the promotion of his cult of personality. A long-standing principle within the Sangh Parivar is that the people (individual) is always secondary to Fortunately (organization); Modi has consistently violated this rule.

War of words

It is now clear that the RSS's lack of enthusiasm during the general election campaign was triggered by the two slogans they claimed embodied its conceit: Modi has warranty (Modis Guarantee) and This time, four or two (This time we will cross the 400 mark).

RSS functionaries, when asked why they were not actively campaigning, responded ironically: If Modis takes the guarantee of ensuring victory, what is the reason for us to campaign? Another answer left little ambiguity. Let's see what total they get without us joining the campaign.

Despite the visible disinterest of the RSS in the election campaign, BJP president JP Nadda made no effort to appease the RSS leadership and self-servingly declared that the BJP no longer needed the RSS as the party was in sufficiently capable and that the RSS was a purely ideological organization.

Repair the fences

The Lok Sabha verdict has amply established that the RSS network is still necessary for the BJP. Finally, the BJP took the first step towards rapprochement. Nadda and BJP organizing secretary BL Santosh traveled all the way to Palakkad in Kerala to attend the Akhil Bharatiya Samanway Baithak in August.

Read also | Mohan Bhagwat's Vijayadashami speech: duality at best, duplicity at worst

This led the RSS to return to campaign for the BJP in Haryana and later in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Bhagwat also remained silent during the elections.

It is important to note that the BJP's victories in Haryana and Maharashtra were achieved without extensive campaigning by Modi. The RSS considers these victories to be those of Sangathan and Hindutva. vichardhara (thought).

Reduced dependence

Although he is opposed to idol worship (shameless idolization of an individual), the RSS knew the importance of individuals in garnering mass support. The changed sentiment after the last round of polls is that support for Hindutva has crossed the threshold, reducing dependence on any individual, even Modi.

If this sentiment gains ground, it is possible for RSS leaders to conclude that there is no longer a need for a centralizing figure like Modi that any leader loyal to Nagpur would do.

In the Maharashtra elections, it was evident that Devendra Fadnavis was the RSS's chosen man. Moreover, during the national executive meeting in Mathura in October, Sangh bosses extended full support to Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. They supported his controversial majority statement made in the context of Bangladesh: batenge to tenge (We will be massacred if we are disunited), which has become the slogan of the Maharashtra polls. If there is one, it's for sure (We are safe if we are united).

Electoral weight

The RSS has undoubtedly demonstrated to the BJP, particularly Modi, its electoral capacity. In the changed equation between the two, it is likely that the next BJP president will be chosen only after due consultation with the RSS leadership.

But Modi is no novice to politics and is equally sharp and astute, with an immense desire to wield political power. He doesn't want a seat other than the drivers' seat.

After more than a decade where the RSS was relegated to the background, the task of following the Sangh Parivar politically promises to be difficult and exciting.

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In the RSS, there is no retirement code of 75 years. Bhagwat's three predecessors, KS Sudarshan, Rajendra Singh (Rajju Bhaiyya) and Balasaheb Deoras, the only sarsanghchalaks (chiefs) so as not to die in harness, retired at 78-79.

Question of convenience

In the BJP, however, this rule exists for convenience. For example, when Modi, after leading the BJP to its famous victory in 2014, did not induct party veterans LK Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi into the Union Council of Ministers because they were over 75 years old . Instead, they were pushed to the newly constituted and inconsequential Margdarshak Mandal, which was never convened.

Since then, a lot has happened within the BJP regarding this age code. It was waived when necessary and respected when someone had to be forcibly retired. Unambiguously, convenience was the guiding star.

For example, Anandiben Patel filed his papers in August 2016 as the chief minister of Gujarat three months before he turned 75. Yet she was later rehabilitated as governor of Uttar Pradesh, where Modi needed a loyalist to keep up with developments.

Former Union minister Santosh Gangwar, who was denied a berth in this year's elections in Uttar Pradesh's Bareilly, was later reinstated as governor of Jharkhand, yet again a State where the Prime Minister could use alert and loyal eyes and ears.

On the other hand, the party's strongman in Karnataka, BS Yediyurappa, was over 76 years old when he was appointed the chief minister in 2019. He remained in office well beyond 78 years.

Read also | Unions reject latest UPS reminder of Modis' lowered stature

Many cases

There are many other cases where this regulation was applied to those Modi wanted to leave, and was lifted when someone's presence or retention was required for party leadership.

Last year, Modi seemed to have deviated from the rule for himself when he expressed confidence about his third term as he turns 79 in 2029, when the term of this Lok Sabha is expected to take END.

Shah immediately agreed with his remarks. Modi would remain prime minister for the entire term, he said, adding that there was no stipulation of retirement in the BJP constitution.

Recall what Shah said before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when more than 20 BJP veterans, including Advani, Joshi, Sumitra Mahajan and Kalraj Mishra, were denied party tickets. When asked, Shah cited the fact that they had crossed 75 years. Previously an MP from Gujarat and later a Rajya Sabha MP, Shah bagged the Advanis Lok Sabha ticket from Ahmedabad.

Watch | Is RSS pulling the rug out from under Modi's feet?

Kejriwals prediction

In May, former Delhi chief minister and Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal spoke about the elephant in the room.

Soon after his release on interim bail from Tihar jail, he claimed that tossing lots with Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections would be equivalent to voting for Amit Shah for the post of Prime Minister. This would be because Modi would retire from politics at the age of 75 in September 2025 and Shah would succeed him.

Shah, contradicting his 2019 stance, insisted that Modi would not resign.

Clearly, retirement at 75 is not an officially accepted credo of the BJP. Rather, it is a selectively applied standard.

Only time will tell

A year into the phase of discord, it is unclear whether the RSS-Modi equation will be resolved by 2025. Modi, more than anyone, knows that RSS leaders are not obsessed with their mandate as him. This gives them the freedom to make decisions that could result in short-term setbacks.

However, nothing can be definitively stated at this stage. Nothing can also be excluded. Time will tell who ultimately owns this Amrit Kaal. But Modi has surely never faced such a serious challenge before, from without or within.

(The Fed seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. Any information, ideas or opinions contained in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Fed.)