In Afghanistan, Trump will have to play a balancing game | Donald Trump

Since the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States, discussions have increased about what his new administration's policy towards Afghanistan could look like.

Many expect a tougher stance on the Taliban, but a closer look at Trump's track record and statements on the issue indicates he is unlikely to make drastic changes to pragmatic and staunchly anti-interventionist policies that he continued during his first term in power.

During his first term as president, Trump made clear his stance against prolonged foreign engagements and particularly against the decades-long U.S. presence in Afghanistan. He was the architect of the 2020 Doha Accord between the United States and the Taliban, which paved the way for American withdrawal from the country and ultimately allowed the Taliban to return to power.

The Doha Agreement constituted a major turning point in the Americas' strategy in Afghanistan. Dissatisfied with the progress of his administration's South Asia policy, frustrated by a lack of accountability from military advisers, and eager to prove to his voting base that he could indeed end one of the longest wars and costliest in the Americas, Trump began looking for a quick solution. get out of Afghanistan. And after all traditional strategies failed to produce a viable exit plan, he began direct negotiations with the Taliban to end the conflict.

After his re-election, Trump will likely stick to this business-like approach to foreign policy, which remains popular with his base, and favor pragmatic deals over costly confrontations and military entanglements in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

The Taliban themselves appear to believe that the Trump presidency could be beneficial to their future prospects. For example, the Afghan government hopes that the incoming Trump administration will take realistic steps towards concrete progress in relations between the two countries and that the two countries can open a new chapter in their relations, the ministry spokesperson said. of Foreign Affairs Abdul Qahar Balkhi in a message. on X in November, shortly after Trump's victory in the US elections.

The Taliban's optimism about future relations stems from their positive interactions with the first Trump administration. After all, the first Trump administration negotiated directly with the Taliban, initiated the process of US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and set the stage for their return to Kabul.

However, although he has been more open to pragmatic collaboration with the Taliban than President Joe Biden and strongly opposed to any direct military confrontation, Trump is unlikely to let the Taliban have their way with the country. or give him everything he needs without extracting agreement from it. price. If the Taliban fails to meet the commitments it made under the Doha deal, for example, Trump would likely reduce U.S. aid or condition it on tangible progress in specific areas.

Trump has consistently advocated cutting foreign aid as part of an “America First” approach, and he may also significantly reduce U.S. aid to Afghanistan without giving a reason or condition. He would also not hesitate to impose severe economic sanctions on the Taliban government if he concluded that it was in any way harming American interests.

U.S. humanitarian aid, amounting to about $40 million a week since the Taliban took power, provides an important lifeline for Afghanistan's impoverished population. Any limitation or reduction in US aid would have significant consequences for its well-being and that of the fragile Afghan economy. Such a move would deepen Afghanistan's economic crisis and further undermine progress in education, health care and food security.

Since Trump's last term as president, global attention has shifted away from Afghanistan. After the withdrawal of the United States and with the start of burning conflicts with global consequences in Ukraine and Palestine, the country became somewhat peripheral to Washington's foreign policy agenda. As an America First president who will have to spend a lot of time managing crises in the Middle East and Europe, it is highly unlikely that Trump will treat Afghanistan as anything other than a problem he has already resolved.

However, Trump's isolationist foreign policy tendencies, coupled with the aid cuts and economic sanctions he could impose on the Taliban, could easily lead to the collapse of the Afghan economy and once again transform the Afghanistan becomes an urgent problem for the United States and its allies.

Afghanistan's economic collapse could trigger a new migration crisis, significant regional instability and create fertile ground for extremist groups, such as ISIL affiliate (ISIS) in Khorasan province, to flourish.

Even if Trump's non-interventionist stance appeals to an American public wary of foreign intervention, the fallout from a weakened and even more impoverished Afghanistan could present long-term security challenges.

Such a scenario would also have serious consequences for the Afghan people, worsening economic hardship and causing a potential collapse of health services, a resumption of conflict and increased isolation from the rest of the world.

Once Trump returns to the White House and attempts to implement his “America First” agenda, Afghanistan is unlikely to be high on his mind. Nevertheless, the choices he makes regarding Afghanistan will have significant consequences not only for the long-suffering Afghan people, but also for the entire international community.

In short, during his second term, Trump will need to find the right balance between pragmatic disengagement and global leadership responsibilities to succeed in his Afghanistan policy and ensure that his efforts to end one conflict do not create a worse one. in the long term.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.

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