Asia 2025 will be a year of upheaval and uncertainty

Highlights

• Trade wars and military expansion will define US-China relations under Trump, impacting the region.
• Taiwan prepares for increased tensions between the United States and China, putting its future security in question
• Strengthening ties between North Korea and Russia pose new challenges for U.S. Asia policy

A looming trade war between the world's two superpowers, tensions in Taiwan and the South China Sea and an unstable North Korea will likely dominate the Asian political agenda in 2025.

Much will depend on the region's relations with US President-elect Donald Trump. During his first term, he continued his “America First” policy by isolating his allies and antagonizing Beijing and Pyongyang.

Here are five things I'll be paying attention to in what promises to be a tumultuous year for Asian politics:

Trump-Xi relationship will define the future

Successfully rekindling the camaraderie between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his American counterpart will determine how their strategic competition plays out under a second Trump administration. His threat to impose tariffs of at least 60% on Chinese goods is never far from Beijing's mind. Bloomberg Economics estimates that these tariffs could ultimately reduce Chinese exports to the United States by 83%.

At a time of slowing growth, a real estate slowdown and job losses, Xi will work to find ways to mitigate the risks of a new trade war. The sooner a face-to-face meeting takes place, the better Beijing's efforts will be in trying to reach an agreement. Meanwhile, Washington will have its eyes on China's military expansion, which has continued to grow in size and ambition over the year.

Taiwan will have difficulty dealing with Trump

There is one thing Xi will not negotiate, however, and that is Taiwan. China claims this autonomous island and says unification is inevitable. This is part of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, and for Beijing it means becoming the world's leading power by 2049. For Taipei, this represents an existential crisis: increasingly, the vast majority of young Taiwanese are turning towards a distinct vision. identity far from the continent.

Beijing views President Lai Ching-te's administration as separatist and any U.S. support as crossing a key red line. Lai was able to count on American defense aid and certain security guarantees, however ambiguous, from President Joe Biden. But under Trump, nothing is guaranteed. Taiwan will have to arm itself more, but also play a skillful diplomatic game.

The Philippines and the United States, an uncertain alliance

The Philippines should also prepare for a tough 2025. With its heavy dependence on the United States, Manila is particularly exposed. Will their ties remain strong, or will Beijing be able to drive a wedge? “With Trump, it's really transactional: he's going to ask, 'What's in it for me?'” Susannah Patton, director of the Southeast Asia program at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute, told me . “This will determine whether Washington is obligated to respond if Manila needs help.”

This scenario does not make it easier for Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to continue his lonely fight against China in the South China Sea, which his navy is valiantly waging this year. Maintaining pressure on Beijing's actions in the disputed waterway will be crucial to ensuring that freedom of navigation in the area remains intact.

North Korea and Russia are getting closer

American foreign policy in 2025 will be dominated by the war in Ukraine, the conflict between Israel and Gaza, the crisis in Syria and a bellicose North Korea. This latter situation risks constituting one of the biggest problems in Asia for the new administration in Washington. Leader Kim Jong Un has spoken out in favor of expanding his nuclear weapons program and now has a willing partner in Moscow to help him achieve those goals.

In return, Kim sent North Korean soldiers to fight alongside Russia on the front lines in Ukraine. This partnership is likely to strengthen even further as President Vladimir Putin seeks to crush his opponents. He will need all the manpower he can get.

Political unrest in South Korea benefits Beijing

The North's growing relationship with Russia comes at a time when a key U.S. ally across the border is preoccupied with its own domestic political problems. South Korea's unrest is only just beginning, with elections expected in the coming months.

A possible change in leadership could result in an administration warmer toward Beijing than that of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who generally leaned toward Washington.

With the exception of China, Asia has often been a neglected foreign policy priority of previous U.S. administrations. Biden has worked to renew Washington's presence in the region, and Trump is expected to build on that. We have seen how volatile the situation can become when America is distracted.

Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist who covers Asian politics with a particular focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC's lead presenter for Asia and worked for the BBC in Asia and South Asia for two decades.