Analysis: Why have Pakistan's ties with the Afghan Taliban turned frosty? | Taliban news

When the Taliban took power in Kabul in August 2021, Pakistan's Interior Minister Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed delivered a triumphant press conference at the Torkham border post with Afghanistan.

He said the Taliban's rapid rise to power would create a new bloc and the region would achieve great global importance. Imran Khan, Pakistan's prime minister at the time, equated the Taliban's return to power with the fact that Afghans had broken the chains of slavery.

For nearly 20 years, the Afghan Taliban waged a sophisticated and sustained revolt, at one point facing a U.S.-led coalition of more than 40 countries in Afghanistan. During this period, Taliban leaders and fighters found refuge in Pakistan, in the areas bordering Afghanistan. Taliban leaders also established a presence and links with major cities in Pakistan such as Quetta, Peshawar and later Karachi.

Many Taliban leaders and fighters are graduates of Pakistani Islamic religious schools, including Darul Uloom Haqqania, where Mullah Muhammad Omar, founder of the Taliban movement, is believed to have studied. In Pakistan, the Taliban found an ecosystem fostering organic relationships across the spectrum of Pakistani society, allowing the group to reorganize and launch a deadly uprising that began around 2003. Without Pakistan's support and sanctuary, the Taliban A successful Taliban uprising would have been very unlikely. .

In this context, what explains the recent deterioration in bilateral relations, with the Pakistani military carrying out airstrikes in Afghanistan this week, the latest evidence of tensions between Islamabad and the Afghan Taliban?

Historical and current factors

Afghanistan has a complicated history with Pakistan. While Pakistan has welcomed the Taliban in Kabul as a natural ally, the Taliban government is proving less cooperative than Pakistan hoped, aligning itself with nationalist rhetoric to galvanize support from Afghan society at large. Taliban leaders are also eager to transition from a group of fighters to a government, which is apparently an ongoing effort, and to forge relationships beyond a heavy reliance on Pakistan.

The Durand Line, a colonial-era border dividing regions and communities between Afghanistan and what is now Pakistan, was never formally recognized by any Afghan state after the creation of Pakistan in 1947. The Durand Line is internationally recognized as a border between the two countries. , and Pakistan closed it almost entirely. Yet in Afghanistan, the Durand Line has become a sensitive issue because it divides Pashtuns on both sides of the border.

The Taliban government of the 1990s did not endorse the Durand Line, and the current Taliban regime follows its predecessors. In Pakistan, this is seen as a nuisance and a challenge to Pakistan's doctrine of strategic depth in Afghanistan.

With the success of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the arena of armed rebellion appears to have shifted to Pakistan. There has been a significant increase in militant attacks on Pakistani security and police forces since 2022, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces.

Most attacks are claimed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistani Taliban. The TTP and the Afghan Taliban have formed a symbiotic relationship for years, sharing sanctuary, tactics and resources, often in Waziristan and other Pakistani regions bordering Afghanistan.

Pakistan treated the Afghan Taliban as friends after 2001, in part to weaken any sense of cross-border Pashtun nationalism and in the hope of exploiting its influence over the Taliban in Afghanistan's development and in its relations with the UNITED STATES. In 2011, Michael Mullen, then American military chief, declared that the Haqqani network, a key element of the Afghan Taliban, was a real arm of the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI), the powerful Pakistani intelligence agency. Analysts predicted, as feared, that Pakistan's support for the Taliban to seize power in Afghanistan would lead to a Pyrrhic victory, with Pakistani fighting groups and other violent non-state actors feeling emboldened, not weakened. .

The importance and implications of tensions

The Taliban is unlikely to accept Pakistan's demands for action against TTP leaders in Afghanistan's border areas with Pakistan. Importantly, such action would disrupt the Taliban's balance with the TTP and open space for other, more extremist groups such as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). Taliban leaders are deploying the same logic that Pakistan has used for nearly two decades, rejecting demands from the former Afghan government and the United States to curb Taliban activities on its territory. Like Pakistan then, the Taliban now assert that the TTP is an internal issue of Pakistan and that Islamabad must resolve its problems domestically.

The Pakistani army will most likely continue to bomb Afghan territory with impunity, facing mild international condemnation. There is unfortunately a growing international precedent. Countries like Israel carry out cross-border airstrikes, citing threats to their security. Furthermore, the Pakistan Army, as the long-term custodian of the country's security, is under enormous pressure to demonstrate concrete actions to counter militancy and protect the country's infrastructure, including the country's invested economic projects. China in Balochistan. Attacking Afghan territory allows political messages to be transmitted to the Pakistani population by focusing on an external enemy. It also prevents the state from responding to growing domestic demands for political and socio-economic empowerment, particularly from Pakistani Pashtuns.

Meanwhile, the Taliban government in Afghanistan lacks the resources, an organized army, and any meaningful international partnership to counter Pakistan's assertiveness. In March 2024, a senior Taliban military official said the United States maintained control over Afghan airspace, explaining the occasional appearance of American drones in Afghan skies.

Although Taliban leaders have promised retaliation, it is unclear how they might do so against a militarily powerful neighbor that also happens to be their long-term strategic backer. Pakistan also has other levers of influence against the Taliban: most trade to landlocked Afghanistan passes through Pakistan, and Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees for decades.

However, Pakistan's military action in Afghanistan will fuel anti-Pakistani sentiments among the Afghan population and further alienate Pakistani Pashtuns. As the Afghan case shows, insurgencies feed on societal resentment, deprivation and the disillusionment of young people.

Solutions require leaders to be bold in addressing long-term grievances. A reactionary show of force may result in momentary gestures of note, but achieving peace is generally an art of wisdom and patience. Ironically, Pakistan and Afghanistan offer viable pathways for regional economic integration, linking the Central and South Asian regions. Unfortunately, a generation's lack of political will and vision among leaders and the securitization of bilateral relations have hampered the prosperity of more than 300 million people in both countries.

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