What is stopping India from inviting Nepalese Prime Minister Oli, despite his repeated requests?

Nepalese Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli has been looking forward to visiting India since he assumed office for the fourth time on July 15 this year.

Traditionally, Nepalese prime ministers make India their first destination. Oli wanted to visit India in August-September, and his office as well as Nepal's foreign ministry contacted New Delhi for an invitation.

However, New Delhi has shown little interest in welcoming Oli. After several requests went unanswered, Oli decided to accept Beijing's invitation and visited China earlier this month (read this).

Interestingly, Olis' first official visit abroad was not to China, but to New York for the 79th United Nations General Assembly.

Oli met briefly with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of an event, but it was largely a photo op. India is believed to have agreed to the brief meeting after repeated requests from Nepal, probably to save face for Oli.

Even the statement issued by India was brief, omitting the usual mutual invitations for visits between the two leaders.

Olis' visit to China, on the other hand, turned into a fiasco (read this) and sparked significant controversy in Nepal, especially after Beijing misled him over the financing model for BRI projects in Nepal.

Nepal made another attempt to secure an Indian invitation for Oli during Nepalese Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba's unofficial visit to New Delhi last weekend. Deuba, wife of Nepali Congress president and former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, stopped in New Delhi on her way back to Kathmandu after a European tour.

Deuba underwent a medical examination in New Delhi and sought an appointment with Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, but was unable to meet him due to his concerns. She was also unable to meet other senior ministers or Foreign Ministry officials.

Instead, she participated in an interaction organized by the India Foundation, led by senior BJP leader Ram Madhav, and addressed the Indo-Nepal Economic Forum, urging industrialists and businessmen Indians to invest in Nepal.

Oli and other leaders of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) believed that Deuba's visit could lead to an invitation from New Delhi. During her last visit in August, she met Jaishankar and Prime Minister Modi, and the Nepali Congress maintains close ties with Indian political leaders.

Former Nepali Foreign Minister and CPN-UML Deputy General Secretary Pradeep Gyawali also visited New Delhi over the weekend to discuss Oli's desire to visit India. However, like Deuba, Gyawali returned to Kathmandu on December 23 without any results.

While Oli was in Beijing in early December, his Minister of Industry and Commerce, Damodar Bhandari, traveled to New Delhi to meet his Indian counterparts, including Piyush Goyal and Hardeep Puri. Bhandari, a senior CPN-UML leader, spoke to BJP officials about Oli's intention to improve ties with India.

Although he failed to secure an invitation, Oli announced last week during a visit to his home district of Jhapa that he would soon visit India.

Why is India rejecting Oli

The answer lies in Oli's many missteps shortly after becoming prime minister in mid-July.

According to a senior official of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MEA), India wanted to welcome Oli in August or September.

However, Oli set out conditions that India could not fulfill. His office informed New Delhi that India is expected to announce the process to resolve the Limpiyadhura-Kalapani-Lipulekh tri-junction dispute between India, Nepal and Tibet during his visit.

During his previous term as prime minister, from February 2018 to July 2021, Oli arbitrarily claimed a 335 square kilometer area in Uttarakhand, including Limpiyadhura, Kalapani and Lipulekh. He even altered the maps of Nepal to include Indian territory, fueling anti-Indian sentiments in Nepal. Oli also accused India of being a regional bully.

New Delhi speculated that Oli stoked the controversy to distract from his mishandling of the coronavirus crisis and to fend off growing internal opposition within his own party (read this).

Since then, Indian political leaders have harbored deep irritation and distrust of Oli. Despite his overtures, New Delhi is still not convinced of his change of heart.

India considers Oli to be cunning, having tried to play India against China on several occasions. Oli is also believed to be aligned with Beijing and will always act in favor of China.

However, India could have considered welcoming Oli if he had not raised the issue of Limpiyadhura-Kalapani-Lipulekh. Olis' office had insisted that India announce the creation of a joint mechanism to resolve this issue, but New Delhi firmly maintains that there is no dispute. India believes that the territory in question is unquestionably Indian and never belonged to Nepal.

By raising this topic, Oli crossed a red line, pushing Indian leaders to decide not to welcome him.

Olis' office and emissaries later assured New Delhi that he would not raise the Limpiyadhura-Kalapani-Lipulekh dispute during his visit. However, New Delhi is not convinced, mainly because it believes Oli is untrustworthy.

The Nepalese Prime Minister then conveyed to New Delhi his request to India to allow flights to and from Pokhara International Airport and Gautam Buddha International Airport in Bhairahawa to use Indian airspace .

India rejected the request, which was crucial to the viability of the two airports because they were built by China.

Despite repeated warnings from New Delhi, Nepal has proceeded to award construction contracts for Pokhara and Gautam Buddha international airports to China. India had explicitly told Nepal that it would not allow flights to and from these airports to use Indian airspace.

New Delhi maintains that its position remains unchanged, since it had warned Nepal about the consequences of awarding contracts to China.

India conveyed to Kathmandu that while infrastructure deals in sectors such as power, flood control and others that benefit Nepal could be negotiated, the issues of Limpiyadhura and utilization of Indian airspace for flights to or from Chinese-built airports were non-negotiable.

Oli did not explicitly accept India's terms and instead attempted to circumvent them, leading New Delhi to remain wary of his intentions.

This is why no invitation from New Delhi has yet materialized for Oli.

Also read: Explained: Why Nepal PM breaks tradition by desperately rushing to China instead of visiting India

Nepalese Prime Minister Oli wanted to show off his Chinese ties with India, but he was misled by Beijing

The plain truth: why Nepal has nothing to gain from belligerence over the territorial dispute with India