How a Shutdown Could Affect a New Congress and Trump's Inauguration

WASHINGTON President-elect Donald Trump is only a month away from being sworn in, but a possible government shutdown raises questions in Washington about how a funding shortfall could affect the opening of the next Congress, the certification of Trump's election and his inauguration.

The short answer: probably not much.

Indeed, employees and functions that support the constitutional duties of the President and Congress as well as life and property are exempt from disruptions in service.

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Although the federal government has never been shut down in January after a presidential election, Congress and previous administrations, including Trump's, have plenty of experience continuing to operate during a shutdown.

At the Capitol, parliamentary experts spent time imagining what could happen under different scenarios. Here's what we know and what we don't know about a pre-inauguration shutdown, the first of its kind.

The new Congress

Under the 20th Amendment to the Constitution, the new Congress will convene on January 3 at noon.

A shutdown would not affect this process per se, as neither lawmakers nor essential aides are required to stop working during a shutdown. Some employees deemed nonessential would be furloughed, but only those whose jobs are not necessary for lawmaking, security, and other functions related to Congress's constitutional duties.

The administration, which implements protocols to close federal agencies, has no power over congressional employees.

Certification of election results

Although a disruption in federal funding would not prevent Congress from carrying out its constitutional duties, the kind of political chaos that led to the shutdown fight this month could.

Even before lawmakers are sworn in on Jan. 3, the House elects its speaker, allowing all subsequent business to be conducted. But current Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is in the hot seat, as evidenced by his struggle to find the votes needed to keep the government open.

In 2023, Republicans took five days and 15 rounds of voting to hand the gavel to then-Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., on Jan. 7.

That raises the possibility that the House will fail to elect a president before Jan. 6, the day set aside for Congress to certify the electoral votes that will make Trump president.

If there is no speaker, no one has the procedural authority to begin counting electoral votes. Without a president, newly elected lawmakers cannot take the oath of office, meaning they cannot formally vote to certify electoral votes or to reopen the government.

No one expects January 6, 2025, to be an echo of the same day in 2021 when a mob of pro-Trump loyalists stormed the Capitol in a vain attempt to prevent the certification of Trump's defeat. President Joe Biden. But another type of chaos, a Headless House, is a related possibility.

Because the Senate is a permanent body, two-thirds of whose members were not on the ballot in November, it does not face the same procedural hurdles.

Parliamentary experts on Capitol Hill have informed House leaders that there are possible solutions if Republicans cannot reach a consensus on who should be president by January 6.

One thing the House can do if a problem arises is to elect a temporary president or one whose purpose or duration is limited, said a former House aide who is familiar with the situation and has obtained the anonymity to speak frankly.

But, as the expert said, “this is whole new territory.”

The inauguration

Typically, the new president takes the oath of office before the Chief Justice of the United States on the West Front of the Capitol, a rare meeting of all three branches of government at the same time and in the same place. This is a major national security event that requires intensive coordination among federal agencies and between the Administration, the Capitol Police, and Washington, DC law enforcement.

There are employees in each of the federal security agencies who would be furloughed in the event of a shutdown, but the Office of Management and Budget makes clear in its guidance to agencies that workers who support the official actions of the President and ensure public safety must stay on the job. their messages.

For example, the Department of Homeland Security's shutdown contingency plan calls for retaining 150,063 employees necessary to protect life and property and 152 employees necessary to carry out the constitutional duties and powers of the President.

Even the National Park Service, which is responsible for the grounds of the National Mall and adjacent monuments, has a plan to ensure that a closure would not leave its turf cluttered. The Park Service may use “the minimum level of its money to provide essential health, public safety and protective services as an exempt activity so as to maintain toilets and sanitation, emergency operations of enforcement of the law regarding waste collection and protection of park resources.

But before the inauguration, officials are preparing to shift power and information within federal agencies. An administration official said that while the impact is not yet clear, a shutdown would make the job more difficult.

“A shutdown this close to the inauguration will be incredibly disruptive for the new administration,” this person said. “This will slow down the onboarding and offboarding process and make it much more difficult for agency offboarding teams to meet their outgoing counterparts. We're in somewhat uncharted territory here, but that's not how we Let us prepare to take office.”

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