How Donald Trump remade the electoral map

The electoral map of the United States is now very different from what it was before Donald Trump arrived on the political scene. The president-elect's anti-establishment, Main Street-focused policies have improved Republican fortunes in some states and diminished them in others, but not to the same extent. Trump's emergence left the blue wall of Democrats' supposedly impenetrable hold on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in purple ruins, and changed the map in other ways as well.

Of the seven states that averaged the narrowest margins of victory in presidential elections from 1996 to 2012, only two (Nevada and New Hampshire) were among the seven closest in 2024. The other five closest from 1996 to 2012 2012: Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, and Virginia were replaced by Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2024.

Remarkably, Trump's margin of victory in Florida in 2024 was larger than Kamala Harris's in New York. Such an outcome seemed unthinkable until it happened. In the previous seven presidential elections, New York's margin of victory typically exceeded Florida's by more than 20 percentage points; as recently as 2020, the Empire States' margin exceeded that of the Sunshine States by 19.7 points (Joe Biden having won New York by 23.1 points while Trump won Florida by 3.4 points). Then, out of nowhere, came 2024: Harris won New York by 12.5 points, but Trump won Florida by 13.1 points.

This Republican rout in what has long been a quintessential swing state was the result of the formidable, if somewhat unorthodox, team-building of Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantiss. Trump's endorsement helped DeSantis get elected in 2018, and DeSantis's resulting popularity in office, a product of his combination of governing skills and a singular willingness to challenge establishment pundits ( especially on Covid), has made the Sunshine State increasingly fertile ground for Trump. Even though the two teammates don't always get along well, the electoral results in the country's third-largest state have been remarkable. In the more than 35 years since Ronald Reagan left office in January 1989, no other presidential candidate from either party has won Florida even half as much as Trump did in 2024.

Florida is not the only place where Trump has made enormous progress compared to his recent Republican predecessors. The ribbon of interconnected states that runs through Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa has been vitally important to U.S. presidential elections for more than 150 years. From the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860 until Trump's victory in 2024, the presidential candidate who won the majority of these five states has won 35 of 42 elections (83%); candidates who won all five elections won 26 of 27 races (96 percent). (The only exception? James Blaine, who won those five states but narrowly lost the 1884 election; he would have beaten Grover Cleveland if he had received just 1,150 more votes in New York.)

In presidential elections from 1996 to 2012, Republican candidates won the respective elections in these five key states only 12% of the time (three wins, 22 losses). In the next three elections, Trump won the battles in these states 80% of the time (12 wins, 3 losses). Trump's success in Ohio and Iowa is particularly notable. From 1996 to 2012, on average, these two states' results were about 2 points behind those of the United States as a whole; they were among the most centrist swing states. But in the three Trump elections, on average, Ohio and Iowa were each more than 10 points to the right of the United States, representing a massive shift. In 2024, Trump won each of these states by a larger margin than Harris won Illinois. At this point, Ohio and Iowa aren't really swing states anymore.

Trump's gains in Michigan were also extraordinary. The Wolverine State averaged 6 points to the left of the country between 1996 and 2012. During Trump's three elections, by contrast, it was 1.3 points to the right of the country, an average shift of 7. 3 points. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, meanwhile, experienced similar shifts, collectively moving from 2.8 points to the left, on average, between 1996 and 2012, to about 2 points to their right, on average, in all three elections. Trump. Trump also gained ground in uncompetitive states, such as New York, New Jersey and West Virginia.

On the other hand, Republicans performed worse in Georgia during the Trump era. The Peach State averaged 12 points behind the American right between 1996 and 2012, and had shown no real signs of movement. It was still 11.7 points behind the national right in 2012. The state moved closer to the center with each subsequent election, until 2024, where it was one of four states (along with Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan) whose result was one point behind all nations. Trump also lost ground in Arizona, but not as much. After voting an average of 10 points right in presidential elections from 1996 to 2012, the Grand Canyon State voted just 4 points right in 2024.

At least five states continued, but did not accelerate, their shift to the left, with Trump leading the way. (They cumulatively moved slightly further left from 2000 to 2012, relative to the country, than they did from 2012 to 2024.) Virginia moved further toward the left in each of the last seven presidential elections, alongside the continued expansion of the federal government and the resulting increase in the number of lawyers and lobbyists in Northern Virginia. On the Pacific Coast, Washington has also moved more in the Democratic direction, relative to the rest of the country, over these seven presidential elections, with Oregon following a similar pattern. During the same period, Colorado moved rapidly to the left, while North Carolina did so gradually.

And then there is Texas. Democrats have long dreamed of flipping the Lone Star State, a prospect that continues to feel like just that, a fantasy. Texas has been more than 10 points ahead of the national right in each of the last eight presidential elections. And although Texas was closer in the Trump era than in the George W. Bush or Barack Obama years (when it was about 20 points to the right of the country), it was slightly further to the right of the United States in 2024 than in 2020. or 2016. In short, the Democrats' chances of flipping Texas (12.2 points for the national right in 2024) seem as likely as those of the Republicans in overthrow Illinois (12.4 points). (pointing to the left of the country in 2024).

In summary, among states that are or were competitive, Republicans performed better during the Trump years in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, states with a total of 97 votes. electoral. Their results are less good in Georgia and Arizona, with a total of 27 electoral votes. In other current and former competitive states (like Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada), their prospects remain roughly on the same trajectory as before Trump took office.

A month before the election, as John Tierney noted, Nate Silver agreed to bet $100,000 that Trump would not win Florida by 8 points. Fortunately for Silver, the gamble does not appear to have been finalized, given that Trump easily crossed that threshold. At the same time, Harris won California by 20.1 points, well below Biden's 29.1 point victory in 2020. Although it is premature to ask whether Florida could eventually become as Republican as the California is Democratic, the question is less far-fetched than it would have been. seemed like two months ago.

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