How 2024 gave Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi a reality check

Narendra Modi seemed politically invincible since he became Indian Prime Minister a decade ago. With an exhausted opposition and a dispirited media, Modi managed to form a cult of personality around himself, which gave him the confidence to declare before the 2024 elections that God sent me and that this energy (in me) could not have come from my biological body. .

For him and his supporters, the summer elections seemed a mere formality and were an inevitability: the Modis Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) claimed it was on course to win a supermajority in Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament Indian. The BJP had its eyes on the 370 mark in the 545-member strong legislature, a target that observers called ambitious but achievable.

On June 4, 2024, as the results began to trickle in, Modi and his BJP realized that they were perhaps victims of their overconfidence. The slogan “370 this time” backfired when voters denied even a simple majority to the ruling party.

The BJP fell to just 240 seats, 63 fewer than five years ago.

Modi is now counting on his allies to keep his government running. This is the first time he has to face stronger opposition in the House and also a Leader of Opposition (LOP), in the person of Rahul Gandhi of the main opposition Indian Congress party. Indian voters truly cut Modi down to size, as the BJP had made him the face of their election campaign.

But before Indian voters, it was the Indian Supreme Court which led the way in February with its historic decision on electoral bonds. The apex court ruled unconstitutional the plan that the BJP had hailed as an effective tool to curb the use of cash in Indian politics.

In 2018, the BJP launched the Electoral Bonds initiative which allows individuals and businesses to make anonymous donations to political parties.

But a court headed by then-Chief Justice of India Dhananjaya Chandrachud said the project violated the Indian Constitution.

The plan did little to stop political corruption, he noted. It also discouraged donors from supporting opposition parties because they feared the government could access their information through state-owned bank SBI.

The Supreme Court later ruled that this lack of transparency violated citizens' right to information.

India's economic slowdown in recent months has also threatened Modi's previously unassailable stature in Indian politics.

Since the end of September 2024, global investors have withdrawn around $10 billion from the Indian stock market.

This is the largest cash outflow in a single quarter since mid-2022.

Money is also flowing out of Indian bonds at a faster pace.

To add to the difficulties, the Indian rupee has repeatedly fallen to record lows against the US dollar in recent months.

India's quarterly economic growth rate slowed to 5.4 percent, the lowest since 2022.

This has led many economists to lower their growth forecasts for the country.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the central bank, now expects economic growth of 6.6 per cent in the current financial year. This is a drop from its earlier forecast of 7.2 percent.

Additionally, the RBI has warned of a significant rise in inflation, which could lead to further problems.

Despite electoral setbacks that led him to rely on potentially fragile allies, 2024 hasn't been all bad for Modi.

The year also held pleasant surprises for the Indian Prime Minister.

Watch: India: No system is perfect, says Indian PM Modi on electoral bond system

Poll results in Haryana and Maharashtra, two of India's richest states, helped the BJP regain its momentum.

As 2025 approaches, elections in Delhi and Bihar are high on Modi's agenda.

It remains to be seen whether Modi will repeat a 2024-like rough start or manage to bounce back.

Disclaimer: The author's opinions do not represent those of WION or ZMCL. WION or ZMCL also do not endorse the author's opinions.